NFL playoff picture: Panthers take charge of NFC South, Bears in control of NFC North

Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks three games through the early Sunday games of Week 16. This week has already featured the Philadelphia Eagles clinching the NFC East for the second straight season, the elimination of the Dallas Cowboys from the postseason race, the Chicago Bears taking a big leap in the NFC North and Seattle assuming control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC from the Los Angeles Rams.

(* Clinched playoff spot)

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)*: Remaining schedule — at Carolina Panthers, at San Francisco 49ers

NFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario: The Seahawks are in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage in the NFC. Two victories to close out the season — at Panthers and at 49ers — will give them the NFC West crown, a first-round bye and home-field throughout the conference playoffs.

Notable odds: Seattle has a 50% chance of holding onto the No. 1 seed and a 54% probability of winning the NFC West, according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor. That’s how big Thursday night’s victory was for Sam Darnold and company.

2. Chicago Bears (11-4): Remaining schedule — at San Francisco 49ers, vs. Detroit Lions

Notable odds: The Bears are near locks for the postseason with 94% odds, according to NFL.com. Saturday night’s overtime win puts them in firm control of the NFC North, holding an 83% probability of winning the division. Entering Saturday, they had a 6% chance at the No. 1 overall seed, according to The Athletic. That rose to 12% after DJ Moore’s game-winning TD catch Saturday.

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Lions loss or tie vs. Steelers

3. Philadelphia Eagles* (10-5): Remaining schedule — at Buffalo Bills, vs. Washington Commanders

Notable odds: The Eagles, back-to-back champs of the NFC East, have a less than 1% shot at clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

4. Carolina Panthers (8-7): Remaining schedule — vs. Seattle Seahawks, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Notable odds: A big win over the Bucs moved Carolina into first place in the NFC South. The Panthers bumped up to 43% to win the division, according to The Athletic. They still have to play at Tampa Bay in the regular season finale.

5. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)*: Remaining schedule — at Atlanta Falcons, vs. Arizona Cardinals

Playoff-clinching scenarios: The Rams are already in the postseason field, however they’ll need some help to secure the NFC West crown and the conference’s No. 1 seed. L.A. needs, per RamsWire, to:

Beat Falcons and Cardinals

Have Seahawks lose to Panthers and beat 49ers

Have 49ers beat Colts and Bears, and lose to Seahawks

Have Bears lose to 49ers and NOT tie Lions

Notable odds: The Rams’ odds of clinching the No. 1 seed fell from 53% to 20% after Thursday night’s thrilling defeat in Seattle, per The Athletic.

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4): Remaining schedule — at Indianapolis Colts, vs. Chicago Bears, vs. Seattle Seahawks

Notable odds: Strong playoff favorites at 99%, per The Athletic. They also have 21% shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Tie vs. Colts AND Lions tie vs. Steelers

NFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario: The Niners are still in play for the division crown and the top seed in the conference. If they win out to close the regular season, the big prize belong to San Francisco. Victories vs. the Colts on Monday and vs. the Bears in Week 17 would would set up a titanic regular-season finale against the Seahawks if Seattle wins its next game. In that scenario, the winner of the Week 18 finale would walk away with the No. 1 seed and division title.

7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1): Remaining schedule — vs. Baltimore Ravens, at Minnesota Vikings

Notable odds: The Packers’ shot at the NFC North title dropped to 10%, according to The Athletic, after Saturday night’s overtime defeat in Chicago.

Still in the NFC picture

8. Detroit Lions (8-6): Remaining schedule — vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, at Minnesota Vikings, at Chicago Bears

Notable odds: Down to 22% to make the playoffs, per The Athletic. They still have a shot at the NFC North. Detroit would need to:

Go 3-0 the rest of the way (vs. Steelers, Vikings and Bears)

Have Bears lose to 49ers in Week 17

Have Packers lose one of their two remaining games (vs. Ravens and Vikings)

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8): Remaining schedule — at Miami Dolphins, vs. Carolina Panthers

Notable odds: While the loss to the Panthers drops Tampa Bay out of playoff position for the time being, the Bucs still have a 58% shot at winning the NFC South, per The Athletic. That’s because they face Carolina one more time and will hold the tiebreaker if they win that game.

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (12-2)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, at Kansas City Chiefs, vs. Los Angeles Chargers

AFC West-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Jaguars AND Chargers loss or tie vs. Cowboys

Tie vs. Jaguars AND Chargers loss vs. Cowboys

AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Jaguars AND Chargers loss or tie vs. Cowboys AND Bills loss or tie vs. Browns

Notable odds: The Broncos secured a postseason spot with a win over the Packers, and they are now the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC at 73% odds, according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor.

2. New England Patriots (11-3): Remaining schedule — at Baltimore Ravens, at New York Jets, vs. Miami Dolphins

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Victory or tie vs. Ravens

Colts loss or tie vs. 49ers

Texans loss or tie vs. Raiders

Notable odds: The Patriots squandered their chance to clinch the AFC East title with a loss to the Bills, but they still have at least 70% odds to win the division, per The Athletic. They’re a virtual lock to make the playoffs at 99%, according to NFL.com.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4): Remaining schedule — at Denver Broncos, at Indianapolis Colts, vs. Tennessee Titans

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Broncos AND Colts loss or tie vs. 49ers

Victory vs. Broncos AND Texans loss or tie vs. Raiders

Tie vs. Broncos AND Colts loss vs. 49ers

Tie vs. Broncos AND Colts tie vs. 49ers AND Texans loss vs. Raiders

Notable odds: The Jags maintained their lead in the AFC South, and are at least 60% likely to win the division, per The Athletic. Their overall playoff probability is 97%, according to NFL.com.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6): Remaining schedule — at Detroit Lions, at Cleveland Browns, vs. Baltimore Ravens

Notable odds: The Steelers still lead the AFC North, and their win over the Dolphins boosted their playoff probability to 60%, according to NFL.com.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4): Remaining schedule — vs. Houston Texas, at Denver Broncos

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Colts loss or tie vs. 49ers

Texans loss or tie vs. Raiders

Notable odds: The Chargers are on the cusp of clinching a playoff spot, but they are still very much a long shot to catch the Broncos for the division title (15%, per The Athletic).

6. Buffalo Bills (11-4): Remaining schedule — vs. Philadelphia Eagles, vs. New York Jets

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Colts loss or tie vs. 49ers

Texans loss or tie vs. Raiders

Notable odds: While Buffalo’s chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are still slim (28% according to The Athletic), the Bills are a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

7. Houston Texans (9-5): Remaining schedule — vs. Las Vegas Raiders, at Los Angeles Chargers, vs. Indianapolis Colts

Notable odds: The Texans’ odds to make the playoffs are 98%, per The Athletic.

Still in the AFC picture

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6): Remaining schedule — vs. San Francisco 49ers, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, at Houston Texans

Notable odds: The Colts have just an 8% shot at the playoffs, according to the Athletic, after a narrow loss to Seattle. There’s slightly more optimism from NFL.com’s model, giving Indianapolis a 16% shot at the postseason.

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7): Remaining schedule — vs. New England Patriots, at Green Bay Packers, at Pittsburgh Steelers

Notable odds: The Ravens’ playoff hopes effectively hinge on them winning the division. They have a 34% shot at taking the AFC North crown, according to The Athletic.

Already eliminated

AFC

Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)

NFC

New Orleans Saints (5-10)

Washington Commanders (4-10)

NFL playoff picture: Panthers take charge of NFC South, Bears in control of NFC North

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