A wild 2025 NFL season filled with unexpected twists and turns continued in Week 15.

Week 15 losses from the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions continued a stunning two-month downfall for teams that were among the early-season Super Bowl favorites. The Chiefs? Eliminated. The Lions? On the brink with three weeks to go in the regular season.

On the flipside, the NFC West commands attention down the stretch thanks to three teams still among the top 10 Super Bowl contenders — including a Week 16 showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. The AFC’s playoff picture also became a bit clearer after noteworthy wins from the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos.

There’s still plenty of time left in the regular season, but BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds are starting to take shape as more teams are eliminated from postseason contention.

Live Super Bowl oddsFormer favorites Kansas City and Detroit continue downfall

As recently as Week 8, the Chiefs (then +500) and Lions (then +650, now +3000) were the top two teams in the odds to win the Super Bowl. Only eight weeks later, the Chiefs are missing the postseason entirely, and the Lions are in serious danger of joining them.

After a home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers (+2200), Kansas City won’t be the AFC’s Super Bowl representative for only the second time since 2020. The Chiefs were the favorite from Week 8 through Week 11, but have now lost five of their last six games in a startling decline.

How Kansas City recovers from this disappointing season will be a major offseason storyline thanks to an aging roster and the season-ending knee injury to star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. For now, the Chiefs are out of the postseason for the first time since 2014 — opening up a path for a new team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Detroit was the top NFC team in the odds from Week 6 through Week 10. After Week 15’s loss to the now-top-favorite Rams, Detroit’s once-promising season is in limbo.

Still the only NFC team to never appear in the Super Bowl, the Lions need to overcome nearly insurmountable odds to continue their season. Entering into Week 15, the Lions had about a 40 percent shot at the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. That chance has gone down to 27 percent.

Colton Pouncy, Detroit Lions senior writer for The Athletic, breaks down Detroit’s increasingly slim chances of playing January football.

“[The Rams game] was always going to be a difficult game to win, and the loss now eliminates Detroit’s margin for error,” Pouncy said. “The Lions are 5-5 in their last 10 games — alternating wins and losses each week. They’re consistently inconsistent, and need to win out to give themselves a realistic shot at the playoffs. Even then, there’s work to do.

“If the Lions win their final three games vs. the Steelers, Vikings and Bears, they have a 95 percent chance to make the playoffs. But they’d still need help. They would need the Bears to lose at least one of their next two games (Packers, 49ers) before beating Chicago in Week 18, or they’d need the Packers to lose two of their final three games (Bears, Ravens, Vikings). That’s the simplest path forward. And it ain’t so simple.

“The nightmare scenario for the Lions features the Bears beating the Packers and 49ers, and the Packers losing to the Bears but beating the Ravens and Vikings. If that happens, the Lions could go 3-0 — including a win over the Bears in Week 18 — and it likely wouldn’t matter. They’d need the 49ers to lose out to make it in this scenario. San Francisco finishes with the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. One win would get the 49ers in over the Lions, since they’d own the tiebreaker over Detroit (conference wins). In other words, even an 11-6 season might not get it done.”

Detroit is favored by about a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

Rams, Seahawks stay atop odds ahead of Week 16 showdown

The Rams (+350) and Seahawks (+700) remain the top two teams in BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds with Week 15 victories — setting up a major NFC West showdown on Thursday night.

Holding off Detroit for another quality victory, the Rams moved up slightly from +400 odds the week before. Seattle kept pace by escaping with a win over the Philip Rivers-led Indianapolis Colts, which have plummeted all the way to +50000 to win the Super Bowl.

Thursday’s matchup delivers major implications for Super Bowl odds, the NFC playoff picture and the NFC West title. Los Angeles held off Seattle, 21-19, in the first matchup a month ago and looked like they might cruise to the NFC’s top seed. A stunning Rams loss in Carolina during Week 13 opened the door for Seattle (and others) in the playoff chase.

The key for Thursday is Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold. Over the last two seasons, Darnold is an impressive 25-7 as a starter — but 0-3 against the Rams. Los Angeles’ blitz-heavy scheme sacked Darnold nine times in the NFC Playoffs last season when the Rams eliminated the Vikings — Darnold’s team in 2024. A month ago, the Rams intercepted Darnold four times in Los Angeles’ win over Seattle. Even an average effort from Darnold against the Rams could be the difference, with Seattle’s defense playing so well over the last several weeks.

Lurking in the NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers (+2000) remain one game back of both Los Angeles and Seattle ahead of the 49ers’ Monday night clash in Indianapolis. San Francisco is also still set to host Seattle in Week 18.

Buffalo and Denver tops among AFC contenders

Notable wins from the Buffalo Bills (+800) and Denver Broncos (+850) constituted movement among AFC contenders.

Buffalo’s comeback victory on the road against the New England Patriots (+1300) showed how dangerous the Bills remain despite their inconsistent season. Even though Buffalo is currently the sixth seed in the AFC, quarterback Josh Allen’s ability to take over a game makes the Bills the most dangerous team left in the conference — particularly with Kansas City, and also potentially the Baltimore Ravens (+2200), missing the postseason.

New England’s loss to Buffalo also paved the way for Denver to take sole possession of the AFC’s top playoff seed after the Broncos held off the Green Bay Packers (+1400).

Denver faces two strong playoff contenders in the final three weeks, including the Jacksonville Jaguars (+1800) and the Chargers. But the Broncos’ Week 17 matchup in Kansas City looks far less daunting with the Chiefs now eliminated from the postseason and Mahomes sidelined.