The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) and Tennessee Titans (2-12) meet Sunday in Week 16. Kickoff from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, is slated for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Chiefs vs. Titans odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Chiefs will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014 after losing 16-13 to the LA Chargers in Kansas City in Week 15. They failed to cover as 6-point home favorites as the Under (42) cashed for a second straight week. QB Patrick Mahomes left the game with a torn ACL on the Chiefs’ final drive. QB Gardner Minshew replaced him and threw an interception moments later to end Kansas City’s rally. Minshew will be the Chiefs’ starting QB Sunday.

The Titans lost 37-24 to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 15. Tennessee failed to cover as a 12.5-point underdog as the Over (45) hit. QB Cam Ward went 18-of-29 passing for 170 yards with 2 TDs. The Titans are in a 3-way tie for the worst record in the league and have an 18.9% chance to earn the No. 1 pick again — they drafted Ward first overall in 2025 — in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.

These teams have not met since Nov. 26, 2022. The Titans covered as 13.5-point road underdogs in a Chiefs 20-17 OT win. QB Malik Willis (5-of-16 passing for 80 yards) started for Tennessee, while Mahomes completed 43 of 68 passes for 446 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, adding 63 rushing yards and another score.

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Chiefs at Titans odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:13 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Chiefs -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Titans +135 (bet $100 to win $135)Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs -3 (-102) | Titans +3 (-118)Over/Under (O/U): 37.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Chiefs at Titans key injuries

Chiefs

QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) injured reserveCB Trent McDuffie (knee) outOL Jaylon Moore (knee) outDL Derrick Nnadi (illness) outWR Rashee Rice (concussion) outWR Tyquan Thornton (concussion) out

Titans

CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Achilles) questionableLB Cedric Gray (concussion) outTE Gunnar Helm (toe) questionable; expected to playWR Van Jefferson (back) questionable; on track to playLB Arden Key (illness) questionableOL Kevin Zeitler (groin) questionableChiefs at Titans picks and predictionsPrediction

Chiefs 15, Titans 14

The Chiefs (-160) will likely win — even without Mahomes — but the bid-ask difference is lower when betting the spread or total.

PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Minshew laying 3 points on the road is just too many.

Yes, the Titans are just 2-12 this season, but they have covered 4 of their last 6 games. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have failed to cover 6 straight games — all as favorites — and that was with Mahomes starting.

I would consider the Chiefs at a pick’em, but there’s no way I’m laying 3 points on the road with this team, especially with a backup quarterback after being eliminated from the playoffs.

BET TITANS +3 (-118).

The Chiefs are an Under team (4-10 O/U), while the Titans are an Over team (9-5).

The difference here, though, is that while the Titans have allowed 25 or more points in 4 straight games, I don’t even trust this Chiefs offense to score 19 with Minshew starting. The Chiefs allow the fourth-fewest points per game (19.1) in the NFL, so I trust them to limit Tennessee in Week 16, helping the Under cash for the ninth time in 10 games.

BET UNDER 37.5 (-110).

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