In certain ways, the 49ers already have exceeded expectations.
When they lost Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Ricky Pearasll early in the season, their season could have gone in the tank. But, it didn’t. They’re 9-4. And if they win next Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, they most likely will make the playoffs.
So, what would a successful season look like for the 49ers? How far do they have to go to feel good about themselves?
Let’s say the 49ers lose in the first round of the playoffs, but it’s a road game, and their offense scores more than 30 points while their defense is the reason they lose. In that case, the 49ers could blame the loss on the injuries to Bosa and Warner and feel good about themselves going into 2026 because those two will return.
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But, the defense has played surprisingly well the past three games — Robert Saleh has gotten that unit to overperform. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense is good, but it’s not elite or explosive the way it needs to be.
And the quarterback, Brock Purdy, has played extremely cautiously for the past six quarters since he threw three interceptions on three straight drives in the first half against the Carolina Panthers.
When the 49ers lost to the Rams four weeks ago, George Kittle said they still can win the Super Bowl because their offense can be elite while their defense can be good enough. So far, their defense has exceeded expectations, while their offense hasn’t yet lived up to Kittle’s expectations.
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So let’s say the 49ers make it to the second round of the playoffs. But in that game, the offense falters, Purdy throws an interception and the 49ers lose, then they’ll have extremely uncomfortable questions to face this offseason.
Was Purdy worth the contract the 49ers gave him? Would Mac Jones have played better and won that playoff game? Should the 49ers have mended their relationship with Brandon Aiyuk so he could play during the playoffs? Would they have won with him on the field? Do the 49ers need a new running back? Can they expect Christian McCaffrey to handle such a big workload two seasons in a row?
These are very awkward questions the 49ers do not want to face. That’s why if they lose, they’re going to want to blame their defense. It’s already in position to be the scapegoat. Just don’t let Purdy and the offense be the reason the season falls short. That would be a success.
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