Two teams won on the road in the first round of the College Football Playoff, and now those teams, Alabama and Miami, face solidly favored opponents in the quarterfinals.

Ohio State is the biggest favorite of the quarterfinals with a 10-point spread on BetMGM against Miami. Indiana is a 7-point favorite against Alabama, which is a heck of a sentence to write. Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite against Ole Miss after beating the Rebels by eight in Athens earlier this season.

On the other side, the Texas Tech-Oregon matchup is incredibly close.

Last year’s quarterfinals saw the top four seeds that received byes all lose. While some of that was due to the top four seeds being conference champions, will we see the bye teams lose again, or will that narrative be a thing of the past?

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami

Miami survived a windy, low-scoring game at Texas A&M. The Hurricanes’ offense only managed 10 points, and Carson Beck passed for just 103 yards. While Miami won’t be playing in a wind tunnel because this game is at AT&T Stadium in Texas for the Cotton Bowl, the Hurricanes don’t get a break. Ohio State has the best defense in the country in terms of points allowed at 8.2 per game.

After Miami just played a 10-3 game, and considering OSU’s last showing was a 13-10 loss, it’s logical that this game has the lowest point total of the quarterfinals at 42.5. That low point total makes the 10-point spread even more jarring.

For the second year in a row, OSU enters the CFP coming off a 13-10 loss. The Buckeyes lost by that score to Michigan last year after missing two field goals of less than 40 yards. They went on to win the national title by destroying the field.

This year, OSU lost 13-10 to Indiana after missing a 27-yard field goal in the last three minutes. How will the Buckeyes respond this year?

The Buckeyes are still the national title favorite despite that loss to Indiana and are heavy favorites in this game.

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon

While three of the quarterfinals have clear favorites, this spread is razor-thin. Oregon is the only of the four first-round winners to be the favorite, although with odds this close, that could easily move.

The Ducks crushed James Madison early, although the Dukes earned a backdoor cover in garbage time. After losing in ugly fashion in a quarterfinal as the No. 1 seed last year, Oregon can at least say it won a playoff game this year. Now, how far can the Ducks go?

Texas Tech trails only Ohio State and Indiana in points allowed per game (10.9) and ran roughshod over the Big 12 this season, but how many offenses in the Big 12 are as talented as Oregon’s?

The College Football Playoff is full of narratives revolving around conference strength. Miami defended the ACC’s honor with a road win at an SEC team. Will Texas Tech rep the Big 12, or will Oregon show a gap between the Big Ten and the Big 12?

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama

Let’s start this one with some history. Indiana is favored by 7 points as of Sunday morning, and the spread was at 7.5 at one point on Saturday. It’s not often that Alabama gets that many points. It would be the most points given to Alabama in the two years since Kalen DeBoer took over for Nick Saban.

Saban, of course, was not a big underdog often. In fact, Alabama only faced a spread of more than 5 points seven times in Saban’s tenure, and two of those were in his first season in 2007. Of the five games that occurred after that first season, three came against Georgia (in 2008 on the road, in the 2021 SEC title game and the 2023 SEC title game). Alabama won all three of those matchups against the Bulldogs.

At 7 points, this is the biggest spread facing Alabama since the 2014-15 semifinal against Ohio State when the Buckeyes were favored by 7.5 points. The Buckeyes won that game by 7.

Tim Tebow’s Florida was a 10-point favorite against Alabama in the 2008 SEC title game and beat the Crimson Tide by 11.

Put another way, Alabama has been a 7-point (or more) underdog twice in 19 seasons.

Obviously, Saban isn’t coaching anymore, so it’s hard to put any relevance to these stats, but Indiana fans may feel a bit better that three of those five teams won national titles (Florida, Ohio State and 2021 Georgia).

The point is, 2025 Indiana is now in a rare category with blue-bloods of the sport, which is symbolic of this Hoosiers team under Curt Cignetti.

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

Another rematch?! This is the third rematch from the regular season of this playoff and the second for Ole Miss. That may be daunting for the Rebels because Ole Miss’ rematch with Tulane was eerily similar to the first meeting. Ole Miss beat the Green Wave 45-10 in the regular season and 41-10 in the playoff.

After Georgia won 43-35 in the regular season, will this score also be close to the first meeting? At least there will be a different venue. This game is the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.

After combining to score 78 points in the first meeting, it’s no surprise that the point total of 56.5 is the highest of the four quarterfinals. Georgia racked up 510 yards of total offense, and Gunner Stockton was 26-of-31 for 289 yards and four touchdowns.

For all of the questions about Ole Miss’ offense without Lane Kiffin, the defense will have to play a lot better than that to have a chance at flipping that result.