On Tuesdays I aim to give a mini-handicapping lesson or takeaway in an introduction before just giving picks. I want to re-emphasize last week’s opening, because these tropes are about to become so pertinent throughout NFL betting the remainder of the season.
Motivation and needing to win for a specific playoff outcome are not actionable reasons to place a bet. Even on bad teams that may be out of playoff contention, this is the NFL. Players are trying to win to keep their roster spots for next season, coaches are trying to end the season with momentum and a happy locker room, and general managers want their draft picks to show promise. There are so many examples of teams that need to win and organizations that should probably want to lose, but it doesn’t happen that way. Here are a few:
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On the heels of three straight Super Bowl appearances, the Chiefs needed to beat the Chargers in Week 15 to remain mathematically in playoff contention. They lost 16-13.
Last season, after six straight losses, the New England Patriots had a path to the No. 1 overall pick by losing in Week 18 to the Buffalo Bills. The Pats won and moved to the No. 4 pick.
After starting 0-13 in 2020, the New York Jets were aligned to finish last and get Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft. Instead, they won two of their final three games and took Zach Wilson at No. 2 overall.
Already this week we have the Cincinnati Bengals — a few days after being eliminated from the playoffs — taking early sharp action against the Miami Dolphins.
These factors are easy to form narrative angles that do not really exist in practice. The following spots I think are actionable and worth placing a bet now. The goal in betting early in the week is to get ahead of line movement led by sharp action and position us to have good closing numbers in an efficient market.
Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens warms up before facing the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Dec. 14, 2025, in Cincinnati. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
(Jason Miller via Getty Images)New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 48)
This is a strong matchup for the Baltimore Ravens, who are still led by a top-end rushing attack. The combination of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson is the eighth-best rushing attack based on DVOA; the Patriots are 18th in rushing defense in the last 5 weeks, allowing an average of over 130 rushing yards per game.
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The Ravens defense is also strengthening at the right time. The Ravens have won six of their last eight games, mainly on the backs of their defense allowing just 12.9 points per game. NFL market ratings, a formula based on closing lines to help form power rankings to price various matchups, show the Ravens 1.5 points better than the Patriots, and with a home-field advantage factor of 1.5 points, the line becomes Ravens -3.
We have seen this bet from Ravens -2.5 to Ravens -3 (-105) early in the week, and there is still probably some room to go on the vig on a current soft -3. Late last week two of the sharpest game-day moves, a signal of where the biggest and most respected bettors are coming in, were on the Ravens and Bills. The Ravens handled business easily against the Bengals, while the Bills scored 5 straight touchdowns to lead a come-from-behind win. The sharp angles were right last week specific to matchups featuring these teams, and it’s no surprise to see it happening again here.
In NFL betting, the -3 is equivalent to a -160 ML, and it is usually even more than that. Right now we can get -150 on the moneyline at BetMGM. I think the spread will continue to move 5 cents to the Ravens -3 (-110) or greater, but the moneyline can move 10+ cents. The value is trivial in difference, but this is a spot I am happy to play an early-week cheap moneyline in what should be at least a dime more expensive.
Bet: Ravens ML -150
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 49.5)
This bet is an early-week target because of the injury report for the Dallas Cowboys, most notably the status of defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. Since arriving in Dallas from the New York Jets at the trade deadline, Williams has performed the best he has all season, contributing to wins over the the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs in back-to-back weeks. It looked like the Cowboys were really rounding into form, with a dominant offense finally getting some help.
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But last week Williams suffered a concussion, and the defense collapsed. Owner Jerry Jones said preseason when trading Micah Parsons that the defense needed to focus on stopping the run, and Williams provided such a boost to that element it was foundational for the rest of the defense. Williams will likely miss this game as he goes through concussion protocol — something that has been harder to progress through in just one week in recent seasons.
The Chargers are the last team you want to see when losing the key to stopping the run. The Chargers recently returned first-round draft pick Omarion Hampton to join Kimani Vidal in what is now a strong one-two punch out of the backfield. Combine this with the fact that Justin Herbert has been very mobile this year, and plugging up the rushing lanes is critical to stopping the Chargers.
When the Chargers are in a positive game script led by their rushing attack, they become nearly impossible to stop. The Chargers have one of the highest pass rates over expectation in the NFL; they have been inside the top 10 in this category every single week this year. Right when you think they are going to run, they disguise and pass to a multitude of weapons, including Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, and breakout rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden II.
Our market ratings put this game at the Cowboys -1.4, a move from Cowboys -1.9 in this matchup last week before a Chargers win over Kansas City and a Cowboys loss in prime time to the Minnesota Vikings. This half point change still does not account for the loss of Williams. Also, the one place market ratings fail is projecting specific matchups. This number is short on the Chargers, does not fully price in a key Cowboys injury, and should be further swung by the specific matchup. This creates a clear Chargers buy spot, and the +1.5 against the spread represents the best market value for doing so.
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Bet: Chargers +1.5 (-105)
Los Angeles Rams (-1, 44.5) at Seattle Seahawks
This handicap is simple and quick: weather reports in the NFL should be studied early in the week and monitored throughout. Right now it looks like rain on Thursday Night Football in Seattle is an 87% chance, with wind speeds consistently at 13mph and gusts north of 20mph. This is very likely going to be a weather impacted game. Take the under! Rain and wind gusts north of 15mph are a combination for unders. This line has not moved enough yet – the early opening price was 45.5 and it is now down to 44.5. Considering 44 and 43 are both key numbers for betting NFL totals, bet this now before it is lower than 44.
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Bet: Under 44.5