I am glad Philip Rivers taught his kids, both from birth and from the high school team he coaches, never to be scared when he squeezed into his Indianapolis Colts jersey last Sunday. But … please don’t make me watch the 44-year-old Rivers play another NFL game.
The arm is long gone, and, while never light on his feet, he’s basically a tree planted in the ground now. Hey, can Rivers read a defense and complete two-thirds of his 6-yard passes? Darn skippy. But nobody wants to watch that. And the Colts shouldn’t have redesigned their offense in Week 15 to that end.
That an 8-5 team had to resort to calling up a retired QB doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in the coach or general manager. And what a message to rookie quarterback Riley Leonard, whom the team drafted and had in meetings and practice since training camp — and can throw a football 20 yards. The Colts think he stinks.
And he might. But at least he stinks with upside. Like a lot of quarterbacks this season. Like me picking games last year … and now look at me, chasing .500 against the spread!
Last week’s record: 7-9 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets
Season record: 108-110-6 against the spread, 36-39 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime
A couple of big injuries in this huge rematch: Rams receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) is doubtful, while Seahawks left tackle Charles Cross is out. The last time these two teams played, Sam Darnold had twice as many yards as Matthew Stafford — whom the Seahawks held to the worst EPA per pass play in five years — but Darnold threw four interceptions, and the Seahawks lost by two points.
The Rams use a lot more multi-tight-end sets now, but the Seahawks have allowed a league-best 3.9 yards per play against multi-tight-end sets. Do-everything safety Nick Emmanwori might become a household name Thursday night. Meanwhile, Darnold has a new toy in Rashid Shaheed. He’ll hit him for a big play or two against a vulnerable Rams secondary.
The pick: Seahawks
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders | 5 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox
The Eagles shut out the Raiders, and all their problems just went away? Nah. The Raiders don’t count. No way I am laying 6.5 points on the road.
The pick: Commanders
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Chicago Bears | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Mike Vrabel, Liam Coen and Kyle Shanahan should take a bow. But Ben Johnson has run away with Coach of the Year honors. He’s built the best running attack in the NFL, and quarterback Caleb Williams gets better every week. Last week, Williams completed 10 of 13 passes for 141 yards, two touchdowns and a 151.0 passer rating on play-action passes, and the Packers just lost the heart of their defense in Micah Parsons. The Bears avenge the close loss from two weeks ago.
The pick: Bears
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-4.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
I really wanted to go against Tyler Shough this week, as he is being crowned way too soon. Unfortunately, the Jets are going with Brady Cook over Tyrod Taylor … but I am stubborn, so I dialed up my analytics hotline. Here you go: Shough has averaged nearly 4 more yards per attempt against zone (8.8) than against man (5.0) over the past two weeks. The Jets have run man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Boom.
The pick: Jets
Cincinnati Bengals (-4) at Miami Dolphins | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Joe Burrow let the world know he was miserable last week, and the Bengals were shut out. This week, he reminds other teams what they would be getting if they could trade for him.
The Dolphins are on a short week, and Mike McDaniel is trying to save his job by finally benching Tua Tagovailoa. But this is a bad spot, as Burrow is 45-24 when not favored by more than a touchdown. I don’t love how the spread has moved six points since Tagovailoa was benched, as people think rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers stinks with no upside.
The pick: Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Cowboys beat last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Eagles and Chiefs, but haven’t won since Thanksgiving. The Chargers also just beat the Eagles and Chiefs and will now lose to the Cowboys. It’s the circle of life. And hakuna matata. Justin Herbert has been taking a beating the past two weeks, and the Chargers’ defense is not up to carrying him again, as George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb have big games with the pressure now totally off them.
The pick: Cowboys
Buffalo Bills (-10) at Cleveland Browns | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Browns’ offensive line is dreadful, but their defense has been pretty good at home and has contained running quarterbacks everywhere — Cleveland has allowed opposing QBs to scramble for six first downs all season, tied for fewest in the league. So Josh Allen’s cape might be at the cleaners this week.
The Bills are coming off an incredible comeback win over the Patriots and host the Super Bowl champs next week. You really think they’re worried about a team where the coach and quarterback can’t get the wristband play sheet right? The Bills win, but not by 10.
The pick: Browns
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at New York Giants | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
When he’s not been in the blue tent, Giants rookie Jaxson Dart has actually had success against pressure the past three games, ranking second in the NFL in passer rating on pressured dropbacks (102.1). Sounds good, as I have no interest in J.J. McCarthy and a team that doesn’t get Justin Jefferson the ball as a road favorite.
The pick: Giants
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Chiefs had chances to put the Chargers away early last week, only to lose Patrick Mahomes and watch Gardner Minshew throw a terrible interception. (At least Raiders fans got to enjoy one highlight.) The Chiefs will also likely be without their one playmaker, as Rashee Rice (concussion) has taken some vicious hits the past two weeks, and there is no reason to play him the week after the dynasty ends. The Titans, meanwhile, rank fourth in yards per rush over the past two weeks (5.8).
The pick: Titans
How bad could things get for the Chiefs with Gardner Minshew at QB? (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Carolina Panthers | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Still in shock from the Buccaneers’ collapse against Kirk Cousins last week. I have also been on the wrong side with the hot-and-cold Panthers just about every week, but while Baker Mayfield has been playing hurt, so has Bucs stud defensive tackle Vita Vea. The Panthers will run it down the Buccaneers’ throats.
The pick: Panthers
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
There is some value here, as the not-terrible Cardinals are coming off two blowout losses to the Rams and Texans — two tall orders. The Falcons, meanwhile, won their second game in nine weeks because Cousins somehow led three scoring drives in the fourth quarter.
The pick: Cardinals
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The two most-penalized teams in the league square off, both riding winning streaks. The Broncos have won 11 straight, but last week was the first time they won because of Bo Nix. The second-year QB was dealing, posting a completion percentage over expected of 15.1 percent and throwing 23.5 percent of his passes into tight coverage. He fares better here than Trevor Lawrence does against the Broncos’ blitzes and pass rush.
The pick: Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans (-14.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The only time the Raiders covered the spread in the past five weeks was when Pete Carroll kicked a field goal down 10 as time expired two weeks ago. They haven’t hit bottom yet.
The pick: Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-7) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Maybe I am an ageist, which is ironic, as my sides are mostly gray now. But I also don’t believe in Aaron Rodgers and this Steelers’ rebirth. They couldn’t stop the run before last week, and now they get an angry Lions team coming off a 70-yards-on-the-ground loss. Furthermore, Rodgers has had a higher share of his passing yards come after the catch than any other qualified QB over the past two weeks (66 percent). The Lions have allowed the second-fewest YAC per attempt league-wide (4.4).
The pick: Lions
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Ravens are starting to warm up. Last week, Derrick Henry reached the 100-yard mark on only 11 carries, with three runs of 22 yards or more after halftime. The Patriots are coming off a crushing loss and now rank 30th in rush EPA per play and 31st in rush success rate since defensive tackle Milton Williams went down in Week 11.
Interesting twist: When the Ravens win and the Lions beat the Steelers, the two AFC North contenders can rest their players in meaningless games next week ahead of the head-to-head matchup in Week 18 in Pittsburgh.
The pick: Ravens
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
Here’s hoping the 49ers don’t take a hard look in the mirror soon. Because 10-4 teams aren’t supposed to have 11 sacks in the 11 games while giving up almost a yard more per carry on the ground (4.3 to 3.5) to opponents. The Colts, with Jonathan Taylor, should be a scary matchup, as they were one of the best under-center teams in the league. But they scrapped that so a 44-year-old, out-of-shape high school football coach could play quarterback.
The pick: 49ers
Best bets: We’re back on the Ravens (against the reeling Patriots) again, and the Lions and Bengals also turn back the clock and put up enough points to cover against the Steelers and Dolphins, respectively. We’ve become big believers in Ben Johnson and in Bo Nix (for a week, at least), as the Bears and Broncos keep it rolling against the Packers and Jaguars.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Tony Pollard’s shocking march through the fantasy playoffs continues, as the Titans show no sympathy and run over the Chiefs at +145.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett