As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for the Steelers to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 15 Monday night game against the Miami Dolphins.

My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.

The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Dylan Cook Holds Up At Left Tackle

It’s far from ideal for an NFL offense to be on its fourth-string left tackle. Broderick Jones to Andrus Peat to Calvin Anderson, Dylan Cook is next man up. He made his NFL debut last weekend and is set to make his first start tonight. Cook isn’t a rookie and has plenty of preseason experience, but this is a whole new world. Primetime game and a victory that would be huge for Pittsburgh’s playoff chances.

Cook responded well last week but it was just on 13 plays. He’s gotta do it wire to wire tonight against a talented and varied set of Dolphins pass rushers. He’ll receive some help but there will be times where he’s just gotta win his 1v1 rep.

2. Tua’s Time To Throw Suffers

Among full-time starters, no quarterback has a faster snap-to-throw time than Tua Tagovailoa. It’s even quicker than Aaron Rodgers. Getting him to hold onto the football an extra beat will take him out of rhythm and his element. That’s always easier said than done and partially situational. Playing stout run defense and forcing third-and-long is obvious.

But muddying coverages and playing more physical at the line are equally important.

When Tagovailoa’s snap-to-throw time is under 2.4 seconds, Miami is 4-2. When it’s above 2.4 seconds, Miami is 2-5. Stats speak for themselves and show what the difference a small window of time, even less than one-tenth of a second, can mean.

3. History Works In Their Favor

As our Jeremy Pike will write about early Monday morning, there are trends working in Pittsburgh’s favor. The Steelers haven’t lost a home Monday night game since 1991. They’re aces in their Color Rush jerseys. Miami is ugly in cold weather. A recipe that says Pittsburgh will win.

Of course, history is just that. And Pittsburgh’s had history broken before, including earlier this year against the Green Bay Packers. But there is lots of the past predicting what’ll happen in the future – a Steelers win. Which would make a loss hurt all the more.

The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Defense Can’t Stop Dolphins’ Perimeter Running Game

Across the board, Miami’s running game is a handful. It blends college spread schemes with old-school power and it’s a lot of fun to watch. Less fun to play against. But a central theme of the Dolphins’ offense is a perimeter running game with speedster back De’Von Achane. If Miami can get the ball on the edge, it’ll be a long day for the Steelers’ defense.

The EDGE players must keep and force the ball inside. Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, and Jack Sawyer. It’s where T.J. Watt could truly be missed.

2. Dolphins Copy Bears’ Plan

In some sense, Miami has a similar approach to the Chicago Bears. An offense that offers a heavy dose of the running game and plenty of eye candy. Shifts, motions, good constraint plays to keep defenses guessing – and often wrong. Defensively, the coverages are varied and there’s a desire to be aggressive on the football.

Similar styles could produce similar outcomes. Pittsburgh has home-field advantage, but a slow start will bring out the boobirds, making Acrisure Stadium feel more like a hostile environment. Miami could pour it on from there and Mike McDaniel, for all his warts, knows how to call and run an offense. That’s always a problem for Pittsburgh.

3. Vertical Pass Game Can’t Carry Over

Pittsburgh finally got the big-play passing game going against Baltimore. As many completions of 20-plus air yards (four) versus the Ravens as the offense had in the previous six games combined. That can’t be a one-off. Miami is going to be focused on taking it away and giving DK Metcalf more attention than Baltimore did last week but it can’t come and go from Pittsburgh’s playbook.

The Steelers don’t need four but at least two in every game the rest of the regular season. These chunk plays lessen the need for crisp and perfect 12-play drives that are tough to rely on. Especially against a hot opponent.

Prediction

Dolphins: 26
Steelers: 24

Steelers lose a heartbreaker on a last-second field goal.

Season Record Prediction

4-9