The Miami Dolphins are on a roll with five wins in their last six games and four consecutive victories. But even if they win their last four games of the year and finish the 2025 season with a 10-7 record, a trip to the playoffs is unlikely.
The New York Times’ NFL Playoff Simulator calculates that even if the Dolphins win out, they’re looking at about a 13 percent chance at the postseason.
With the New England Patriots already 11-2 on the year, the AFC East is officially out of reach for the Dolphins. And Miami’s 3-6 record in games against AFC opponents, which includes losses to the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, and Baltimore Ravens, leaves not many tiebreaker scenarios going the Dolphins’ way.
So how could they get in? By leapfrogging a pair of contenders that crash and burn down the stretch. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, and Chargers are all 9-4, and the Colts and Houston Texans are both 8-5. The Dolphins need to catch (and likely pass) two of those teams.
Here’s all five of those teams, ranked from the least likely to most likely to be caught by the Dolphins:
Jaguars (9-4)
Remaining games: vs. Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, vs. Titans
Jacksonville is only a couple years removed from the 2023 season when it lost five of its last six to plummet from the AFC’s No. 1 seed to outside the playoff picture altogether. But with a 6-2 record in conference play, the Jaguars only need one more win to put the Dolphins out of reach.
With home games against the Jets and Titans, two of the worst teams in the NFL, it feels safe to say the Dolphins won’t be catching the Jaguars.
Chargers (9-4)
Remaining games: at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos
The Chargers have one of the toughest remaining schedules of the five contenders on this list. There’s three road games and no games against a team with fewer than six wins.
The problem for Miami is that the head-to-head loss against LA (not to mention the Chargers’ 7-2 record in AFC play) means the Chargers can’t win another game. With the NFL’s No. 4 ranked defense and No. 11 offense, it’d be a shock if LA can’t find at least one more victory down the stretch.
Texans (8-5)
Remaining games: vs. Cardinals, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, vs. Colts
The Texans are only two games ahead of the Dolphins, but they’re absolutely rolling right now. Houston is riding a five-game win streak and is No. 1 in both points and yards allowed.
With a 7-2 record against AFC opponents, the Texans only need two more wins to put the Dolphins out of reach. Back-to-back matchups against the 3-10 Cardinals and 2-11 Raiders offer the opportunity to get that done sooner rather than later.
Bills (9-4)
Remaining games: at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
The Bills are the only tiebreaker friendly team on this list for the Dolphins.
If the Bills struggle down the stretch and finish 10-7, their record in AFC East play could take precedence over their conference record in a tie with Miami. For now, Buffalo is 2-2 in the division after splitting its season series with the Dolphins. Finishing 1-3 in their last four games would mean a 3-3 or 2-4 record for the Bills. Miami would be 4-2 if it won out.
Alas, Buffalo can erase that drama by winning two more games.
Colts (8-5)
Remaining games: at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans
The Achilles injury suffered by Daniel Jones makes the Colts an obvious candidate for last on this list.
There’s a chance 44-year-old Philip Rivers takes over to try and save Indianapolis. For now, it’s sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard in charge of shepherding the Colts back into the mix. Making matters worse for Indianapolis is the fact that it will have to do that by winning some matchups against four teams with a combined 36-16 record.