LeRoy Butler talks about how the Packers can win without Micah Parsons
LeRoy Butler and Tom Silverstein consider what Micah Parsons’s loss means for defensive players, including Rashan Gary, who will have to step up.
A 4½-point swing on a Week 16 point spread in a playoff clinching NFL game between division foes? Seriously, what are the odds on that?
OK, sure it’s almost a lock for the Green Bay Packers to be favored at the beginning of the week against the Chicago Bears at this time of year. The perennial playoff-contending Packers have won 17 of the last 20 games against their rivals and 13 of the last 14.
But with control of the NFC North up for grabs for the second time in three weeks and a playoff bid on the line 7:20 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 20, this hasn’t been an ordinary week at all. It’s likely not many gamblers would have placed a bet that the Packers would have been favored at Soldier Field for most of the week after losing star edge rusher Micah Parsons to a season-ending, non-contact knee injury in last week’s 34-26 loss to the Denver Broncos.
It doesn’t take a math wiz to understand why losing a player of Parson’s skill and impact would now make the Packers underdogs against Caleb Williams and the Bears in Week 16. But instead Green Bay opened as 3-point favorites and were still the favorites in the betting market until Josh Jacobs’ questionable status appears to have put a rush of money on the Bears. The line has shifted 2.5 to three points since Thursday.
Even with the swing, MGM still gives the Packers a 51.8% chance to win the game.
So considering the fact that Parsons is not playing and the Packers had a significant amount of injuries heading into the most important game of the season, why were handicappers in Las Vegas continuing to like the Packers over the Bears until Friday.
Is it because the Bears have yet to prove themselves as the toughest part of their schedule appears to be the last three weeks of the season?
Does it matter that the Packers have dominated the series for an extended period of time, or because the Chicago Bears also have key players unavailable?
While all of that is considered, according to an betting expert who was interviewed this week by the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs, it has more to do with the fact that Parsons doesn’t play quarterback.
ESPN’s Joe Fortenbaugh explained the opening -3 figure favoring the Packers was established before Parsons was hurt and that number was almost immediately adjusted to -1 after it was clear Parsons would not play Saturday.
“People were smart enough to realize there was something wrong with Parsons. It was a noncontact injury,” Fortenbaugh told the Tribune. “They hung the number at three and it got hit immediately and it’s down to one. That’s only two points but it’s moving off of three, which is a big move in itself.”
However, because he’s not an offensive signal-caller, the number apparently wouldn’t shift as much as many fans and bettors think.
“I can’t say Parsons is worth more than like a point because non-quarterbacks are not going to be worth a whole lot,” Fortenbaugh said. “That’s still very respectful to say he’s worth at least a point off of three, and the market is telling you he’s probably worth two because it has dropped to one.”
National websites appear split on the game:
“Give me Ben Johnson’s run game at home versus the Packers. The Bears rushed for 90 second-half yards in the Week 14 head-to-head matchup, delivering body punches with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Bears control the tempo of this game on the ground, and Caleb Williams makes enough plays outside of structure to cover the spread.”
Projection: Bears +1.5
“The injury list for the Packers is a concern, but so is the Bears’. I think the market moved a bit too far on this one.
“The Packers won’t have Micah Parsons and are unlikely to have Zach Tom, significant losses on each side of the ball. They will, though, likely have Christian Watson, after he logged limited practices on both Wednesday and Thursday. With how much he boosts the offense’s lid-lifting abilities, that’s huge.
As for the Bears, not only is Rome Odunze out again, but so is Luther Burden III, robbing them of two of their top three receivers. With the offense still posting just middling efficiency numbers – they’re numberFire’s 13th-ranked pass offense – they need help. The falloff after D.J. Moore and Colston Loveland is concerning.”
Projection: Packers -2.5
“Losing Micah Parsons for the season due to a torn ACL is a gut punch for the Packers. The star pass rusher had 12.5 sacks on the season (tied for third-most in the NFL), and his absence completely changes how we look at the club’s chances of making a Super Bowl run. It also changes how opposing offenses game plan against them, and should make life wildly easier for Caleb Williams and Co. as they look to keep hold of the NFC North crown.”
Projection: Bears 28, Packers 26
“The Packers took several blows in their loss at Denver, with Micah Parsons hurting their defense and Christian Watson and Zach Tom being a tough 1-2 punch on the offense. They still have Jordan Love and the running game and a solid run defense. Caleb Williams and the Bears’ run defense will oblige as the Packers finish a season sweep in swift succession.”
Projection: Packers 20, Bears 17
Six writers are split on the Packers and Bears this week.