The Philadelphia Eagles clinched back-to-back NFC East titles and their fifth straight postseason appearance with Saturday night’s win over the Washington Commanders.
But where the Eagles stand in the NFC playoff picture is still up in the air.
The No. 3 seed is the most likely outcome. The Eagles would have secured that if the Carolina Panthers lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, which they did not.
There’s also a reasonable path to the Eagles securing the No. 2 seed, an extremely unlikely path to getting the No. 1 seed and a doomsday scenario for the No. 4 seed.
At the very least, Philadelphia will have a top-four seed and host a home playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field, where the Eagles have not lost in the postseason since 2019.
Let’s take a look at all of the scenarios, courtesy of Wharton professor Deniz Selman.
No. 4 seed
The Eagles would have to drop two in a row to close the season with the Panthers winning their final two games (vs. Seattle Seahawks, at Tampa Bay).
Philly could certainly lose to the Buffalo Bills on the road in Week 17. But in Week 18, the Eagles host the Washington Commanders, who are every bit of 4-11.
It’s also unlikely that the Panthers would beat both the Seahawks and Bucs again.
No. 3 seed
This is as straightforward as it gets.
If the Eagles win at least one of their final two games — or if the Panthers lose to either the Seahawks or the Bucs — the Eagles will have at least the No. 3 wrapped up.
No. 2 seed
The math is simple yet difficult to rationalize. If the Eagles want to secure home games for at least the first and second rounds, they have to win out with the Chicago Bears losing out.
The Bears (11-4) visit the San Francisco 49ers before a home finale vs. the Detroit Lions. Both the 49ers and Lions are pushing for playoff contention and have explosive offenses. But the Bears have shown their resilience in recent weeks, so losing both is unlikely.
Entering Sunday’s slate of games, the Eagles had only a 16% chance of getting the No. 2 seed, according to The Athletic’s projection model.
No. 1 seed
OK, so this isn’t going to happen. The Athletic’s model gives the Eagles a less than 1% chance to snag the top seed. But props again to Selman for figuring out the path.
The Eagles need the following to all happen …
— 49ers lose to the Indianapolis Colts and Bears in Weeks 16 and 17
— Seahawks lose to the Panthers and 49ers in Weeks 17 and 18
— Rams lose to either the Falcons or Cardinals in Weeks 17 and 18
— Bears lose to the Lions in Week 18
Again, less than 1%. But it’s still technically possible.
At least for one more day until the 49ers face the Colts as favorites on “Monday Night Football.”