Stunning Stat Explains How Broken Bucs Are
December 13th, 2025
Todd Bowles
Said here many times has been the following about the sorry Bucs defense, “Joe doesn’t know how you fix a defense in December.”
And here is some intel explaining why this Bucs defense is nearly unfixable without the aid of a trade.
For Joe, one of the dumbest stats ever been hatched was “win probability.” Who gives a flying F? A game isn’t over until the buzzer sounds.
Joe started seeing this nonsense a couple of years ago — peddled by BSPN, naturally. But Joe came across an item on NFL.com that uses win probability to demonstrate just how badly the Bucs’ defense is broken.
Next Gen Stats Insight for Falcons-Buccaneers (via NFL Pro): The Falcons’ win probability was as low as 4.8% with 13:29 left in the fourth quarter (trailing 28-14) in their 29-28 comeback win over the Buccaneers.
Joe doesn’t know what to add. But when the head coach is also the defensive coordinator of such an outfit, there’s no escape.
And it’s not like the Bucs defense has been dominant since Todd Bowles came to town, though it’s had excellent games and stretches. Only once since the start of the 2019 season has the Bucs’ passing defense not been ranked in the 20s.
Now you have a defense that cannot be trusted with holding a two-score lead with only a few minutes to play at home. And the run defense has fallen off.
Dark defensive times in Tampa Bay. Again.