NFL Overreactions: Daniel Jones tears Achilles, Texans beat Chiefs
USA TODAY Sports’ Prince Grimes ‘overreacts’ to some of the best games from Sunday’s Week 14 slate.
There are just four weeks left of the NFL regular season and the NFL bye weeks are over, meaning every team has just four games left to make a late run at the NFL playoffs or improve its NFL postseason position.
What is each team’s current NFL playoff probability entering the NFL Week 15 schedule?
What is each team’s potential path to the postseason now?
Check out our NFL Week 15 power rankings to see where each team stands in chances to keep playing when the regular season concludes, with some teams sitting pretty in the NFL playoff picture, others in good postseason position, many with a lot of work to do and several already eliminated and thinking about next season.
NFL playoff probabilities courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats. Previous ranking in parentheses.
NFL Week 15 picks: Falcons at Buccaneers | Browns at Bears | Ravens at Bengals | Cardinals at Texans | Jets at Jaguars | Chargers at Chiefs | Bills at Patriots | Commanders at Giants | Raiders at Eagles | Packers at Broncos | Lions at Rams | Panthers at Saints | Colts at Seahawks | Titans at 49ers | Vikings at Cowboys | Dolphins at Steelers | The Republic’s picks
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The 2-11 Raiders have now dropped seven straight games, the longest losing skid in the AFC. Is there relief in sight? Las Vegas faces the Eagles, Texans, Giants and Chiefs to end the season. What will the team do at QB?
The Titans, at 2-11, are not in playoff contention, but they are in contention for the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Tony Pollard (25 carries, 161 yards, two touchdowns) shone in the win over Cleveland.
The 2-11 Giants are out of playoff contention and focused on next season. Jaxson Dart and company have a chance to get some wins to end the season with the Commanders, Vikings, Raiders and Cowboys on the schedule.
29. Washington Commanders (23)
Hard to believe that the 3-10 Commanders went 12-5 last season. The season is over for Washington, and it needs to protect Jayden Daniels by not playing him another snap. He probably shouldn’t have played against the Vikings.
NFL playoff probability: 0%NFL Week 14: Lost to Minnesota Vikings, 31-0NFL Week 15: Sunday at New York Giants (Dec. 14)28. New York Jets (27)
The 3-10 Jets are a mess and could need a complete roster overhaul. At the top of the team’s wish list? QB. Tyrod Taylor can’t seem to stay healthy enough to be a bridge QB possibility for New York.
The Cardinals fell to 3-10 with the loss to the Rams, their fifth straight loss. Is it time for Arizona to clean house and start over? The team is well behind the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers in the NFC West. Arizona’s final four games are against the Texans, Falcons, Bengals and Rams.
NFL playoff probability: 0%NFL Week 14: Sunday vs Los Angeles Rams (Dec. 7)NFL Week 15: Sunday at Houston Texans (Dec. 14)26. Cleveland Browns (28)
The Browns are now 3-10 after falling to the Titans and are in preparation mode for the future. Shedeur Sanders made his case to be the team’s QB of the future with a 23-for-42, 364-yard, three-touchdown performance, but the team’s head-scratching play call on a late two-point conversion attempt left him without a chance to tie the game.
NFL playoff probability: 0%NFL Week 14: Lost to Tennessee Titans, 31-29NFL Week 15: Sunday at Chicago Bears (Dec. 14)
The 3-10 Saints have a lot of questions surrounding them for next season, including what to do at QB. Is Tyler Shough the answer at the position in New Orleans? He rushed seven times for 55 yards and two scores, while going 13-for-20 passing for 144 yards, with one pass intercepted, in the win over the Bucs.
NFL playoff probability: 0%NFL Week 14: Beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 24-20NFL Week 15: Sunday vs Carolina Panthers (Dec. 14)24. Atlanta Falcons (24)
The 4-9 Falcons are no longer in playoff contention and will have to decide which direction to take the roster. The current direction? Atlanta has lost seven of eight games after a 3-2 start. Not the way you want to go.
NFL playoff probability: 0%NFL Week 14: Lost to Seattle Seahawks, 37-9NFL Week 15: Thursday Night Football at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Dec. 11)
While the 4-9 Bengals are technically still alive to make the playoffs, it would take a miracle for Cincinnati to make the postseason. That’s too bad, because Cincy’s offense, with Joe Burrow, is a lot of fun to watch. The Bengals have the Ravens, Dolphins, Cardinals and Browns up next and would need to go 4-0 and get a ton of help to make the NFL playoffs.
22. Minnesota Vikings (26)
The 5-8 Vikings picked up a huge win over the Commanders, but it was probably a case of too little, too late. Minnesota’s chances to make the postseason are now ridiculously slim. It would have to beat the Cowboys, Giants, Lions and Packers and get tons of help. It’s not going to happen.
NFL playoff probability: 1%NFL Week 14: Beat Washington Commanders, 31-0NFL Week 15: Sunday Night Football at Dallas Cowboys (Dec. 14)
21. Baltimore Ravens (17)
How big was the loss to Pittsburgh for the 6-7 Ravens? The team’s playoff chances plummeted with the loss. The Ravens have lost two straight and end the season with games against the Bengals, Patriots, Packers and Steelers. They might need to go 4-0, or at least 3-1, to have a shot at the postseason.
NFL playoff probability: 32%NFL Week 14: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers, 27-22NFL Week 15: Sunday at Cincinnati Bengals (Dec. 14)20. Miami Dolphins (21)
Tua Tagovailoa and the 6-7 Dolphins have won four games in a row to keep their playoff hopes alive, but that 2-7 start really hurt. Miami’s path to the postseason would need wins over the Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers and Patriots and a lot of help.
NFL playoff probability: 1%NFL Week 14: Beat New York Jets, 34-10NFL Week 15: Monday Night Football at Pittsburgh Steelers (Dec. 15)19. Dallas Cowboys (10)
The Cowboys’ postseason chances are slim, but Dallas, at 6-6-1, has not been eliminated yet. How long can Dak Prescott and the Cowboys stay in the race? They have the Vikings, Chargers, Commanders and Giants left on the schedule.
NFL playoff probability: 7%NFL Week 14: Lost to Detroit Lions, 44-30NFL Week 15: Sunday Night Football vs Minnesota Vikings (Dec. 14)18. Kansas City Chiefs (16)
The 6-7 Chiefs sit behind the Broncos and Chargers in the AFC West. Their only hope of making the playoffs now would be to secure a wild-card postseason berth with a strong finish, but it would likely take a 4-0 finish and some help. Kansas City faces the Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders to conclude the regular season.
NFL playoff probability: 14%NFL Week 14: Lost to Houston Texans, 20-10NFL Week 15: Sunday vs Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 14)17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19)
The 7-6 Buccaneers are now tied with the idle 7-6 Panthers for the NFC South lead and still have a great shot to make the postseason, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The division crown could come down to the final game of the season. Baker Mayfield and company host Carolina in Week 18 after playing the Falcons, Panthers and Dolphins in the next three weeks.
NFL playoff probability: 71%NFL Week 14: Lost to New Orleans Saints, 24-20NFL Week 15: Thursday Night Football vs Atlanta Falcons (Dec. 11)16. Carolina Panthers (18)
The Panthers are 7-6 and trending in a much more favorable direction than the Buccaneers in the NFC South. Their remaining schedule? At the Saints, vs Buccaneers, vs Seahawks, at Buccaneers. Bryce Young and company would likely need to win the division to make the postseason.
NFL playoff probability: 29%NFL Week 14: OffNFL Week 15: Sunday at New Orleans Saints (Dec. 14)
Just a few weeks ago, the Colts were in position to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. They are now 8-5 after losses in four of their last five games. The loss to the Jaguars dropped Indy out of first place in the AFC South. The path to make the playoffs now won’t be easy with Daniel Jones injured and the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars and Texans on deck.
NFL playoff probability: 43%NFL Week 14: Lost to Jacksonville Jaguars, 36-19NFL Week 15: Sunday at Seattle Seahawks (Dec. 14)14. Pittsburgh Steelers (20)
The win over the Ravens did wonders for the 7-6 Steelers’ playoff chances. Aaron Rodgers and company now have a 1-game lead over Baltimore in the AFC North, with the Dolphins, Lions, Browns and Ravens still to come. They control their destiny in the division and would make the postseason if they could hold off the Ravens.
NFL playoff probability: 67%NFL Week 14: Beat Baltimore Ravens, 27-22NFL Week 15: Monday Night Football vs Miami Dolphins (Dec. 15)13. Philadelphia Eagles (9)
The 8-5 Eagles, thanks to an abysmal NFC East, have a great shot at making the NFL playoffs even with the overtime loss to the Chargers. NFL Next Gen Stats gives them a 93% chance at the postseason. Philadelphia has the Raiders, Commanders, Bills and Commanders the last four weeks of the season.
NFL playoff probability: 93%NFL Week 14: Lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 22-19NFL Week 15: Sunday vs Las Vegas Raiders (Dec. 14)12. Houston Texans (13)
The Texans are 8-5 after the win against the Chiefs, behind the Jaguars and tied with the Colts in the AFC South. Don’t count Houston out of the division race and the AFC playoff race yet. It faces the Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers and Colts over the final four weeks of the season and has now won five straight games.
NFL playoff probability: 87%NFL Week 14: Beat Kansas City Chiefs, 20-10NFL Week 15: Sunday vs Arizona Cardinals (Dec. 14)11. Detroit Lions (14)
The Lions, at 8-5, currently sit outside the NFL playoff picture. They are also behind the Bears and Packers in the NFC North. Detroit’s path to the postseason won’t be easy. It has the Rams, Steelers, Vikings and Bears over its last four weeks of the regular season.
NFL playoff probability: 53%NFL Week 14: Beat Dallas Cowboys, 44-30NFL Week 15: Sunday at Los Angeles Rams (Dec. 14)10. Los Angeles Chargers (12)
How big was the Monday Night Football win for the 9-4 Chargers? A loss to the Eagles would have dropped their playoff chances to 50%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The win over Philadelphia put their playoff probability at 74%. The Chargers end the season with games against the Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos.
NFL playoff probability: 74%NFL Week 14: Beat Philadelphia Eagles in overtime, 22-19NFL Week 15: Sunday at Kansas City Chiefs (Dec. 14)
9. Chicago Bears (7)
The Bears lost their NFC North lead and fell to 9-4 with the loss at Green Bay, but they are still in position for a playoff berth. Can they stay that way? The last game of the season for Chicago could be a huge one against the Lions. Caleb Williams and company have the Browns, Packers and 49ers on deck first.
NFL playoff probability: 64%NFL Week 14: Packers 28, Bears 21 (Dec. 7)NFL Week 15: Sunday vs Cleveland Browns (Dec. 14)8. San Francisco 49ers (8)
The 9-4 49ers exit their idle week in great position to earn a playoff berth after having won three straight. Brock Purdy and San Francisco have the Titans, Colts, Bears and Seahawks over the final four weeks.
NFL playoff probability: 90%NFL Week 14: OffNFL Week 15: Sunday vs Tennessee Titans (Dec. 14)7. Jacksonville Jaguars (11)
The Jaguars’ playoff chances continue to rise. The team is now 9-4 and in first place in the AFC South. It has won four straight games. Games against the Jets, Broncos, Colts and Titans remain, but Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville are trending up in the NFL playoff picture.
NFL playoff probability: 98%NFL Week 14: Beat Indianapolis Colts, 36-19NFL Week 15: Sunday vs New York Jets (Dec. 14)6. Buffalo Bills (6)
The win over the Bengals made Buffalo 9-4 on the season and was huge for the team’s playoff probability. Can Buffalo catch New England for the AFC East crown? They are two games back before their NFL Week 15 showdown. Josh Allen and company end the season against the Browns, Eagles and Jets, so they should at least win two of those games.
NFL playoff probability: 96%NFL Week 14: Beat Cincinnati Bengals, 39-34NFL Week 15: Sunday at New England Patriots (Dec. 14)
The NFC North continues to provide intrigue, with the 9-3-1 Packers atop the division standings. Green Bay has a huge game against the Broncos up next, with the Bears, Ravens and Vikings the final three weeks of the season. This team controls its own destiny in the NFC North and has a shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference.
NFL playoff probability: 94%NFL Week 14: Beat Chicago Bears, 28-21NFL Week 15: Sunday at Denver Broncos (Dec. 14)4. Seattle Seahawks (3)
The 10-3 Seahawks currently have a great chance at making the playoffs, but they do have some tests remaining. The final four games for Seattle are against the Colts, Rams, Panthers and 49ers. Would a 2-2 record get Seattle in? This team wants to win the NFC West, however.
NFL playoff probability: 98%NFL Week 14: Beat Atlanta Falcons, 34-9NFL Week 15: Sunday vs Indianapolis Colts (Dec. 14)
3. Los Angeles Rams (4)
The 10-3 Rams sit atop the NFC standings after a dominating performance at Arizona, a team they face again in NFL Week 18. Will Los Angeles be the team to beat in the NFC? The team hosts the Lions in NFL Week 15 before a crucial game against the Seahawks in NFL Week 16. NFL Week 17 will see the Rams at the Falcons.
NFL playoff probability: 98%NFL Week 14: Beat Arizona Cardinals, 45-17NFL Week 15: Sunday vs Detroit Lions (Dec. 14)2. Denver Broncos (2)
The Broncos, at 11-2, have now won 10 straight games and taken over the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. It won’t be easy keeping the win streak going with a game against the Packers up next. Tests also remain against the Jaguars, Chiefs and Chargers. Still, Denver is sitting pretty to make the postseason with four games left.
NFL playoff probability: 99%NFL Week 14: Beat Las Vegas Raiders, 24-17NFL Week 15: Sunday vs Green Bay Packers (Dec. 14)1. New England Patriots (1)
The 11-2 Patriots have won 10 in a row to become a virtual lock for the postseason ahead of a huge game against the Bills in Week 15. After Buffalo, New England plays the Ravens, Jets and Dolphins to end the regular season. Could Drake Maye and the Patriots earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC?
NFL playoff probability: 99%NFL Week 14: OffNFL Week 15: Sunday vs Buffalo Bills (Dec. 14)
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