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Merry Bowlmas. Time to see which two randomly assembled G5 teams are in your advent calendar next.

Happy Bowl-idays: Some bowls are more precious than others

Bowl season technically began on Saturday, but truly gets going tonight, with five straight days of bowls overlapping with playoffs at every NCAA level.

I said the words “bowl season,” which means I’m supposed to honk at you about how meaningless it’s become (and about kids these days), before later acting astounded when TV ratings reveal lots of people just notice football is on, then watch it. Pretend I did that.

Still, it can be hard to know exactly when to dip your toe into the postseason flood. So I made a spreadsheet, then took a screenshot of it for you. It’s mostly based on last week’s survey, when thousands of you rated each bowl’s watchability. The higher the grade, the greener the shade. Tap to zoom or save:

To be clear, I disagree with some of your grades. You’re underselling Old Dominion-USF, Arizona-SMU and Minnesota-New Mexico in particular. I also asked a few ball-knowing associates about which of your 10 lowest-rated games deserve further consideration:

David Ubben, The Athletic: FIU-UTSA, First Responder Bowl. “The Roadrunners are away from the home tree of the Alamodome, but they’re a fun team. And so is Willie Simmons’ FIU squad. Panthers QB Keyone Jenkins is must-see TV if he’s healthy.”
Lucy Rohden: Central Michigan-Northwestern, “GameAbove Sports” Bowl. “I’ve always believed that Northwestern is spiritually a MAC team, and I’m excited to learn if the game really is above sports.”
Rodger Sherman, the Sports! newsletter: UNLV-Ohio, Coffee Frisco Bowl. “Two squads that are near the top of G5 conferences, have fun offenses and won’t experience mass roster exodus due to coaching changes (although Ohio’s coach is mysteriously on a leave of absence). Plus they’re playing in the Cowboys practice facility, and coffee is in the category of ‘funny but not upsetting things to dump on a victorious coach.’”
Escalante, Sickos Committee commissioner: Delaware-Louisiana, 68 Ventures Bowl. “Two teams with a propensity for close games, plus QBs named Minicucci and Lunch.”

Also, some wise guidance in a survey response from Bill, one of your fellow readers:

“I make it a point to try and watch at least a possession each for every team, regardless of the bowl. If time and schedule allowed, I would watch every second of each game. I think bowl season is one of the best parts about the sport, and honestly, I’d rather watch Kennesaw State and Western Michigan battle it out on teal turf on a Friday morning than watch a rematch of Alabama and Oklahoma that night.”

That’s the right idea. A sprawling sampler platter. We have to pace ourselves, now that bizarre Playoff scheduling means the season won’t end for another month, despite Moses proclaiming long ago on Mount Sinai that college football should always end in Pasadena on New Year’s Day.

More bowl stuff:

The 25 best bowl venues, ranked. Around No. 15, the Sun Bowl, is when the majestic oddballs start showing up.
Betting on bowl games was a brave idea even before the portal era. The weeks-long reset beforehand seemingly randomizes each team’s quality. Betting on them now? Only for the fearless.
A while back, I co-wrote this century-long history of people complaining about “too many bowl games,” all the way back to when there was literally just one.
Quick Snaps

💔 “Were there people hanging on for dear life? Absolutely, myself included, but that’s the point.” The owner of the yoga studio formerly attended by Lane Kiffin, among the many Oxford voices Christopher Kamrani and Joe Rexrode talked to in the breakup aftermath.

Joe also put together his annual Hater’s Guide to the Playoff. I laughed, though he’s wrong about my adopted Sooners, adorable sweethearts who just want to win disgusting, five-point games.

〽️ “The kids quite frankly feel very betrayed, and we’re trying to work through that.” Michigan interim Biff Poggi on Sherrone Moore fallout.

“The most well-known employee at the university had an ongoing extramarital affair with a subordinate, and it was not a secret.” Can confirm rumors had been all over the place for a long time. So how’d the whole thing persist?

🌀 Since Matt Rhule signed an extension on Oct. 30, Nebraska went an ugly 1-3, then mostly skipped early signing day. The latest: Two-year starting QB Dylan Raiola is expected to transfer out. It might be for the best, though. Elsewhere in portal news …

Fellow former 2024 five-star QB DJ Lagway is leaving Florida after an injury-hampered second season. A family connection could point to Baylor. (The other five-star QB in that class, Heisman finalist Julian Sayin, is also a transfer, having left Alabama for Ohio State after Nick Saban’s retirement.)
One of the country’s most productive quarterbacks, Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby, will either transfer or go pro. You know, he arrived at Cincy by way of (pre-Cignetti) Indiana, which will soon need to replace Fernando Mendoza …
Surprising hopefully nobody, Arch Manning plans to return to Texas next season. One decent Citrus Bowl performance against Michigan away from a second straight offseason of Heisman hype.
Six-school quarterback TJ Finley, most recently at Georgia State, is in the market for a seventh. College is all about broadening your horizons.

📰 News:

Diego Pavia has apologized for his outbursts after not winning the Heisman. Personally, I like when college football has characters. I sure ain’t here for moral lessons.
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer says he has “no interest” in any other job. Undaunted, faraway onlookers will resume trying to guess how much he does or doesn’t like Tuscaloosa.
Ten years ago, Southern University walk-on Devon Gales suffered a paralyzing injury against Georgia. Last week, he graduated … from Georgia, in fact.
Report Cards: Who beat (or missed) expectations the most?

This season was unusually high on big-name flops. That list starts with preseason No. 2 Penn State (6-6) and No. 4 Clemson (7-5), now Pinstripe Bowl opponents, plus No. 9 LSU (7-5), No. 13 South Carolina (4-8), No. 15 Florida (4-8) and No. 17 Kansas State (6-6). Oh, and No. 1 Texas (9-3).

Theories abound on why. NIL! Portal! “Grand Theft Auto 6” delays! As usual, my theory is: S— happens, dawg.

In 2024, the preseason AP Top 25 had a normal number of misses, basically just No. 10 Florida State and No. 17 Oklahoma State, so there’s not a capital-T trend (yet). A couple decades ago, nobody watched the far more chaotic 2007 season and then proclaimed, “This is how the world works now.” Nobody looks at 2025’s parity-heavy NFL season and blames the college transfer portal (or kids these days).

Regardless, let’s use some numbers to find which 2025 FBS teams veered the farthest from realistic preseason expectations. To find those, I went back to August and combined the forecasted regular-season win totals from TeamRankings and ESPN’s FPI. For example, both metrics predicted Duke would win seven games. Sure enough, Duke went 7-5. Predictable. Clinical. Logical. Nevermind the ACC championship that followed.

First, here are the teams that won at least three more regular-season games than expected. I’ve bolded those that also won conference title games and/or are in the current AP Top 25:

1. New Mexico, +5.05, going 9-3 in Year 1 under former Idaho Vandals rebuilder Jason Eck
2. Vanderbilt, +4.9
3. Kennesaw State/North Texas, +4.55
5. San Diego State, +4.2
6. Indiana, +3.95, a year after +5.25
7. Virginia, +3.6
8. JMU, +3.5
9. Oklahoma, +3.3
10. Wake Forest, +3.15
11. Houston/Texas A&M, +3.1
13. Texas Tech, +3.05

Two Big 12 teams there, plus the next three were BYU, Arizona and Utah. Also, two more Big 12 teams appear below on the bad version of the list, with Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas barely escaping that one. I’ve seen enough: For the second year in a row, the Big 12 was the most unpredictable FBS conference.

And here are the teams that fell at least three wins shy of their preseason computer expectations. This time, I’ve bolded those that were preseason conference favorites and/or ranked in the preseason AP:

1. UMass, -4.55, and yep, the 0-12 Minutemen were supposed to be somewhat improved in their MAC debut 😬
2. Liberty/Oregon State, -4.5
4. Oklahoma State, -4.25
5. Penn State/Virginia Tech, -4.2. What a pair!
7. Colorado State, -4.15
8. San Jose State, -4.05
9. Arkansas, -3.7
10. Boston College/South Carolina, -3.6
12. Georgia State/Sam Houston, -3.5
14. Colorado/NIU, -3.25
16. Florida, -3.1
17. UTEP, -3
Bonus: North Carolina, -2.85

Obviously, the biggest catastrophe was Penn State, from the upset losses that doomed James Franklin through the sweatiest non-Tennessee coaching search in many years to the two-guy signing class. A statement that is still true for another two weeks: Within this calendar year, this team was a play away from the title game. Regardless, onward to Pinstripe Bowl glory.

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