The Jacksonville Jaguars reclaimed the AFC South lead from the Indianapolis Colts following their blowout win over their division rivals. The Jaguars are now in a prime position to win both the division and make the playoffs, but they can’t let loose and allow the Colts to make a comeback.
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What Are The Jaguars’ Playoff Chances in Week 15?
The Jacksonville Jaguars entered Week 14 tied with the Indianapolis Colts at 8–4, setting up a pivotal showdown with control of the AFC South on the line. Jacksonville responded with its most complete performance of the season, dominating from start to finish and energizing a home crowd that’s watched the team catch fire over the past month.
Riding a four-game win streak, the Jaguars look like one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career, turning into the engine of Jacksonville’s late-season surge after an inconsistent start to the season.
Following Sunday’s win, the Jaguars now hold a 95.3% chance of reaching the playoffs, a 58.5% chance of winning the division, and a 6.3% chance of landing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, per PFSN’s Playoff Predictor.
Jacksonville now returns home to face the struggling New York Jets, a favorable matchup given the team’s current form. Here’s how the Jaguars’ chances shift depending on Week 15 outcomes:
If Houston wins ( vs. Cardinals) AND Indianapolis wins (vs. Seahawks) AND Jacksonville wins:
Playoff chances: 96.4%
Division chances: 53.8%
If Houston wins AND Indianapolis wins AND Jacksonville loses:
Playoff chances: 85.5%
Division chances: 40.9%
If Houston wins AND Indianapolis loses AND Jacksonville loses:
Playoff chances: 92.7%
Division chances: 47.0%
If Houston wins AND Indianapolis loses, AND Jacksonville wins:
Playoff chances: 97.4%
Division chances: 56.7%
If Houston loses AND Indianapolis loses AND Jacksonville loses:
Playoff chances: 94.4%
Division chances: 63.8%
If Houston loses AND Indianapolis loses AND Jacksonville wins:
Playoff chances: 98.8%
Division chances: 79.9%
If Houston loses AND Indianapolis wins AND Jacksonville loses:
Playoff chances: 88.8%
Division chances: 54.5%
If Houston loses AND Indianapolis wins AND Jacksonville wins:
Playoff chances: 97.8%
Division chances: 74.7%
After the Jets, the Jaguars face a challenging road stretch: a trip to Denver to play the red-hot Broncos, followed by a divisional showdown against the Colts. They’ll close the regular season at home against the Titans. To secure the AFC South, Jacksonville will need to fend off both Indianapolis and the surging Houston Texans over the final month.
The Colts’ situation is complicated by Daniel Jones’ injury, which prompted the surprising signing of 44-year-old Philip Rivers. At the same time, the Texans remain a legitimate threat with a similarly manageable schedule and a five-game winning streak.
Even so, with Lawrence in peak form and the Jaguars averaging over 30 points per game across their last six outings, Jacksonville’s postseason outlook remains strong. The addition of Jakobi Meyers has elevated the passing attack, and as long as the offense continues to fire at this level, the Jaguars will remain in full control of their playoff destiny.