It’s August 2025. You are gathering with friends for your annual fantasy football draft. As the final round drags on, the guy who drafted seven players from his favorite team leans over and whispers into your ear.

“Come December, Philip Rivers will have a better shot at the playoffs than Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.”

Time to call an Uber, right? No one uttering those words could possibly be fit to operate a motor vehicle. But here we are, 10 days from Christmas, and it’s true.

Rivers, the jowly 44-year-old grandfather five years removed from his last game, led a go-ahead drive in the final minutes at Seattle as his Indianapolis Colts nearly pulled an upset for the aged, signaling Indy still has a shot, slim as it might be.

Mahomes, riding seven consecutive appearances in the AFC title game, suffered a torn ACL in a defeat that eliminated the 6-8 Chiefs from the playoffs with three games to play.

Life comes at you fast in the NFL, doesn’t it? Ask the Green Bay Packers, who lost No. 1 receiver Christian Watson and all-world pass rusher Micah Parsons to injuries Sunday, weeks after losing Tucker Kraft, perhaps the most dynamic tight end in the league.

The Pick Six column sorts through the implications as we head into the wildest playoff race in memory. We start with the Chiefs, whose dynasty is finished. Or is it?

The full menu:

• About that Chiefs dynasty
• Rivers’ incredible return
• How special are 10-4 49ers?
• Eleven straight for Broncos*
• From bad to worse for Burrow
• Two-minute drill: Trevor Lawrence!

1. The Chiefs lost more than a game Sunday. They also lost their future Hall of Fame quarterback. Did they gain a rare opportunity?

Brace yourself for incessant debate over whether the Chiefs’ dynasty is dead.

Sure, Tom Brady suffered a torn ACL at about the same point in his career (regular-season start No. 111, compared to No. 126 for Mahomes; both in their ninth season), and he dominated into his 40s. But these are very different players. What if Mahomes, who turned 30 in September and led Kansas City in rushing through Week 6, can no longer move as well? What if Kansas City never adequately replaces aging stars Travis Kelce and Chris Jones?

What if 67-year-old coach Andy Reid, suddenly facing a very different immediate outlook for the team he has coached since 2013, doesn’t stick around as long as he otherwise might have?

Lots can change, and fast.

“I do think some of the magic from Mahomes is gone, and that is something that really helped them win a lot of games — the fear of Mahomes getting the ball late,” an exec from another team said Saturday, before Mahomes’ injury. “They are going to have to earn that back.”

Don’t know why this had to happen. And not going to lie it’s hurts. But all we can do now is Trust in God and attack every single day over and over again. Thank you Chiefs kingdom for always supporting me and for everyone who has reached out and sent prayers. I Will be back…

— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) December 14, 2025

The gloom will subside eventually. What happens if Kansas City, a 16-13 loser at home to the Chargers on Sunday, leverages a top-10 pick in the 2026 draft for one or more impact players? That’s an opportunity dynastic teams rarely get without trading up. The Chiefs, now 11th in the draft order, must maximize what projects most likely as a pick in the early teens.

When the Chiefs claimed their most recent Lombardi Trophy to cap the 2023 season, they met my criteria for a dynasty:

• Win three or more Super Bowls over five or more seasons
• Post the NFL’s best winning percentage from their first to last Super Bowl-winning seasons
• Reach the conference championship game more than half the time during the dynasty

Applying that criteria to Super Bowl-era teams left the Chiefs in elite company with the 1974-79 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1981-94 San Francisco 49ers and 2001-18 New England Patriots. Those teams consistently drafted late in the round, making it tougher for them to land elite players through the draft.

Below, we see that these teams’ three highest draft choices during their dynasties averaged 23rd for the Steelers and 26th for the Chiefs, with Pittsburgh picking in its assigned draft slots and Kansas City moving up only slightly for two of its top three choices. The Chiefs need to upgrade their roster aggressively. This lost season gives them a better chance through a higher pick.

Steelers dynasty: 1974-79
Drafts: 1975-80

• 21st: LB Robin Cole (1977): 127 starts with Steelers
• 22nd: DB Ron Johnson (1978): 62 starts
• 26th: DB Dave Brown (1975): 0 starts

Notes: The Steelers selected all three in their own draft slots. The NFL expanded from 26 to 28 teams in 1976. Brown started 203 games for Seattle and Green Bay.

49ers dynasty: 1981-94
Drafts: 1982-95

• 7th: DL Bryant Young (1994): 208 starts
• 10th: WR J.J. Stokes (1995): 66 starts
• 16th: WR Jerry Rice (1985): 224 starts

Note: The 49ers traded up a combined 40 spots to select these players.

Patriots dynasty (2001-18)
Drafts: 2002-19

• 10th: LB Jerod Mayo (2008): 93 starts
• 13th: DL Ty Warren (2003): 92 starts
• 17th: OT Nate Solder (2011): 95 starts

Note: The Patriots acquired all three picks via trade.

Chiefs dynasty (2019-TBD)
Drafts: 2020-TBD

• 21st: CB Trent McDuffie (2022): 56 starts
• 28th: WR Xavier Worthy (2024): 25 starts
• 30th: DE George Karlaftis (2022): 57 starts

Note: The Chiefs acquired the 29th pick in the 2022 draft as part of the Tyreek Hill trade, then moved up eight spots to select McDuffie. They moved up four to select Worthy.

The 49ers and Patriots were more aggressive in acquiring higher picks. That is how their top three picks averaged 12th.

The Patriots traded Drew Bledsoe for Buffalo’s 2003 first-round pick (used for Warren). They traded their 2007 first-rounder (No. 28) to the 49ers for a 2008 first (No. 7, before New England traded back three spots) and a fourth-rounder used to acquire Randy Moss. They traded Richard Seymour for the Raiders’ 2011 first-rounder (used for Solder).

Those moves reflected prime Bill Belichick maneuvering.

The 49ers moved up 12 spots in the first round of the 1985 draft to select future Hall of Famer Jerry Rice at No. 16. They moved up eight spots to select another future Hall of Famer, Bryant Young, seventh in 1994. A year later, the 49ers moved up 20 spots to No. 10 for receiver J.J. Stokes, who started 66 games for them but was not a dynamic player.

The Chiefs started their dynasty by boldly trading up for Mahomes in 2017. The best pick they recouped from the Tyreek Hill trade (No. 29 in 2022) helped land McDuffie, a 2023 first-team All-Pro corner, but did not begin to replace the dynamism Hill once brought to the offense. Beyond McDuffie, the picks helped the Chiefs land Rashee Rice and others, including Darian Kinnard, Skyy Moore and Keondre Coburn — not as much as Kansas City surely hoped.

It’s going to take bolder maneuvering for the Chiefs to resume a dynasty that is now on pause, at the very least.

2. Philip Rivers did more than inspire Dad Bod Nation. He inspired the high school players he coaches and millions more — without loosening his arm at a Hooters halftime show.

Rivers’ return to the field after one week of practice ranks among the great stories in NFL quarterbacking.

St. Michael football team watch party erupted when Coach Rivers threw his first TD back in the league. pic.twitter.com/VHXZrvIv4a

— Noah Moss (@NoahMoss2026) December 14, 2025

One great story deserves another.

Rivers is the second quarterback in NFL history to return at age 44 after five years out of the league.

Steve DeBerg did it with the Atlanta Falcons in 1998, reaching the Super Bowl as a backup to Chris Chandler.

Former NFL center Robbie Tobeck, who played for the Falcons from 1994 to ’99 before a seven-season run with Seattle, was home in Florida for the 1998 offseason when his brother-in-law got him tickets to an Arena League game in Tampa.

“Hooters was sponsoring halftime, and they had this deal where you come out and run a route and you catch a ball from Steve DeBerg,” Tobeck recalled last week. “I was like, ‘Oh, that’s cool. Steve DeBerg, I remember him.'”

DeBerg was so far out of the league that he had coached quarterbacks for two seasons on Dan Reeves’ staff with the New York Giants. But with Reeves coaching the Falcons in 1998, there was a connection, same as Rivers had with Shane Steichen in Indy.

“I’m going in to the facility that next week to work out,” Tobeck said. “I pull in the facility, and they’re working this guy out on the field. A quarterback. I’m looking … I’m looking … that’s fricking Steve DeBerg! Just literally the weekend before, I’m watching him throw balls to Hooters contest winners at the Storm game.”

Rivers, a devout Catholic with 10 children, probably won’t be teaming up with Hooters. But he was (and still is) coaching high school ball at St. Michael Catholic in Alabama, where one of his sons is a highly rated QB recruit. Rivers threw a touchdown pass and led a go-ahead drive in the final minutes against a dominant Seattle defense, executing a conservative game plan that was nearly enough.

DeBerg, who had passed for more than 30,000 yards and started 139 games before his comeback, floundered in his lone start for the 1998 Falcons, a 28-3 defeat to Bill Parcells’ Jets in Week 8 as the oldest starting QB ever at 44 years and 279 days. (He remained first on that list until Brady passed him in 2022.) Unlike Rivers, who had no idea 10 days ago that he would be starting an NFL game, DeBerg went to training camp and played extensively in the preseason entering his age-44 season.

I doubted Rivers could even finish a game so soon after emerging from retirement. What he did Sunday transcended the Colts’ offensive production (215 yards, 3.7 per play).

Absolutely love this from Old Man Rivers..

Anybody can do nothing.. DON’T BE SCARED TO GO FOR IT pic.twitter.com/dRYJGg2uSl

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) December 15, 2025

In watching tape of Rivers from 2020, his most recent season before retirement, a coach from another team predicted doom against the Seahawks.

“They are looking for him to not Max Brosmer it, which is scrambling to get away when he can’t, and then throw the ball to the Seattle defenders,” this coach said. “We do not expect him to panic. He is going to be shocked how fast the rush is going to be on him.”

Why wouldn’t 240 career starts before Sunday condition Rivers for that?

“Because when he’s on his couch, and his wife brings him a popcorn bowl, she is not running up on him that fast,” the coach said. “Those subtle movements in the pocket he was known for, they will be slow, as if he has ankle weights on. It’s not like he was out in his garage with the Therabands on, working on the side shuffle to make sure he keeps his quickness.”

It was funny stuff, but when Rivers completed a back-shoulder fade to Alec Pierce for a 16-yard gain on the go-ahead drive, converting a third-and-7 with 1:01 remaining, the joke was on everyone else.

3. Make it 11 consecutive victories for the Denver Broncos, this time against an NFC contender*

If you’re interested in discounting yet another Broncos victory, there’s material at your disposal.

For example, the Green Bay Packers scored on their first five drives against a Denver defense that ranked seventh in EPA per play before Sunday but has fallen off, especially struggling on third-and-long. The Packers’ sixth drive was a disaster, with a Pat Surtain II interception and a game-ending injury to Watson on one play.

Without Watson, the Packers scored three points on their remaining five drives.

Late in the third quarter, Green Bay lost Parsons for the game. Denver scored a touchdown three plays later to take the lead for good.

Lucky Broncos!

At a certain point, the asterisks lose their impact. That point might have arrived Sunday when Bo Nix passed for 302 yards and four touchdowns to win on a day when the Broncos’ defense and special teams were a net loser (-4.2 EPA).

This wasn’t necessarily an aberration, either.

Denver keeps winning even though its defense has been well below average (-3.0 EPA or worse) in each of the past four games. Since 2000, the only other teams to win four in a row with the defensive deck stacked against them to that degree had Mahomes (2018 Chiefs), Drew Brees (2011 Saints), Peyton Manning (2006 Colts) and Carson Palmer (2003 Bengals) behind center. The only team to win five in a row under those circumstances had Brady (2011 Patriots).

Nix, despite appearing decisive and playing one of his best games Sunday, is not any of those players, not even close. And as the asterisk crew surely knows, Denver’s average point margin during its 11-game win streak (+7.0) ranks last among 35 teams in NFL history to win 11 or more games consecutively within a season, per Pro Football Reference.

But the Broncos have not won 11 in a row by accident. They’ve done it as a team, prevailing in games when their offense was terrible (13-11 over the Jets, 10-7 over the Raiders) and when their defense struggled (22-19 over the Chiefs, 27-26 over the Commanders and Sunday against the Packers).

“One thing about it: If you are a fan, there has to be eight teams that think they can win a Super Bowl,” a veteran coach said. “New England and Buffalo both think they can. Seattle and the Rams do. Detroit does, Denver, Jacksonville and Houston do. You get in it, and you get on a roll, who knows?”

Green Bay has been one of those teams, but maybe not now, after losing two more of its best players. The Packers’ sack rate on 101 pass plays without Parsons on the field this season is 4 percent, compared to 7.3 percent on 396 plays with him on the field. They draw the 10-4 Bears on Saturday.

4. The 49ers’ 10-4 record is their third-best in the past 12 seasons. Here’s what makes them special (and why it could fool them in the offseason).

The first field goal try Eddy Piñeiro missed after making his first 23 this season wound up producing the largest single-play EPA gain (+3.4) for the 49ers in Week 15.

That’s because officials flagged Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons for a personal foul, nullifying the miss and giving San Francisco a first down. The drive ended with Piñeiro connecting from 37 yards.

It’s been that kind of season for the 49ers on special teams.

They rank first by a wide margin among all teams since 2000 in year-over-year change in special teams EPA per game, per TruMedia.

Gaining more than a touchdown in value (7.1 points) per game on these plays is sensational for the 49ers, whose 37-24 victory over Tennessee on Sunday featured, appropriately, the NFL’s third-best special teams output in Week 15 (+5.9).

Special teams coordinator Brant Boyer, who spent 2016-24 with the Jets, should feel great about the historic turnaround. But as the 49ers evaluate themselves in the offseason, they should build into their thinking that regression is very likely.

On Sunday, the Titans missed a 50-yard field goal as the first half ended (+2.0 EPA for the 49ers). Tennessee also kicked off out of bounds (+1.1 EPA). Piñeiro, with the assist from Simmons, made all three of his field goal attempts. He has made all 25 tries this season, including six from beyond 50 yards, after incumbent Jake Moody missed 10 tries last season.

Are the 49ers going to make their first 25 tries next season, or in any future season? Probably not, but those gains are easy to take for granted once a season is finished.

Kyle Shanahan deserves strong consideration for NFL Coach of the Year regardless.

San Francisco has played 11 games without pass rusher Nick Bosa, eight without linebacker Fred Warner, eight without quarterback Brock Purdy, five without tight end George Kittle and a combined 11 more without their two most recent first-round picks, Ricky Pearsall and Mykel Williams. Bosa (five), Warner (four), Purdy (one) and Kittle (six) have combined for 16 Pro Bowl appearances. Those four are earning a combined $127 million in average annual salary.

The 49ers have also overcome the bizarre situation involving former No. 1 receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who has not played since suffering a knee injury in Week 7 last season, and is now estranged from the team (his contract, now in dispute, averages $30 million per year).

The special teams spike doesn’t explain everything.

San Francisco deserves credit for upgrading at backup quarterback with Mac Jones and at defensive coordinator with Robert Saleh. Running back Christian McCaffrey has stayed healthy all season after missing 13 games last season and most of the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

But special teams is a major reason why this 49ers team, unlike the 2020 and 2024 versions, has kept winning despite playing without so many injured key players. That’s reflected in the table below, which shows the 49ers’ per-game EPA changes from last season in all three phases.

5. On this day, at least, Joe Burrow would not trade places with Patrick Mahomes. Will he find some perspective there?

Alarm bells rang last week when Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow sounded like he was contemplating retirement or a change of address.

“If I want to keep doing this, I have to have fun doing it,” the Bengals’ franchise QB said. “I’ve been through a lot, and if it’s not fun, then what am I doing it for?”

If Burrow felt that down following a highly entertaining, 39-34 defeat at Buffalo, how would he feel after falling 24-0 at home against Baltimore on Sunday?

“There is not a team in the NFL that would have won today if I was the quarterback,” Burrow said, taking ownership for a poor performance.

The Bengals’ struggles over the past two seasons, coupled with other things Burrow has said, have driven comparisons to Carson Palmer’s falling out with the franchise in 2009. Palmer, frustrated with the organization, forced a trade.

As the chart below shows, Burrow is nearing the point in his career where Palmer wanted out.

Three big differences: Burrow signed a five-year, $275 million deal with the Bengals, so he’s fulfilled financially; Cincy has reached a Super Bowl with Burrow, who therefore knows a championship is possible; and Burrow, unlike Palmer, went to high school in Ohio.

“If Joe Burrow, your hometown guy, gives up on you, that is a different stake in the heart of your franchise,” an exec from another team said.

Comparing Burrow to Andrew Luck, who shockingly retired before the 2019 season at Burrow’s current age (29), feels relevant to the extent that Burrow’s frustrations stem from surgeries on his knee, wrist and toe, plus other less serious injuries. Burrow, like Luck, also has reason to question how his team has built its offensive line.

The similarities stop there.

“Burrow doesn’t strike me as Luck, where he is going to disappear and go bird watching or serve on a board if he does not play football,” the exec added. “That said, Burrow’s comments definitely caught my attention. That is an organization I trust the least to figure it out.”

Burrow, unlike Mahomes, is healthy. Happy? How could anyone be happy with a third consecutive lost season? Where Burrow takes his commentary from here, especially in the offseason, will be telling. He hasn’t held back in the past.

“(Owner) Mike Brown is not letting Joe Burrow walk out the door,” the exec said. “That is what makes Burrow’s comments so interesting. How ugly does this get? Because this is the one franchise that doesn’t care at all about it looking ugly, especially after getting their stadium deal.”

6. Two-minute drill: Trevor Lawrence’s new trajectory

It’s been a rough slog for Lawrence since the Jaguars used the first pick in the 2021 draft to select him. That is changing in the win column (10-4) and on the stat sheet for the fifth-year quarterback. It goes beyond his 330-yard passing day with five touchdown passes, one rushing score and no turnovers during a 48-20 victory over the Jets in Week 15.

Lawrence entered Sunday ranked 26th in EPA per pass play this season, just ahead of Spencer Rattler and Justin Fields, who have been benched. Fifty other quarterbacks, including Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, had strung together three consecutive starts in a season without a turnover since Lawrence entered the league. Lawrence had never done it until Sunday.

With nine touchdown passes and no turnovers over the past three weeks, Lawrence is riding the best three-game streak of his career, his first with triple-digit passer ratings. That’s notable in a division where Rivers is suddenly a spot starter and C.J. Stroud has missed three games with a concussion.

• Bowles bombs: Seven f-bombs and three s-words in 26 seconds gave coach Todd Bowles the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ most impressive statistical line from Thursday night’s in-blanking-excusable home defeat to the Atlanta Falcons.

Bowles’ monotone delivery diminished some of the entertainment value for those without a rooting interest. Coors Light, which helped immortalize Jim Mora and Dennis Green among postgame ranting royalty, might prefer greater animation. But the seething anger was clearly there.

“It’s inexcusable,” Bowles said. “We don’t make excuses. You gotta f—ing care enough where the s— hurts. You gotta f—ing care enough where the s— hurts. It’s gotta f—ing mean something to you. It’s more than a job. It’s your f—ing livelihood. How well do you know your job? How well can you do your job? You can’t sugarcoat that s—. It was in-f—ing-excusable and there are no f—ing answers for it. No excuse for it. That is what you tell them in the locker room. Look in the f—ing mirror.”

Of all the indignities Tampa Bay suffered in blowing a 14-point lead to lose, 29-28, the penalty situation had to rank near the top.

The Falcons were practically begging to be beaten while incurring 22 penalties (19 accepted). That is tied for third-most by a winning team in 6,926 total games this century, per TruMedia.

Only the 2016 Raiders (27 total penalties) and 2003 Panthers (23) won games with more penalties over that span. The losing team in those games? The Bucs, of course (yes, in both). The 2003 game featured 23 penalties against each team, but only 21 total points (Panthers 12, Bucs 9). What might Bowles have said about that game if he were coaching Tampa Bay then?

On Thursday night, the Bucs incurred seven penalties, which is the per-game average for teams since 2000. The Falcons’ minus-16 flag differential was the second-largest for a winning team since 2000 (the Bucs were plus-16 in that 2016 loss to the Raiders).

• Chargers rein it in and still win: The Chargers ranked No. 1 on the Cook Index through Week 12, passing 64.5 percent of the time on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time remaining and score differential exert more influence over play selection.

They rank 23rd since then at 45.6 percent, opening their victory at Kansas City with six consecutive runs (one was nullified by a Chiefs offside penalty), three of those with six offensive linemen on the field. The first pass targeted fullback/D-lineman Scott Matlock off play-action.

The shift dates to the first quarter of the Chargers’ Week 13 victory over the Raiders, when quarterback Justin Herbert, playing behind a line that is down to its fifth and sixth tackles, suffered a broken bone in his non-throwing hand.

There might not be a number to describe what is happening with Jim Harbaugh’s team, which has won six of its last seven in improving to 10-4.

“What is overlooked in this era is motivation every day, and the ability to instill confidence in young men,” a veteran coach said.

The coach compared some of today’s computer-oriented young coaches to card players who have played thousands of hands on digital devices in a short period of time, gaining lots of knowledge quickly.

“You can get 10 years of experience within eight or 10 months and become a pretty good player, but at the table, I would put my money on the dude that grinded it out for 20 years,” the coach added.

Harbaugh is that dude (for those interested in the numbers, the Chargers rank seventh in defensive EPA per play, and 23rd on the offensive side).

• Seahawks-Rams pack 1-2 punch: Earlier this season, I started ranking teams’ average point margins against each opponent, then averaging those rankings to create an opponent-adjusted power ranking. This week, I’ve weighted those results so that recent outcomes matter more than earlier ones. This update has knocked down teams like the Colts and Chiefs, which seems appropriate.

The Rams are first and the Seahawks second heading into their Thursday night matchup at Seattle. The Texans are third, followed by the Bills and Jaguars, who are tied for fourth. The Patriots are sixth, followed by the Eagles. The Colts, Packers and Broncos are tied for eighth, rounding out the top 10.

The Lions are 11th, followed by the Chiefs, Bears, Chargers and 49ers.

• Big week for game management: The timing for colleague Jourdan Rodrigue’s piece on the NFL’s game-management coaches proved apt after Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald handed a game ball to Brian Eayrs, who handles those duties for Seattle.

Macdonald credited Eayrs for the decision to call timeouts on defense beginning at 1:07, when the Colts were heading into a second-and-10 at the Seattle 49 while needing a field goal to take the lead. Indy was not yet in field-goal range, but Eayrs wanted to preserve time for a rebuttal drive under the assumption the Colts were likely to score.

• Panthers reality check: Carolina entered its Week 15 loss to New Orleans with a 7-6 record despite ranking 25th in EPA per play on each side of the ball. The Saints have not only swept the Panthers, but evidence is mounting that New Orleans rookie Tyler Shough owns the higher ceiling of the teams’ young quarterbacks, despite his low price (second-round pick).