Jaguars will face a slightly tougher schedule but have a one-game lead over Houston

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Dolphins, Jaguars get big wins, Buccaneers lose | NFL wrapup video

The Jaguars are in control of the AFC South, the surging Dolphins win again to get in the wild card mix, while the Bucs lose to the lowly Saints.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans don’t play each other for the balance of the regular season, but they and their fan bases will be scoreboard-watching for the final month of the NFL season in the race for the AFC South championship. 

Following Sunday’s games, the Jaguars are 9-4 and the Texans 8-5. Indianapolis is tied with Houston for second, but does anyone expect the Colts to make a run with Riley Leonard at quarterback? Especially when their final month goes like this: at Seattle, home vs. San Francisco and Jacksonville, at Houston. 

Here’s a comparison of the Jaguars and the Texans as they go into the stretch run: 

Jaguars and Texans seeding 

The Jaguars are currently the third seed in the AFC playoffs, and Houston is seventh. They split during the regular season, but what if the Jaguars stumble and end up tied with the Texans?

The next tie-breakers are conference and division schedules and both teams currently have two conference losses and one division loss each. Stay tuned. The Jags have a one-game lead and obviously intend on keeping it that way.

Who has the toughest schedule? 

The Jaguars, but not by much. Jacksonville is home against the New York Jets (3-10) on Sunday (1 p.m., CBS), play at AFC West leader Denver (11-2), at Indianapolis (8-5) and then close at home vs. Tennessee (2-11). The Texans are home three of their last four games, against Arizona (3-10) on Sunday, Las Vegas (2-11) and Indianapolis (8-5) to close the season. Between Vegas and Indy, the Texans play at the Los Angeles Chargers (8-4). 

The Jaguars’ remaining opponents are 24-28 (.461). The Texans’ are 21-30 (.412). 

The real difference in the schedule is that the Jaguars will play three of four games outdoors, including the Dec. 21 game at Denver. The weather is supposed to be ideal when the Jets come to town but who knows about the final home game against the Titans? 

Houston, on the other hand, will play in domes for three of its last four games, with the only outdoor game coming in Los Angeles vs. the Chargers. 

Edge: Texans. 

Running and stopping the fun

December football in the NFL is about who can impose their will on the other team. That generally comes down to being able to run the ball and stop the run. 

The Jaguars are 14th in the NFL in rushing yards with 121.7 per game. Houston is 22nd, generating 105.7 per game. 

Both teams are superb at stopping the run. The Jaguars continue to lead the league in run defense, allowing only 83.0 yards per game. Houston is fifth, allowing 94.3 per game. 

The Jaguars clearly have the better bell-cow in Travis Etienne, who has 917 yards and seven touchdowns and is effective in short-yardage situations and the home-run ball. Houston has battled injuries at the position, and Woody Marks leads the lead with 554 yards. The Jaguars also have a younger, faster backup in Bhayshul Tuten to Houston’s Nick Chubb and quarterback Trevor Lawrence (251 yards, five TDs) is more of a threat running than Houston’s C.J. Stroud. 

Edge: Both stopping the run and running the ball, to the Jaguars. 

Which quarterback is playing better? 

Since Houston’s comeback victory over the Jaguars on Nov. 9, here are how each quarterback has performed: 

Lawrence: Four games, 65 of 109 (.596), 882 yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions; 17 rushing attempts, 79 yards and one TD. His passer rating is 94.67. 

Stroud: He was injured in the last meeting with the Jaguars and returned two games ago (Davis Mills was 3-0 in his absence). In those two games, Stroud is 37 of 66 (.561) for 479 yards, one touchdown and one interception. 

Lawrence is playing at his highest level of the season. The most important stat for both quarterbacks during that span is they haven’t lost a game since facing each other in Houston. 

Edge: Jaguars

Who’s got the better No. 1 receiver? 

The Jaguars’ go-to receiver in recent weeks has clearly been Jakobi Meyers (22 receptions for 284 yards and three touchdowns in five games), especially with injuries to Brian Thomas Jr., and Parker Washington. Thomas may yet emerge as Lawrence’s favorite target if he continues improving from his early slump but right now it’s Meyers. 

Houston’s top receiver remains the Jaguars’ nemesis, Nico Collins. Despite everyone in the stadium knowing Stroud will try to hit Collins deep, he eludes defenders and is seventh in the NFL in receiving yardage with 916 (on 61 receptions) for a 15.0 per-catch average. 

Edge: Texans

Who’s protecting the quarterback better? 

Despite a hodgepodge starting lineup (the Jaguars have started five offensive lines in six games since the bye week), Lawrence has been sacked only six times in four games since the Texans got to him five times in Houston. The Texans have also had some offensive line injuries but like the Jags, have patched a pretty good unit together in terms of pass protection. Lawrence has been sacked 32 times this season and Stroud and Mills have combined for 30. 

Edge: Texans but only by the margin of those two sacks. 

Who’s rushing the quarterback better? 

The Jaguars have improved as the season has gone on, with Josh Hines-Allen applying a steady stream of pressures. But injuries to Arik Armstead and Travon Walker have affected the pass rush and the Jaguars have only 25 sacks, compared to 32 for the Texans. Danielle Hunter, who terrorized the Jags on Nov. 9, has 11 sacks and Will Anderson Jr., 10.5. Hines-Allen leads the Jaguars with seven. 

Edge: Texans.

Who’s not beating themselves? 

Eliminating mistakes will be even more of a priority going forward, and the Jaguars still have too many self-inflicted wounds in the form of yellow flags. The Jaguars had eight penalties for 64 yards against the Colts and remain the league leader with 112 penalties — 22 of them falst starts. Houston is tied for eighth in the NFL with the most penalties, with 94. 

The Texans also are ahead of the Jaguars in turnover differential. They’re second in the league at +12, behind Chicago, while the Jaguars are tied for sixth at +8. The Jaguars defense and special teams have forced one more turnover than the Texans (23-22) but Lawrence has 11 interceptions and there have been four fumbles. 

Edge: Texans.