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The Washington Commanders received an “explosive” warning about Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley before Week 16.
They are still trying to salvage some pride from a lost season, so the Washington Commanders can’t ignore an “explosive” warning about former NFL rushing champion Saquon Barkley before Week 16’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
It’s a warning from NFL.com Fantasy Analyst Michael Florio, who predicts Barkley “explodes for his best fantasy game of the year.” Florio’s prediction is informed by numbers from Next Gen Stats that show “the Commanders’ defense has ranked among the three worst teams in explosive run rate against and yards before contact allowed per carry since Week 11. What does that mean? RBs have had lots of room to run against Washington, hitting long runs at a high rate.”
Even though “Barkley is averaging about 1 yard before contact less compared to last year (2.4 to 1.3),” the Commanders would be smart not to ignore another warning about Barkley.
They’re not likely to after Barkley tore through Washington’s defense for 146 and 150 yards in two games during the 2024 regular season. He also gained 118 yards on the ground in last season’s NFC Championship Game.
The Commanders spent the offseason retooling their defensive front to combat Barkley, but the changes haven’t exactly worked. It’s why Florio isn’t the only one anticipating more trouble for the Commanders from Barkley at Northwest Stadium on Saturday, December 20.
Saquon Barkley Tipped for Another ‘Explosive’ Day
Limiting big plays in the running game is still proving elusive for the Commanders, with the numbers making for grim reading, no matter the source. For instance, Thomas Valentine of Pro Football Focus notes how “The Commanders’ PFF run-defense grade (60.0) is 23rd in the NFL, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most explosive runs (45) in 2025. The Eagles, even with their inconsistent play, are eighth in explosive runs (40). Barkley has totaled 11 explosive rushes on the season, and three in the last two games.”
The timing of this matchup could hardly be worse for the shaky Washington run D’. Especially since Barkley looked more like himself when he ripped off this 52 yard rush against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14.
Facing the ’24 version of Barkley would be would be a brutal way to judge what, if any, improvements the Commanders have made since head coach Dan Quinn took over calling the defense.
Commanders Defense Still on Shaky Ground
Quinn taking hold of the play-sheet has hardly made the Commanders tougher against the run. The ongoing frailty consistently undermined Quinn’s unit during last week’s 29-21 win over another NFC East rival, the New York Giants.
Big Blue ran for 146 yards and a touchdown on just 29 rushing attempts, per Pro Football Reference. The numbers show how generous the Commanders remain on the deck, an issue borne from their inability to reset the line of scrimmage, get off blocks and swarm to the football.
Those things sound elementary, but the Commanders aren’t doing them, despite some big names up front. They include $45 million defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw and Pro Bowler Daron Payne, both former first-round NFL draft picks.
Kinlaw and Payne are floundering, but they aren’t being helped by the lack of a true edge-setter. The Commanders have been without one of those since former New England Patriots defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. suffered a season-ending quad injury back in Week 2.
Similar problems exist at the linebacker level, where 10-time Pro Bowler Bobby Wagner has been below his best. The lack of physicality is unlikely to be solved by shifting 225-pound Jordan Magee to a new position.
Quinn will need something different, a new alignment and alternative ways to attack the Eagles’ blocking schemes, to prevent Barkley from running riot again.
James Dudko covers the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens for Heavy.com. He has covered the NFL and world soccer since 2011, with bylines at FanSided, Prime Time Sports Talk and Bleacher Report before joining Heavy in 2021. More about James Dudko
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