How soon can the Chargers clinch a playoff spot? (Louis via email)
Not to be the bearer of bad news right away, but the Chargers cannot clinch a playoff spot this weekend.
And that’s OK, it simply means the Bolts have some work to do in the weeks ahead.
But if we’re looking at a timeline, I believe the earliest the Chargers would be able to clinch a postseason spot is in Week 17 … which, ironically enough, is when the Bolts secured a spot last season.
As it stands now, the Chargers are currently 9-4 and in the fifth seed in the AFC playoff picture. The teams above the Bolts in the standings all either have more wins (11 for the Patriots and Broncos) or are leading their respective divisions (the nine-win Jaguars and seven-win Steelers).
The Texans and Colts each have eight wins and are below the Bolts while others such as the Chiefs, Ravens and Dolphins only have six wins.
The simple math is this: if the Chargers win their next three games — against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans — that would get them to 12 wins.
Those dozen wins would mean Kansas City, Baltimore and Miami couldn’t catch the Chargers. It would also mean Houston could only get to 11 total wins because the Chargers would beat the Texans in Week 17 in this scenario.
And, most importantly, the Colts would need to lose at least one game so there maximum win total would only be 11 wins.
In this very hypothetical scenario, let’s say the Colts lose to the Seahawks this weekend and drop to 8-6. Even if they win their final three games to get to 11 wins, the Chargers would already be in because their proposed three-game win streak would have them at 12 wins.
One final thing to consider here: if the Chargers stay hot, the AFC West crown would still very much be in play if the Broncos were to drop at least one of their next three games against the Packers, Jaguars and Chiefs.
As long as the Chargers are a game back of Denver in the win column heading into Week 18, the Bolts have a chance to win the division.
So, if the Bolts go 2-1 in their next three games to climb to 11-5 and the Broncos go 1-2 to get to 12-4, the Chargers could then claim the AFC West with a win in the regular-season finale.
According to The Athletic, the Chargers currently have a 13 percent chance to win the division. But those odds jump to 32 percent if the Chargers win and the Broncos lose Sunday.
Is it a longshot right now? Perhaps.
But it’s not completely out of the question if things break the Chargers way in the coming weeks.