Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans in NFL Week 16.

Week 16 of the NFL regular season has arrived, bringing a loaded slate of games on Sunday. The Houston Texans are surging, winning five consecutive games heading into this critical juncture of the campaign just before the postseason. At 4:25 p.m. EST, they host a lowly Las Vegas Raiders group at NRG Stadium for what projects as one of the more lopsided matchups on the slate. Where’s the betting value in this game?

Read on for a Raiders vs. Texans prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 16 contest.

Raiders vs. Texans prediction, preview

To put things plainly, this may turn into one of the uglier matchups of the Week 16 schedule. The Texans are on a winning streak at 9-5, finally hitting their stride as they compete for a third consecutive AFC South title on the backs of the NFL’s most fearsome defensive unit. They’re holding opponents to a league-best 16.3 points and 269.2 yards per game, also limiting third-down conversions at the third-best rate. The pass rush duo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. haunts opposing quarterbacks as Houston logs the sixth-best sack percentage as the front seven shuts down the run with just 92.7 yards allowed per game. The secondary allows only 176.5 yards per game through the air thanks to Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, and the unit as a whole sits third in takeaways per contest with 1.7. It’s incredibly tough to play against the Texans, and the offense seems to be finding its form now as well. C.J. Stroud leads a group that’s now up to 23.1 points and 327.1 yards per game, both 18th in the league, and he’s thrown for 260+ yards in two of his last three games since returning from injury. Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz have made plays as the top receiving options as the former shows why he’s a top wideout in this league, and the unit just hunt 40 points on the Cardinals last week. The one concern is the lack of a consistent run game especially as both Woody Marks (ankle) and Nick Chubb (ribs) are questionable to play today.

The Raiders will have their work cut out for them this afternoon. Las Vegas enters with a 2-12 record on the season in a miserable campaign, especially compared to the expectations prior to the beginning of the year back in September. Pete Carroll and Geno Smith were supposed to revitalize this franchise but instead have fallen flat on their faces. The offense looks disjointed at best, averaging a league-worst 14.0 points and 244.1 yards per game. It begins with one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines, which keeps the quarterback running for his life behind the line of scrimmage with the second-highest sack percentage. It forces Smith into mistakes, evidenced by his 14 interceptions, but even first-round rookie halfback Ashton Jeanty has struggled to get anything going with poor statistical outputs despite the obvious talent he possesses. The Raiders average only 70.8 rushing yards per contest, dead last in the NFL. The numbers look better on the defensive side of the ball but the eye test doesn’t exactly match, either. Las Vegas is 25th in opponent scoring with 25.9 points allowed per game and 330.1 yards, 16th. Their foes convert third downs at the league’s most efficient mark, and the Raiders don’t excel particularly against either the run or the pass. Despite Maxx Crosby’s presence off the edge, they also lack a standout pass rush as well at 24th in sack percentage. There are few positives to report on, which is why the odds sit where they do.

Raiders vs. Texans pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans are -14.5 home favorites with -1450 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Raiders are listed at +850 to win outright with a game total of 37.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 96% of straight bets favor Houston while 70% are on the team to cover. On the total, 71% of the wagers favor the over.

It’s easy to see why so many bettors are going in these directions. That total is quite low, but I’m not entirely sure I trust the over given how inconsistent the Texans’ offense has been at times this season. However, they should win this game very comfortably. With the Raiders’ offensive line ranking among the NFL’s worst both in run blocking and pass protection, the battle in the trenches will prove very problematic for the visitors while the home team feasts. After struggling to keep the quarterback upright all year, Las Vegas’ offensive line will be food against this standout Houston unit and it won’t be shocking if Hunter and Anderson Jr. record multiple sacks each in this spot. Turnovers will likely come frequently for the Texans as well, especially with an excellent secondary facing Smith, who’s already mistake-prone and will have defenders in his face all day.

Taking Houston to cover makes some sense, but I’m just a smidge wary of how long that spread is in the home team’s favor. Rather than go that way, I’m instead heavily targeting a team total of under 10.5 points for the Raiders here. They’re hilariously outmatched when comparing the Las Vegas offense to the Texans’ defense, and it’ll show up on the scoreboard. There’s legitimate shutout potential here, so snag that under 10.5 line with glee.

Best bet: LV Raiders under 10.5 points (-115)