Eagles (9-5) at Commanders (4-10), Saturday 5:00pm

Point spread/ML – Eagles -6.5/-295          Commanders +6.5/+240

Total points (O/U) – 44.5 points

Analysis: The Commanders are coming off a win, something they haven’t been able to say since Week 5. They also haven’t been able to say “good effort” to their defense much lately. Since that win in Week 5 they have allowed more than 33 ppg. This won’t be the walk in the park that last week was for the Eagles, but facing this defense, and Marcus Mariota leading Washington’s offense, it’ll be close to it.

Picks: Eagles -6.5, OVER 44.5 points

Passing Props (O/U)

Marcus Mariota – 202.5 yards, 1.5 TD (+205/-290), 18.5 completions, 30.5 attempts

Jalen Hurts – 217.5 yards, 1.5 TD (-125/-106), 18.5 completions, 28.5 attempts

Analysis: The Eagles D has been strong in recent weeks against the pass, allowing less than 200 yards in 8/10, and 11 sacks in the last two games, even without DT Jalen Carter. Hurts should have time to pick his targets Saturday. Commanders rank 24th in Pressure% and dead last in Hurry%.

Picks: Mariota OVER attempts; Hurts OVER yards, UNDER attempts

Rushing Props (O/U)

Saquon Barkley – 75.5 yards, 17.5 attempts

Hurts – 27.5 yards, 7.5 attempts

Chris Rodriguez – 43.5 yards

Mariota – 29.5 yards

Jacory Croskey-Merrit – 26.5 yards

Analysis: Washington’s run defense is a rough watch. They have allowed 4.8 yds/carry or more in 8/10. The issue is the relative health of the Eagles’ offensive line. Lane Johnson is not expected to return (foot), his backup, Fred Johnson (ankle), as well as guard Landon Dickerson (calf) haven’t practiced this week.

The Commanders running back-by-committee is a confusing one. Croskey-Merritt seems to produce when he plays, but they yo-yo him in and out of the lineup too often to gain a rhythm. They’re a stay away for me.

Picks: Mariota OVER yards; Barkley OVER yards

Receiving Props (O/U)

AJ Brown – 60.5 yards, 5.5 receptions

DeVonta Smith – 57.5 yards, 4.5 receptions

Dallas Goedert – 38.5 yards, 3.5 receptions

Terry McLaurin – 56.5 yards, 4.5 receptions

Deebo Samuel – 45.5 yards, 4.5 receptions

Barkley – 15.5 yards, 2.5 receptions

Jahan Dotson – 8.5 yards

Treylon Burks – 12.5 yards, 1.5 receptions

Analysis: I don’t know why AJ Brown has a burr in his saddle for this team, but he’s played 3 games in DC against the Commanders: 5/85/1, 8/130/2, 8/97/1. McLaurin figures to be head-to-head with All-World CB Quinyon Mitchell, so we must fade him. Someone has re-introduced Hurts and Goedert a couple weeks ago, so look for him to feature.

Picks: Brown OVER yards; Goedert OVER yards, OVER receptions; McLaurin UNDER yards

Anytime Touchdowns

Barkley   -120

Hurts   +100

Brown   +125

Smith   +175

Goedert/Rodriguez   +195

McLaurin   +230

Samuel   +250

Mariota   +290

Croskey-Merritt   +410

Eagles D   +750

Washington D   +1100

Analysis: I don’t see a ton of scoring for Washington. Samuel out of the slot look like the most value. In spite of his line’s injuries, Barkley is starting to find a bit of a groove. And Hurts will clean up in goal-to-go situations.

Picks: Barkley, Brown, Hurts; Samuel