Week 15 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our NFL best bets, including a play in Chargers-Chiefs

Week 15 of the NFL season began with shocking Thursday Night Football game in which the Atlanta Falcons came back from a 28-14 fourth-quarter deficit to beat beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-28 as 6-point underdogs.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Ed Feng and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 15 of the NFL season.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 41.5)

Jacob: On Monday night, the Chargers picked off Jalen Hurts four times in a 22-19 overtime win over the Eagles. (They also forced and recovered a Hurts fumble on the same play that they intercepted the reigning Super Bowl MVP).

This week, the Bolts go up against a two-time Super Bowl MVP in Patrick Mahomes, who threw just one fewer interception than Hurts in Week 14 — the Chiefs’ quarterback completed three passes to the Houston Texans in a 20-10 loss.

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Mahomes has now been intercepted in five of his last six games, with eight of his 10 picks on the season coming in that span.

Like Houston, the Chargers have 15 interceptions on the season and trail only the Bears (18) in that category. They’ve also thieved Mahomes six times in the last 10 regular-season meetings.

And while Mahomes did play a clean game against L.A. in Week 1 in Brazil, he was picked at least once by the Chargers in five of the previous six seasons.

Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 INTs (+105)

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5, 41.5)

Jacob: Since the 2018 season kicked off, the Jaguars have been a double-digit favorite a grand total of two times. The Jaguars were a 10-point home favorite against both Cincinnati in Week 4 of 2023 and Tennessee in Week 3 of 2018.

Results: Jacksonville fell 34-31 to the Bengals in overtime and 9-6 to the Titans.

The last time the Jags laid as many 13.5 points (as it is Sunday against the visiting New York Jets)? You have to flip the calendar all the way back to Week 16 of 2007, when they clobbered the Raiders 49-11 as a 13.5-point favorite.

I get it: The Jets are coming off an ugly 34-10 home loss to Miami, falling to 3-10. And they have virtually no chance of leaving Jacksonville with victory No. 4, especially with Brady Cook starting at QB.

All that being said, New York has played six games away from MetLife Stadium this year and hasn’t once lost by more than 13 points.

Finally, this is a major sandwich/letdown spot for the Jaguars. They’re coming off a blowout win over the Colts in a battle for first place in the AFC South and have road trips on deck at Denver (Week 16) and Indianapolis (Week 17).

Play the ugly ’dog in this one.

Bet: Jets +13.5 (-110)

Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 40.5) at New Orleans Saints

Feng: With over 200 pass attempts, we are starting to get a feel for New Orleans rookie QB Tyler Shough. In my adjusted numbers, Shough is expected to have a 39.6% passing success rate, which isn’t terrible for a rookie compared to the NFL average of 42.7%.

In fact, Shough has the same success rate as Bryce Young (39.7%). The Carolina QB has had some fantastic games against Atlanta and San Francisco but has yet to show consistency on a play-by-play, game-by-game basis.

The New Orleans pass defense is NFL average this season, probably a very pleasant surprise for a team rated dead last in the league this preseason. My best numbers make this game a pick-em.

Bet: New Orleans +2.5

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5, 44.5)

Jacob: The Titans posted their second victory of the season in Week 14, holding on 31-29 at Cleveland.

How did Tennessee handle success following its first win (a 22-21 road upset of Arizona in Week 5)? By going to Las Vegas and losing 20-10 as a 5-point underdog.

Last year, the Titans won a whopping three games. They followed those victories with a 20-17 loss to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point home favorite; a 27-17 loss at the Chargers as an 8.5-point underdog; and a 42-19 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog.

Yep, since the 2024 season kicked off, Tennessee is 0-4 SU and ATS immediately after a victory.

That’s reason alone to fade the Titans as a huge underdog Sunday. Additional reasons: They’re back on the road again, this time on the West Coast; they’re facing the 49ers, who are on a 3-0 SU and ATS heater; and San Francisco’s last five wins have been double-digit blowouts (with victory margins of 10, 10, 19, 11 and 18 points),

Tennessee has lost by two-plus touchdowns six times this year. I think it happens again on Sunday.

Bet: 49ers -12.5 (-115)

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 43)

Jacob: Jonathan Taylor’s rushing totals in his last four games on U.S. soil: 45, 58, 85 and 74 yards.

Yes, wedged in between those four contests was a 244-yard Week 10 performance against the Falcons in Berlin. But even in that game, 19 of Taylor’s 32 carries went for 4 yards or fewer. It also bears mentioning that Atlanta’s defense ranks 24th in the NFL against the run.

This week, Taylor faces the league’s fourth-best rushing defense — the Seahawks surrender just 91.2 yards per game. They also yield 3.81 yards per rush; only Denver (3.70) is better.

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More important than all of that, Taylor won’t be taking handoffs from Daniel Jones on Sunday (or the rest of the season, for that matter). Rather, he’ll be receiving the pigskin from either a rookie (Riley Leonard); a career backup (Brett Rypien); or a 44-year-old grandfather who hasn’t taken an NFL snap in five years (Philip Rivers).

Translation: Seattle’s already-stout defense is going to load the box, key on Taylor for 60 minutes and gamble that whoever is under center for Indianapolis won’t be able to take advantage of one-on-one coverage.

Bet: Jonathan Taylor under 72.5 rushing yards (-118)

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 48)

Feng: Dak Prescott has had an amazing season, and part of the reason is a 2.1% interception rate, better than the 2.2% NFL average. However, Prescott does put the football in dangerous situations a lot. I track this by bad ball rate, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended (plays in which the defense gets a hand on the football) per attempt.

Prescott has had a bad ball rate of 14.5% this season compared to the NFL average of 12.6%. This is third worst among active starters (fourth if you include Geno Smith). My model gives a 60% chance he throws a pick against the Vikings.

Bet: Dak Prescott over 0.5 INTs (-135 or better)

Week 15 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our NFL best bets, including a play in Chargers-Chiefs

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