How Rams win or loss to Lions will impact No. 1 seed odds

The Rams are still the favorites to earn a first-round bye but they have to take care of the Lions first

With four weeks remaining in the regular season, the Los Angeles Rams have a light grip on the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Only the top spot in the conference earns a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, so it gives that team a huge advantage.

The Rams must maintain their position atop the NFC for the next month, beginning with a game against the Detroit Lions on Sunday. And while fans might have one eye on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16, this matchup with Detroit has pretty significant playoff implications for Los Angeles.

Unfortunately, they stand to lose more with a loss than they stand to gain with a win. Here’s a look at how Sunday’s game will impact the Rams’ chances of earning the No. 1 seed, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator.

Rams’ current odds for No. 1 seed: 47%Odds with a win: 56%Odds with a loss: 27%Odds with a win + Seahawks loss: 67%Odds with a loss + Seahawks win: 26%Odds with a loss + Packers win: 23%

As you can see, a win by the Rams doesn’t swing their first-round bye odds nearly as much as a loss will. That is, unless the Seahawks somehow lose to the Colts this weekend, which would boost the Rams’ odds to 67%.

Even a Rams loss and Seahawks win won’t end Los Angeles’ chances to secure the No. 1 seed. That scenario would put the Seahawks one game ahead of the Rams, but Los Angeles can take back the lead by beating Seattle in Week 16, sweeping the Seahawks and taking the all-important tiebreaker. After that, the Rams would just need to win out.

The other team the Rams need to look out for is the Packers, who are facing the Broncos this week. If the Rams lose and they win, Green Bay will leapfrog the Rams and have a good chance to earn the No. 1 seed. The Packers would be 10-3-1 and the Rams would be 10-4, meaning no matter what Los Angeles does down the stretch, it wouldn’t be able to catch Green Bay if the Packers win out.

Worst-case scenario? The Rams lose and both the Packers and Seahawks win. Best-case? Rams win and both the Packers and Seahawks lose, boosting Los Angeles’ odds to 74%.