At 10-3, the Seattle Seahawks are practically a lock to be one of seven NFC teams to make the playoffs this year.
Everything else about their postseason fate is up in the air.
Seattle’s odds of making the playoffs are 98 percent, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. The final four games are against teams with winning records. The Seahawks host the 8-5 Indianapolis Colts — who just lost Daniel Jones for the season and are working out retired quarterback Philip Rivers on Tuesday — then rematch the 10-3 Los Angeles Rams in the final home game of the regular season before road trips to play the Carolina Panthers (7-6) and San Francisco 49ers (9-4).
The Seahawks, Rams and 49ers all have playoff odds of at least 94 percent, but the Rams (57 percent) have better division title chances than Seattle (31) and San Francisco (11). Los Angeles hosts the Detroit Lions (8-5) in Week 15, then visits Seattle, faces the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) on the road and closes the regular season at home versus the Arizona Cardinals (3-10).
The 49ers were idle in Week 14. Their final four games are as follows: home versus the Tennessee Titans (2-11), on the road against the Colts, home against the Chicago Bears (8-4) and then the rematch with Seattle at Levi’s Stadium.
Seattle’s Week 16 rematch with the Rams on “Thursday Night Football” looms large, though it’s technically still possible the division could come down to those Week 18 results. The NFC West winner has a decent shot at snagging home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Rams (48 percent) currently have the best odds, followed by the Seahawks (29), the 9-3-1 Green Bay Packers (10) and the 49ers (8). No other NFC team has odds above 4 percent.
The Packers’ remaining schedule is as follows: on the road against the Denver Broncos (11-2) and Bears, home against the Baltimore Ravens (6-7) and on the road versus the Minnesota Vikings (5-8). The Bears host the Cleveland Browns (3-10) and Packers, travel to the 49ers and then host the Lions.
The Seahawks are pleased with where they sit heading into Week 15. The only scoreboard that matters is their own. Few teams are in better position in that regard: The Seahawks are relatively healthy and playing well, and if they run the table and finish 14-3, the top spot is theirs. At this point in the season, that’s all any team can ask for.
“We feel really good,” receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba said of the team’s mindset Sunday after Seattle’s 37-9 win over the Falcons. “We feel really confident. This is a big stretch for us, and we know that. Championship football heading into the playoffs. We’re confident. We’re just going to try to keep building this mojo and win out.”
By points per drive, Seattle has the eighth-best offense and the second-best defense (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise). By special teams EPA, Seattle trails only the New York Jets and the 49ers.
The Seahawks have three defensive touchdowns, tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the league lead. They’ve scored on punt and kickoff returns, trailing only the Jets in special teams touchdowns. They are among a handful of teams to block multiple field goal attempts, and their kickoff coverage is one of the NFL’s best (their punt return average is the opposite, however).
The offense is the only real question mark, largely because of ball security. Seattle is second in giveaways as a team, and quarterback Sam Darnold leads the league with 16 turnovers. Darnold is second to the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy in turnover rate.
That said, Darnold is still ninth in EPA per dropback despite those turnovers, and he’s second in explosive pass rate behind Green Bay’s Jordan Love. On plays that don’t involve a turnover, he leads in the league in that same category. When Darnold takes care of the ball, he’s operating like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. That’s the version of Darnold they’ll need during this final stretch.
“If you just look at how many times we’ve turned the ball over, I think we’d all say it’s too many,” coach Mike Macdonald said. “But I think Sam is playing really good football for us. There’s a couple plays a game where we’ve got to protect the ball a little bit better. But when Sam is clicking, and he has been for the majority of the season, we’re playing really efficient football, and he’s leading the charge for us.”
Turnovers can be fluky and dependent on how the ball bounces. For instance, Darnold had similar-looking tight-window throws batted in the air against the Titans and Falcons. The former fell to the ground; the latter was picked off. Nothing about Darnold’s process was very different on those plays. He fumbled twice against the Vikings, but receiver Cooper Kupp’s hustle prevented the first one from being a turnover.
The team has had Darnold’s back the last couple of weeks as well. His lost fumble against the Vikings led to linebacker Ernest Jones IV’s 85-yard interception return touchdown. On Sunday, Darnold’s interception gave Atlanta the ball at Seattle’s 30. The drive ended with rookie Nick Emmanwori blocking a field goal.
There is a question of sustainability when it comes to the Seahawks. Their first couple of losses ended with Darnold turning the ball over (albeit after scoring 35 points in that second loss). He had four interceptions in their third loss. All three of those games came against potential playoff opponents. Seattle’s six conference wins are against teams with losing records. Can the defense bail out the offense against a quality opponent? Will it have to?
The answers remain unclear, but it’s also important to remember that every team has warts, even the contenders. The Rams are the closest thing to a complete team on Seattle’s side of the playoff bracket, and the Week 11 game in Los Angeles went down to the wire, with both clubs likely feeling good about their chances of winning the rematch.
The Seahawks are likely feeling confident their quarterback won’t cough up the ball four times again. The Rams, meanwhile, probably feel quarterback Matthew Stafford, one of the leading MVP candidates, won’t play his least efficient game of the season and that receiver Davante Adams will gain more than 1 yard.
The logic is sound on both sides. The Seahawks and Rams are favored to win their games in Week 15, and if they handle business, the Week 16 rematch might carry even more weight than the first meeting. The stakes will be similar to Seattle’s Week 17 finale in 2019 against the 49ers, when the difference between the No. 1 and No. 5 seed was on the line.
A Seahawks victory would put them in the driver’s seat for the division title and the top seed. But it would also open the same doors for the 49ers. If Seattle beats L.A. in Week 16 and San Francisco wins out, the 49ers would win the division. (In that scenario, if the Packers win out, they would get the No. 1 seed. Otherwise, it would go to the Niners.)
The simulator currently lists the Seahawks’ chances at each playoff seed as follows:
No. 1 seed: 29 percent
No. 2 seed: 3 percent
No. 3 seed: less than 1 percent
No. 4 seed: less than 1 percent
No. 5 seed: 36 percent
No. 6 seed: 24 percent
No. 7 seed: 7 percent
The Seahawks have earned the right to control their fate. They’re one of four teams within the top 10 in points per drive on offense and defense (the Rams, Chiefs and Patriots are the others). Each week, the Seahawks talk about playing their style of football and maintaining the standard. If they continue to do both down the stretch, their goal of competing for a championship will be well within reach.