How Rams vs. Seahawks will impact NFC West odds

The Rams’ odds to win the West will swing 35% in one direction depending on Thursday’s outcome

There’s no bigger game on the NFL slate this week than the one kicking things off on Thursday. The Los Angeles Rams are visiting the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West showdown at Lumen Field, with the winner taking over sole possession of first place in the division.

Neither the Rams nor the Seahawks can clinch the division title by winning Thursday’s game, but Los Angeles can nearly lock it up by taking down Seattle on the road.

According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the Rams currently have a 60% chance to win the West. The Seahawks’ odds sit at 30%, so Los Angeles has a significant edge despite both teams being 11-3. That’s because the Rams already won the first meeting with Seattle and can complete the sweep by winning again on Thursday. That would force the Seahawks to finish a game ahead of the Rams in order to win the division.

A loss to Seattle would be devastating for the Rams but it won’t end their hopes of winning the West or the No. 1 seed. They’d still have a shot at both if the Seahawks slip up against the Panthers and the 49ers don’t win out.

Here’s how Thursday’s game will impact each team’s odds to win the NFC West.

Rams’ odds with a win: 95%Rams’ odds with a loss: 26%Seahawks’ odds with a win: 55%Seahawks’ odds with a loss: 2%

If the Rams were to lose on Thursday, their easiest path back to a division title involves some help from the Panthers. They would need to win their final two games against the Falcons and Cardinals, and the Seahawks would need to lose to the Panthers before beating the 49ers in Week 18. That would put the Rams and Seahawks at 13-4, with San Francisco being 12-5, but the Rams would win the tiebreaker based on their record in common games.

If the Rams beat the Seahawks this week, they could potentially clinch the West as early as Week 17. They would need to beat the Falcons and have the 49ers lose one of their next two games. That would put the Rams at 13-3 entering the final week, with the 49ers 11-5 and the Seahawks 12-4. But because the Rams will have swept the Seahawks, they’ll own the head-to-head tiebreaker entering Week 18 with no chance of Seattle overtaking them.

The Rams’ main focus is on beating the Seahawks this week before worrying about any other clinching scenarios in Week 17, but it’s good to know that even if they lose on Thursday, they won’t be out of contention for the division title. They’ll just need some help instead of controlling their own fate.