The Denver Broncos have won 10 straight games and are currently the No. 1 seed in the American Football Conference playoff picture with four games remaining.
Denver is tied with the New England Patriots, who have also won 10 consecutive games, but hold the tiebreaker. Each game is important for seeding and securing the No. 1 seed equals a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs until the Super Bowl.
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While Denver’s offense has gone through several identity crises, their new identity seems to be a pass-heavy offense. One key to securing that top seed is keeping quarterback Bo Nix in a groove, according to ESPN’s Jeff Legwold.
“Since a lackluster 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10, after which Payton called the game plan “awful,” the coach and Nix have found a better rhythm,” Legwold wrote Saturday. “They’ve found a groove by utilizing “songs they know by heart,” Payton’s term for plays he knows Nix can execute well. In the past three games, Nix has completed 70% of his passes, is 11th in QBR and fifth in completion percentage above expectation. In the first 10 weeks, Nix completed 60.9% of his passes, was 18th in QBR and 28th in CPOE.”
The Broncos have leaned on their star-studded defense a lot this season, and why not? This unit is on pace to set the all-time sack record in a single season. However, the offense is still inconsistent at times and that could affect how the defense fares down the stretch.
Maintaining the pressure they have gotten on opposing quarterbacks is another key to locking up the first-round bye.
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“There are four first-round QBs left on the Broncos’ schedule — Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert,” wrote Legwold. “Defensive tackle Zach Allen and edge rusher Nik Bonitto are currently first and fifth in the league in QB hits, respectively, as the Broncos’ defense leads the league in sacks with 55. Denver has sacked opposing quarterbacks on 10.4% of their dropbacks, also tops in the NFL. The Broncos also lead the NFL in third-down defense (30.9%) and red zone defense (40%).”
This unit has been impressive to say the least, but this unit also leads the league in defensive penalties. Penalties have been the one glaring weakness for the Broncos and cleaning those up on top of keeping Nix in a groove and continued pressure should be enough to accomplish their goals.
“The most glaring items that could derail the Broncos are special teams play and a propensity for penalties,” Legwold noted. “Denver has seen some progress in both areas, especially on special teams. Marvin Mims Jr. returned a punt for a touchdown this past Sunday, and Wil Lutz has hit several game-winning field goals. But the Broncos are still the third-most penalized team in the league — after spending much of the season at No. 1 or No. 2 — and have the most-penalized defense in the NFL.”
Denver will host the Green Bay Packers in a tough Week 15 matchup.