The Green Bay Packers will attempt to take control of the NFC North and sweep another division rival when Matt LaFleur’s team takes on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in primetime on Saturday night.
With a win, the Packers would leap into first place in the division and take over the No. 2 seed in the NFC entering the final two weeks. Regardless of the winner, the overwhelming favorite in the NFC North will be determined by the end of Saturday night.
Five keys to the Packers beating the Bears in Week 16:
1. Contain Caleb
The Bears offense struggled to find open receivers in the first meeting, but Caleb Williams was able to hold the ball and create a few explosive plays off schedule. This is how Williams wants to play, so completely preventing him from playing off schedule is close to impossible. But the Packers can do a better job of containment rushing and keeping Williams from breaking the pocket, limiting his opportunities to throw on the run or off platform. In the rematch, the Packers need to make Williams play from the pocket, where his down-to-down variance is high.
2. Protect Love and explosive plays
Not having right tackle Zach Tom, the team’s best blocker, would complicate the ability to keep Jordan Love protected, even against a below average defensive front. But protecting the quarterback is absolutely vital to this team with the playoffs nearing. In the first meeting, Love threw for 204 yards and three scores while averaging 12.0 yards per attempt and hitting multiple explosive plays downfield from clean pockets. Last week, Love was under pressure on over 50 percent of his dropbacks, and the passing game eventually flatlined. The offensive line is this team’s linchpin. The Packers can beat anyone anywhere if the line protects Love. If he’s protected Saturday, the team’s speed at wide receiver could overwhelm Chicago again.
3. Survive against the run
The Bears will likely come into Saturday night feeling pretty good about the offense’s ability to control the line of scrimmage and run the football after mostly dominating the second half of the first meeting at Lambeau Field. Ben Johnson’s team will also be without a pair of top receivers, increasing the importance of the run game. Can the Packers survive against the run without Micah Parsons, a disruptor up front, and likely Evan Williams, one of the NFL’s best run-defending safeties? Johnson is going to feed D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Packers either answer the call up front defensively or Chicago could control the game from start to finish.
4. Win the turnover battle
In the first meeting, the Packers survived an early Jordan Love interception by playing adversity defense and then delivered a takeaway in the game’s crucial moment. Now more than ever, producing takeaways is going to be a top priority for the Packers’ defense. Consistently getting stops without Micah Parsons will be immensely more difficult, but turnovers can be the equalizer. Defensive backs need to catch the football when given opportunities. For Love and the offense, Saturday needs to be a clean, turnover-free performance. The Packers are 4-0 on the road when they don’t have a turnover and 0-2-1 when they turn it over at least once. The Bears rank first in takeaways (30).
5. Find 35
Kyler Gordon is on injured reserve, so C.J. Gardner-Johnson (No. 35) will likely be the Bears’ slot corner again on Saturday. Can the Packers find ways to punish him again in the rematch? The veteran allowed eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown and missed four tackles in the first meeting. He’s a feisty, physical player, but he also lacks the speed to keep up with the likes of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden, and he didn’t tackle well in the run game. Matt LaFleur and the Packers must find ways to get their fastest receivers isolated downfield against Gardner-Johnson and safeties Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker.