20man: Math was my worst subject in school, Cole.
If they finish 4-0 and get to 12-5, it means they went on a tear to finish the season and are playing their best football at the absolute perfect time. A 12-win team has been the No. 1 seed twice since the 14-team format began in 2020. There are a bunch of teams that can get to 12 wins and a lot of them play each other down the stretch. To get the No. 1 seed, the Lions would still need help but a 4-0 finish would guarantee a playoff spot and put them in the conversation for a division title and a top four seed depending on what happens with Green Bay (one and a half game lead over Detroit) down the stretch.
A 3-1 finish gets them to 11-6 and puts them in a good spot for the Wild Card depending on what happens with Green Bay (9-3-1), Seattle (10-3), San Francisco (9-4), LA Rams (10-3) and Chicago (9-4) ahead of them. In this scenario, the loss being to the Pittsburgh Steelers from the AFC Week 16 would be the best scenario due to conference tie break. A loss to Chicago is the worst-case scenario with their chances of making playoff going from better than 90 percent if the loss is to either LA, Pittsburgh, or Minnesota to 75 percent if it’s Chicago.
Green Bay still plays Chicago and the Bears also play in San Francisco Week 17. Seattle and San Francisco play Week 18. The Packers have a tough game this week in Denver and have Chicago and Baltimore remaining on their schedule. If Detroit goes 3-1 to get to 11 wins, I see them almost certainly in the Wild Card and the division title will depend on Green Bay losing three of their last four and Chicago going at least 2-2 with Detroit beating them Week 18 in Chicago.
If Detroit goes 2-2 to finish, they’ll get to 10-7 and will need a lot of help. Those two wins will need to be against the Rams and Bears to give them a shot, but it would be a longer shot.