The Chicago Bears are primed to make their first playoff appearance since 2020, but there’s still plenty of work to be done in the final three weeks of the 2025 regular season. That starts Saturday night against the Green Bay Packers.
According to NFL.com, the Bears currently have a 79 percent chance of making the playoffs. If Chicago beats Green Bay, that jumps to 95 percent. But if the Bears get swept by the Packers, it falls to 61 percent. Assuming Chicago takes care of business against Green Bay, there’s a likelihood they could earn a postseason berth by Week 16’s end.
Let’s take a look at the current NFC playoff picture entering Week 16, as well as our Bears playoff rooting guide:
Current NFC playoff picture in Week 16Seattle Seahawks (12-3)Chicago Bears (10-4)Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)Los Angeles Rams (11-4)San Francisco 49ers (10-4)Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)Bears beat the Packers
Well, this one goes without saying. The Bears need to beat the Packers to retain their stance in first place in the NFC North, as well as add a little cushion at 1.5 games. Chicago lost a close one to Green Bay just two weeks ago, which lost them the NFC North lead (which they regained last week). But this prime-time affair will be for first place in the NFC North once again, and it’s a crucial game for both sides in the playoff race.
Steelers beat the Lions
This is the biggest game outside of the Bears’ prime-time showdown against the Packers, and it’ll have massive playoff implications in the NFC. Chicago is going to need some help from their old foe Aaron Rodgers and his Steelers, who battle the Lions on Sunday. A Bears win, coupled with a Detroit loss, means Chicago would earn their first playoff berth since 2020.
Colts over 49ers
If the Bears don’t win the NFC North, there’s still a chance for them to earn a wild card spot. But it’s shaping up to be quite the race for those wild card spots, including the 49ers (who are the third team from the NFC West in the playoffs right now). If the Colts beat San Francisco, it would drop the 49ers to 10-5 ahead of their Week 17 prime-time showing against the Bears. Every win — or loss, in this case — matters for Chicago and their competition.
Commanders over Eagles
Let’s say, best case scenario, the Bears win the NFC North and secure at least one home playoff game. There’s other playoff seeding in play, including for the No. 1 seed (which might be out of reach and seems destined to be the Seahawks or Rams). But an Eagles loss to the Commanders would drop them to 9-6 and put even more distance between the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. Regardless, if Chicago takes care of business on Satrurday, they’d have a one-game advantage and the head-to-head tiebreake
How Bears can clinch a playoff spot in Week 16
The Bears can secure a playoff spot as early as this week, although the NFC North race is still ongoing. Chicago needs to beat the Packers on Saturday night, and the Lions need to lose to the Steelers. If both of those things happen, the Bears will earn their first playoff berth since 2020.