Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 15’s game between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills.

Foxborough in December turns every breath into steam and every division snap into something heavier than normal. Buffalo walks back into this building chasing its old crown while a new Patriots regime guards the door. New England has stacked wins, built belief, and now faces the neighbor that has owned this division lately. The Bills arrive off a snow-soaked comeback, still riding the adrenaline from surviving another chaotic finish. The Patriots arrive off rest and a simmering sense that this is where the balance finally tilts. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 15’s game between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The numbers say Buffalo owns the broader offensive engine while New England throws the sharper individual punches. The Bills sit at 0.128 EPA per play, with 0.184 through the air and 0.071 on the ground. New England sits at 0.093 EPA per play overall but a nasty 0.260 passing EPA, masking a -0.098 rushing mark. Reigning-MVP Josh Allen brings 3,083 yards and a 22-to-10 passing line with 8.2 yards per attempt plus 12 rushing scores. MVP-favorite and New England folk hero Drake Maye counters with 3,412 yards, 23 touchdowns, six interceptions and 8.8 yards per attempt. He sits at 0.221 EPA per play with a 50.3% success rate, matching Allen’s impact. Defensively the Patriots hold the cleaner sheet, allowing -0.048 EPA per play versus Buffalo’s essentially neutral -0.001. New England is negative against both pass and run, while Buffalo leaks 5.1 yards per carry and 19 rushing touchdowns.

Maye’s profile under pressure is almost unfair for a second-year passer. He completes 56.5% under heat and still averages 8.6 yards per attempt, barely flinching when blitzed. Allen’s 51.0% under pressure and 7.2 yards per attempt show more slippage when the pocket caves, even with hero runs. New England’s rush is surging, with Christian Barmore at an 11.5% pressure rate and Harold Landry holding 7.5 sacks. Buffalo counters with (a now-healthy) Joey Bosa and Gregory Rousseau combining for 72 pressures and eight sacks, driving a higher-end rush. Downfield, Stefon Diggs quietly runs this hydra passing game, posting 2.18 yards per route with 705 yards on 64 grabs.

Buffalo spreads it, but Dalton Kincaid’s 2.88 yards per route and Khalil Shakir’s 8.2 yards after catch tilt coverage inside. Season long, Buffalo converts 61.2% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, while New England sits at 51.1%. Defensively, Bills allow touchdowns on 57.9% of red-zone snaps, with New England up at 67.9% despite stronger EPA. Both offenses finish drives with similar red-zone numbers recently, yet the turnover sheets are diverging fast. Allen has seven giveaways in roughly the last month, while New England has coughed it up once in that stretch. That combination of volatility versus ball security feels more sustainable for the home side than the visitor.

Bills vs. Patriots pick, best bet

The board hangs Bills -1.5 at around -108 with Patriots +1.5 at -112 and a 49.5 total. Analytics basically call this a coin flip, shading Buffalo’s win chance just above 50%. My read leans the other direction, nudging New England into slight home-favorite territory once you bake in rest and defensive profile. Given the EPA splits, run defense edge and turnover trends, this feels closer to Patriots -1 than Bills -1.5. I want the points and probably some sprinkling on New England’s moneyline rather than laying road chalk.

Script wise, I expect New England to accept that they probably will not dominate Buffalo’s rushing efficiency numbers. Instead they should lean Henderson and a curated ground game just enough to keep play-action threatening. From there Maye can work Diggs, Hunter Henry and the backs off condensed formations against linebackers forced into conflict. Buffalo will answer by trying to hammer James Cook into light boxes, then unleashing Kincaid and Shakir on crossers. New England’s front has real teeth against the run, so those early-down plans may end up behind schedule. If the Patriots’ pressure rates hold and Allen sees another mid-40s pressure game, the turnover edge should lean home. I see New England surviving a few Allen haymakers, winning the down-to-down fight and closing another statement drive late.

Officially I’m on Patriots moneyline, projecting New England 27, Buffalo 23.

Best bet: Patriots (+100) vs. Bills

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For a prop lean, I prefer TreVeyon Henderson’s volume over a fragile side or a volatile total. His rushing attempts line is 10.5 on DraftKings, and the matchup completely backs that angle. He averages 4.8 yards per carry, outgrades Rhamondre Stevenson in every rushing efficiency metric and faces Buffalo’s 5.1-yards-per-carry front. I’d play that Henderson over at 10.5 attempts to about -115 before looking elsewhere on the prop sheet.

Best prop lean: TreVeyon Henderson o10.5 rushing attempts (-110)

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