Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 15’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Tennessee Titans.

Levi’s Stadium in December has a way of stripping games down to intention. San Francisco is chasing posture, not permission, trying to look like itself again before the calendar tightens. Tennessee arrives carrying the strange energy of a bad record with nothing left to hide. One team wants control and clarity. The other wants to drag the afternoon somewhere uncomfortable. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 15’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Tennessee Titans.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

San Francisco’s edge starts at quarterback efficiency and it isn’t subtle. Their quarterbacks—Brock Purdy now—combine for 3,298 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while Tennessee’s passing game has stalled at 2,468 yards, nine touchdowns, and seven interceptions on 440 attempts. That gap shows up in EPA, where San Francisco’s quarterbacks sit firmly positive while Tennessee’s sits at -107.9 total EPA with a 37.6% success rate. Tennessee has allowed 49 sacks, which is a structural problem against a defense that can generate pressure without selling out. Even when San Francisco’s passing volume stays modest, the efficiency keeps drives alive and compresses the game in their favor.

The skill-position contrast only sharpens the divide. San Francisco’s offense still flows through Christian McCaffrey, who has 237 carries, 849 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, plus 85 catches for 806 yards and five receiving touchdowns. That dual role matters against a Tennessee defense that struggles to match backs in space. Tennessee’s answer is Tony Pollard, who has been productive with 743 rushing yards, 4.2 per carry, and 19 explosive runs, but his efficiency comes with negative EPA and limited scoring punch. When Tennessee has scored lately, it has required perfect sequencing. San Francisco can miss a beat and still keep moving.

Cam Ward has 440 attempts for 2,468 yards with nine touchdowns, seven interceptions, and 49 sacks, so Tennessee’s pass game is living snap-to-snap. Tony Pollard has 175 carries for 743 yards at 4.2 per carry with four rushing touchdowns, plus 19 explosive runs to keep them from drowning. Pollard’s weekly value still comes with volatility, sitting at -81.45 total EPA and a 37.99% success rate, so the splash runs are propping up the baseline. Tyjae Spears is even shakier play-to-play at -17.72 total EPA with a 35.82% success rate, even with 238 yards after catch.

Up front, this is where Tennessee can at least push back. Jeffery Simmons has 46 pressures and eight sacks, and the Titans’ interior rush is their one reliable way to force chaos. The problem is what happens after the first disruption. Tennessee’s recent EPA profile has been negative in four straight games, including a -28.7 EPA collapse two weeks ago, and their red-zone touchdown rate has hovered around 28% across the last month. San Francisco hasn’t been elite in the red zone either, but they compensate by converting 52.2% of third downs recently, compared to Tennessee’s 31.8%. That difference quietly turns field goals into extended possessions.

Titans vs. 49ers pick, best bet

The counterargument is the number itself. +12.5 is heavy, and San Francisco has shown some red-zone sloppiness that keeps backdoors open. Tennessee just beat Cleveland by leaning into the run and surviving chaos, and Pollard can generate explosives at a 10.9% rate. If San Francisco stalls early or plays conservatively with a lead, Tennessee can hang around longer than expected. That path exists, especially if the 49ers settle for threes.

I still land on 49ers -12.5 because the efficiency gaps line up too cleanly. Tennessee’s passing game has been underwater almost every week, and San Francisco has posted positive EPA in four straight games with a 61.9% success rate over that stretch. Tennessee’s offense needs rushing efficiency and short fields to survive. San Francisco rarely gives those away, forcing opponents to drive the full length. Over four quarters, that usually breaks a team like this.

The script points the same direction. San Francisco should lean on layered runs and short throws early, forcing Tennessee to declare coverage and soften the middle. Once the Titans are chasing, the protection cracks resurface, and the negative EPA shows up again. Tennessee can fight, but they do not finish drives well enough to threaten this margin consistently. I’m laying it and trusting the efficiency to separate late.

49ers -12.5 (-110). Projected score: San Francisco 30, Tennessee 14.

Best bet: 49ers -12.5 (-110) vs. Titans

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For a prop lean, I’m on McCaffrey’s receiving yardage. Even with the back concern floating, San Francisco’s passing structure still leans on him as the safest chain-mover. He has 107 targets, 85 catches, and 806 receiving yards, which makes him the primary answer when Tennessee’s interior pressure forces the ball out quickly. The Titans have struggled matching backs in space all season, and their blitz looks tend to leave hook zones stressed, exactly where McCaffrey does his best work. San Francisco doesn’t need to force vertical shots in this matchup. They can stay efficient, stay on schedule, and let McCaffrey stack easy receptions until the number clears.

Best prop lean: Christian McCaffrey o44.5 total receiving yards (-115)

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