It’s certainly no secret that the Kansas City Chiefs have been absurdly dominant in recent years. For starters, the last time they didn’t win the AFC West was the 2015 season. And since Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018, they’ve literally made the AFC Championship Game every single season since.
Every. Single. Season.
Of those seven AFC title game appearances, the Chiefs went on to win five of them. And in their five Super Bowl appearances, they’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy on three occasions. Yeah, it’s been quite annoying for Los Angeles Chargers fans everywhere.
Naturally, Kansas City came into this 2025 season as the overwhelming favorite to once again win the AFC West and one of the big favorites to once again represent the conference in the Super Bowl. But things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for Andy Reid & Co., as the Chiefs dropped to 6-7 this past Sunday with a 20-10 loss to the red-hot Houston Texans and are in serious danger of missing the postseason for the first time since 2014.
The first of those seven losses, of course, came at the hands of the Chargers back in Week 1 in Brazil. And if the Bolts can complete the season sweep of their longtime rivals for the first time since 2013 this Sunday at Arrowhead and get a little assistance, the Chiefs, who have already been eliminated from the division race, can actually be officially eliminated from playoff contention altogether.
Scenarios where the Chiefs can be eliminated from playoff contention
Now, we’re not going to get into every single scenario in which Kansas City can be eliminated, as there are literally 37 different ways this can go down, according to NFL Playoff Scenarios. No, seriously, that’s a thing.
But we’ll just run you through four, as they’re simply the least complicated, with the other four games playing into these scenarios being the matchups between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals, and the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks.
So, without further ado, let’s have a look.
Chiefs loss + Bills win/tie + Jaguars win/tie + Texans winChiefs loss + Bills win/tie + Jaguars win/tie + Colts winChiefs loss + Bills win/tie + Texans win + Colts win/tieChiefs loss + Bills win/tie + Texans win + Colts win/tie
The first scenario seems to be the most plausible, as anything involving the Colts doesn’t bring a lot of confidence, as they’d be big underdogs to the 10-3 Seahawks even if Daniel Jones hadn’t suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. But perhaps the Bolts can get some help from none other than Philip Rivers if the 44-year-old ends up taking the snaps against Seattle.
But again, that first one is the most likely, as the Jaguars and Texans should have no problem dispatching the Jets and Cardinals, respectively. The Bills will have to beat the AFC East-leading Patriots, who’ve won 10 in a row, but Buffalo can win any game Josh Allen plays.
Now, we just sit back and wait to see if the unthinkable plays out.