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No Micah Parsons is a disaster for the Green Bay Packers.
Coach Matt LaFleur’s group is dealing with tons of injuries all along the defense that could really hamper them this week.
The Packers barely squeaked by the Bears in a 28-21 win on Dec. 7, but that game was in Green Bay.
This time, the Bears host in Chicago.
Green Bay has a 4-2-1 record on the road, but its defense, oddly enough, struggles compared to how elite it is at home.
The Packers allow an NFL-best 4.2 yards per play at home compared to a paltry 5.1 on the road. The loss of Parsons will likely only escalate this reality.
Things get even more interesting in this NFC North divisional match since the Bears play much better at home.
In this bizarre trend, the Bears allow 6.6 yards per play on the road and just 5.1 at home. Their offense has also seen a slight uptick to 5.8 yards per play at home compared to 5.4 on the road.
The Bears are also 4-2 against the spread (ATS) at Soldier Field, while the Packers are a terrible 2-5 ATS on the road.
Moreover, the Over is 6-1 in Packers road games.
So, is there a home-field advantage in this matchup? It seems like something that the Bears should be able to take advantage of and maybe improve their past performance against the rival.
The Packers are well ahead historically in this matchup, with the record standing at 108-96-6.
Packers QB Jordan Love throws a pass. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Injury-wise, the Packers have a lot to put up with here.
Between Parsons’ season-ending injury and the uncertain status of safety Evan Williams and tackle Zach Tom, I think the Bears could be facing a whole different team Saturday.
The Bears aren’t without injuries of their own, as Rome Odunze and Luther Burden were both ruled out for this contest.
Those injuries lead me to my first bet.
Betting on the NFL?
Olamide Zaccheaus has been the Bears’ No. 3 receiver all season. While D.J. Moore is a good fit to step in as their top receiver this week, I see him as more of their deep threat.
Zaccheaus is -160 to go Over 2.5 receptions Saturday and it’s one of my favorites of the weekend.
The veteran started the season going Over 2.5 receptions in five of nine games before he began to lose a stronghold on the slot role, with Burden, Moore and Odunze playing over him.
Now that there’s no one blocking his path to playing time, and a must-win game in front of them, Zaccheaus is in an excellent spot to pop Saturday from a volume perspective.
Caleb Williams can show his development with a strong Saturday night performance against the Packers. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Zaccheaus even had a higher target share (13.79 percent) per route run than Burden (11.72 percent).
While we like his chances of going Over 2.5, another intriguing option is Over 4.5 receptions with +340 odds at Bally Bet.
Over 6.5 is also +1320 at DraftKings, a number he’s beaten once already this season, and he ended another game with six earlier this year. Don’t bet more than 1.5 units on his prop totals.
As for a side in this game, I’ll take another trend capitalizing on this team’s ATS trends for their respective situations by taking the Bears ATS in the first half.
BETS: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 2.5 receptions (-160, BetMGM) laddered up to. 6.5 | Bears 1H -0.5 (-118, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.