Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 16’s game between the New York Giants and the Minnesota Vikings.

MetLife gets these games when the standings are already settled and the tape still matters. Minnesota is 6–8, New York is 2–12, and the playoff race is gone. The Giants live under the No. 1 pick shadow, even if nobody says it out loud. Wind at this stadium turns routine drives into decision drives. J.J. McCarthy (QB) and Jaxson Dart (QB) are playing for next season’s trust, not this season’s seed. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 16’s game between the New York Giants and the Minnesota Vikings.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The recent efficiency split tilts Minnesota, and the player ecosystems explain why. Over Weeks 13–15, the Vikings climbed to +0.002 EPA/play after sitting at -0.060 across Weeks 11–15. The Giants slid from -0.076 to -0.109 EPA/play over that same comparison. Minnesota tightened the chains to a 41.0% third-down rate in Weeks 13–15, while New York cratered to 25.0%. Both red zones stay stubborn, with Minnesota at 29.3% and New York at 28.6% lately. Protection is the oxygen here, and New York’s recent pressure rate allowed sits at 50.4%. Minnesota’s sits at 39.1%, and that gap changes the risk tolerance on second-and-long. That’s also where the run games matter, because both staffs need early-down stability to avoid living in obvious pass downs.

The Vikings have been steady enough to keep the run credible, with a 10.5% explosive run rate in Weeks 13–15, and Aaron Jones (RB) can turn routine carries into manageable third downs while still functioning as the outlet. The Giants have actually popped more explosive runs lately at 12.6%, and Tyrone Tracy (RB) plus Devin Singletary (RB) become the practical antidote to their own protection issues. Minnesota also brings stress on defense, living in the 36–39% pressure band with a 42.7% blitz rate in Weeks 13–15, which makes a functional run game even more valuable as a pressure-release valve.

The Vikings’ passing tree is clean and concentrated, with Justin Jefferson (WR) at a 29.5% target share and Jordan Addison (WR) carrying the vertical bite with a 13.6 aDOT. T.J. Hockenson (TE) is the underneath stabilizer with a 5.0 aDOT, and he matters when man coverage squeezes spacing. Jones is the outlet that keeps drives alive, running routes at 56.6% participation with a 21.4% targets-per-route rate, and that pairs naturally with early-down rushing to keep McCarthy out of the blitz blender. New York’s tree is similarly top-heavy, with Wan’Dale Robinson (WR) at 29.6% share and Theo Johnson (TE) as the next reliable slice. Darius Slayton (WR) is the deep lever with a 15.2 aDOT on lighter volume, and the backs have to keep the offense on schedule when the pocket caves.

The quarterback splits tell the real story of how pressure will price this game snap-to-snap. McCarthy is basically break-even in a clean pocket at +0.007 EPA/dropback, then he collapses to -0.448 under pressure. Blitz looks sharpen the edge, with McCarthy at -0.422 versus blitz and a 5.3% interception rate. He also holds it longer at 2.84 seconds, with a 38.5% quick-game rate and a 5.7% scramble rate. Dart is built for a messier afternoon. He’s strong clean at +0.155 and stays near even under pressure at -0.046. He’s also positive versus blitz at +0.019, and the ball security stands out at a 1.5% INT rate. He plays faster at 2.74 seconds, lives in quick game at 51.3%, and scrambles at a 10.0% rate when the picture breaks. That contrast matters because the Giants have been forced into extreme neutral pass posture, sitting at a 121.3% neutral pass rate in Weeks 13–15 despite the protection leaks. Minnesota’s neutral pass rate is lower, and the recent offensive improvement suggests more balance and cleaner sequencing. The cleanest path for both offenses starts on the ground, because the quarterbacks wear very different costs when the game turns into pure dropback survival.

Vikings vs. Giants pick, best bet

The pushback starts with Minnesota’s fragility point, because it is real. Even with pressure allowed dipping to 39.1% lately, the Vikings still carry a 9.6% sack rate in Weeks 13–15. A windy MetLife day plus a high sack rate can turn three drives into field-position misery. New York’s defense also leans man at roughly 35% lately, and that can force tighter throws if timing slips. McCarthy’s 5.3% INT rate means one late ball can flip the entire story. But the refutation is that New York’s offense is living in a deeper pit. That 50.4% pressure allowed number is a weekly emergency, and the 25.0% third-down rate is what happens after the first mistake. Even Dart’s admirable blitz and pressure splits still require functional down-and-distance. New York’s explosive pass rate has also dipped to 12.0% in Weeks 13–15, so there are fewer cheap, instant bailouts. If the Giants can’t win early downs, the game becomes a steady diet of pressure problems and punt decisions.

The number asks a simple question: can Minnesota win a game that will feel ugly for stretches. Vikings -2.5 is priced like a coin flip with one extra Minnesota drive, and that lines up with the third-down gap and the pressure gap. The total at 43.5 sits in a brittle band, because wind, sacks, and a debut kicker can create weird scoring shapes. This does not need to be a “clean under” or a “clean over” to decide the side. The most stable edge is drive sustainability, and Minnesota has been meaningfully better there lately. The pick is Vikings -2.5, with the understanding that the game can look messy and still land correctly.

Minnesota should lean into condensed formations and quick answers because McCarthy’s blitz split is a warning label. Jefferson and Hockenson should be featured early because New York plays man at a higher rate and those are the separators. Jones should stay active in the route concept because his targets-per-route rate punishes pressure looks with easy yards. New York should answer with even more quick game because Dart already lives under 2.5 seconds. Robinson and Johnson should see steady volume because that is how the Giants avoid third-and-nine. Tracy and Singletary should stay involved as outlets because the line has been underwater for weeks. The game likely swings on whether the Giants can string together two conversion drives without a sack turning the series. Minnesota has the better recent third-down profile, and it has the pressure profile that forces mistakes.

Vikings 23, Giants 17.

Best bet: Vikings -2.5 (-120) vs. Giants

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Wan’Dale Robinson 6+ receptions (-110) is the prop that matches the whole shape, and it’s playable up to about -140 if the market stays juiced. A 29.6% target share doesn’t need a good offensive day to cash; it just needs the Giants to keep answering pressure with quick throws. New York has been under siege up front, allowing pressure on 50.4% of dropbacks in the recent window, and Minnesota’s defense lives in heat with a 42.7% blitz rate lately. That forces Dart into the fast game he already prefers, with a 51.3% quick-game rate, plus positive EPA versus blitz and strong ball security. Robinson is the primary catch sponge in that world, sitting on 120 targets and 78 catches on the season, and the Vikings’ pass defense profile pushes the same decision tree: take the underneath completions, stay out of sacks, and live to punt. This prop wins even if the Giants stall, because five-yard catches still count the same.

Best prop lean: Wan’Dale Robinson 6+ receptions (-110)

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