Keagan Smith outlines three must-start players with smash potential for NFL DFS lineups in Week 16, including Tyler Shough, Michael Carter and Nico Collins.

Yet another NFL Sunday is upon us, meaning it’s time for the latest edition of our weekly must-starts column.

In Week 16, season-long leagues hit the semifinal round while daily fantasy options continue to heat up as well. While this column leans toward the NFL DFS side of things, the same advice can apply to other formats as well — we just want to help you win your leagues. After crunching the numbers, we’ve got another three must-start players for your fantasy football contests. Whether a standout talent to build lineups around or an intriguing value with matchup and salary, these are guys who can smash and win the week. Let’s jump right in.

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QB Tyler Shough, Saints vs. Jets ($5,400)

If you read my weekly column, welcome back. I bet you’re stunned I didn’t put Jacoby Brissett here, and frankly, I am too! I’m starting him in my home league for season-long this week following the Mahomes injury, so I’m admittedly a smidge afraid to jinx it. However, there’s another must-start option I wrote about earlier this week as a value quarterback with a nice lil’ ceiling as he faces a poor Jets defense. Saints rookie Tyler Shough actually looks quite nice, and even like the game script for him better than I do for Brissett this week. You can find the longer article linked below this section, but here are the basics.

Shough has a pretty respectable floor and averages 16.5 FPPG in six games as the starter in New Orleans, good for the QB11 on the slate in FPPG. He’s come alive with 270+ yards and a 65% completion rate or better in two of his three most recent games, also showing the ability to contribute with his legs while scoring a pair of rushing touchdowns with an extra couple of fantasy points via that yardage. The matchup against New York is tasty, with the Jets allowing the 10th-most passing yards and fourth-highest passer rating since trading away All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner and gutting the rest of the defense. They’ve also conceded the fourth-most passing touchdowns and rank 27th in scramble percentage allowed. Does it set up a big day for Shough? I’m leaning towards yes as he makes a case to remain QB1 heading into the offseason.

RB Michael Carter, Cardinals vs. Falcons ($5,400)

I feel slightly queasy writing this one, but I’m penciling Michael Carter as a potential value this week. Starting halfback Bam Knight landed on IR for the Cardinals, leaving Carter as the lead option after posting a surprisingly solid outing against a fearsome Texans defense last week. In that game, he generated 13.4 DKFP with 14 rush attempts for 56 yards alongside four catches on four targets for 38 more yards. That’s much better than most halfbacks can say after facing Houston’s see-ball, hit-ball unit.

Yes, Emari Demercado had just returned from an injury in that game but played just 11% of the snaps. Carter took 80% of them as a clear leader in the backfield, and even if he sees something more in the 65%-70% range, he can pop off against a weak Falcons defense. Atlanta falls 28th in defensive EPA/rush, 25th in rushing yards allowed per game (127.9) and 24th in opponent YPC (4.5). Does that sound like a spot in which the opposing running back can succeed? Yes, and the game script could lean somewhat more neutral than the typical pass-happy one we’ve seen with Brissett since Kirk Cousins starts again for the visitors. All it takes is a touchdown for Carter to finish as a borderline RB1 this week, assuming he remains the clear lead option. Take him and open up a little salary elsewhere.

WR Nico Collins, Texans vs. Raiders ($7,500)

I have a confession to make. Do you ever have those players who you have a little bit of a football crush on? Nico Collins is one of mine because this guy can do it all while running around in the frame of a prototypical alpha wideout. You want a 50-yard deep ball? He’s got you with excellent speed, especially a 6-foot-4 receiver. You need a contested catch in the end zone? Collins has you covered for that as well. Throwing over the middle of the field on an in-breaking route? Yep, no issue. The salary is up to $7,500 after a couple weeks at $6,700, so that’s a big jump. I don’t care though, especially since he’s now averaging 16.7 FPPG with 21.5 points or more in four of his last six contests and 19.1 in one of those others.

Collins and the Texans host the Raiders, whose defense remains rather rough. Las Vegas ranks 27th in defensive EPA/pass and 31st in completion percentage allowed. The really fun part, though, is that this unit plays zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. What does that mean for Collins? He’s targeted at the 15th-highest rate against zone according to PFF, which also grades the Raiders 29th in coverage score. Houston’s alpha wideout should feast again with C.J. Stroud, who seems to be on the upswing.