Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has often made games against the Patriots look one-sided. In recent years, the Bills have been in control, with Allen outperforming every New England quarterback, including Mac Jones, Cam Newton, and Bailey Zappe.

Lately, though, things have changed. With Sunday coming up, the focus isn’t just on Allen’s dominance anymore. The quarterback matchup finally feels competitive again.

Bills’ Josh Allen Faces the Improved New England Patriots

Now, Drake Maye steps into the spotlight.

The Patriots have won ten games in a row, thanks in large part to strong play from second-year quarterback Maye. His quick progress has boosted the Patriots’ offense and put him in the MVP conversation with Matthew Stafford. Against the Giants, Maye had his sixth game this season with at least 75% completions and two or more touchdowns, showing how much he’s helped the team stay consistent and win.

Looking back at Allen, his record against New England is mixed. Some games were dominant, others less so. With Maye now on the field, Allen can’t count on having the upper hand anymore. The Patriots currently have a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs, while the Bills currently have a 86.2% chance to make the playoffs, according to PFSN Playoffs Metrics.

Allen’s New England Resume By the Numbers

Since 2000, Allen’s 2021 Wild Card game against New England ranks as the sixth-best single performance. The Bills scored seven touchdowns and never had to punt.

Here’s how his QBi scores look against New England:
> 12 total games
> QBi range: 68.2 to 96.2
> Average grade: high C to low B range

Allen’s best games vs New England come when Buffalo’s offense is healthy. His worst showings are when the Patriots force him off script and make him chase possessions.

That is what makes the Week 5 meeting with Drake Maye matter so much. Allen’s 2025 performance vs New England was graded at 79.1, but nowhere near the overwhelming Allen that Patriots fans grew used to seeing.

Meanwhile, Maye’s efficient passing and decision-making directly led the Patriots to a higher QBi grade and their biggest win of the season, illustrating how his presence transforms the quarterback matchup into a genuine contest.

The Shift: Maye Gives the Patriots A Shot

For the first time since the Brady era, New England has a quarterback whose play and leadership have clearly raised the team’s level. Maye’s skill with tough throws gives the Patriots a real match for Allen, making every possession count.

With Mike Vrabel as coach, the Patriots have built an offense where Maye avoids risky plays but can change a drive with a single throw. He takes care of the football and comes through in big moments. Their Week 5 win wasn’t a fluke, with the Patriots giving Buffalo its first loss of the season.

Trends That Define Allen Against the Patriots

Based on the QBi data:

When Allen gets off to a fast start, the game often gets out of hand. His best games against New England happen when the Bills score early and control the tempo.
When New England forces him into long drives, Allen’s grades go down. His lowest scores came in games where he had to put together several ten-play drives.
When Allen faces late pressure, he gets more unpredictable. In several games, including 2023 and 2024, his decisions got worse as the pocket collapsed late in the game.
Maye puts pressure on every play. If Allen falls behind him on the scoreboard, he tends to force things, and that’s when New England can take the ball away.

What This Rivalry Looks Like Now

This isn’t Allen against a rebuilding team or a temporary quarterback anymore. Now, he’s finally up against an equal.

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That’s why this game feels different, and the Patriots have a real shot at winning a title.
The Bills still have five straight division titles behind them, but now the AFC East’s top quarterback matchup is set for a real showdown. Sunday is finally a battle between equals.

This rivalry isn’t at the level of Brady-Manning yet, but it’s getting there. With two franchises and two top young quarterbacks, there’s real potential for greatness ahead.