Imagn Images
The San Francisco 49ers have survived injuries and now have a legit shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC thanks to the Rams‘ loss on Thursday Night Football. It looked for a while like the Indianapolis Colts would contend for the top spot in the AFC, but injuries and a poor stretch of late has them fighting just to stay in playoff contention with the 44-year-old Philip Rivers now under center. Indianapolis aims to snap a four-game skid when it hosts the 49ers on Monday Night Football in Week 16.
This game features two of the best running backs the NFL has to offer with Christian McCaffrey leading the 49ers on offense while Jonathan Taylor has had a monster year for the Colts. Taylor leads the league in rushing yards and touchdowns while McCaffrey is 13th in rushing yards and has the sixth-most receptions in the NFL.
Both of these top running backs will be popular plays for NFL player props for Monday Night Football, but which of these two should you target for total carries and rushing yards props? The SportsLine Projection Model shares its top player prop recommendations after it simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and it has issued its picks for these two props for Taylor and McCaffrey for Monday Night Football this week. All odds and lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Visit SportsLine for a full game forecast for 49ers vs. Colts on Monday Night Football Week 16, as well as more NFL player prop recommendations and best bets.
Rushing yards propsChristian McCaffrey: 62.5 (Over -111, Under -113)Jonathan Taylor: 98.5 (Over -112, Under -112)
Top pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 62.5 rushing yards (3.5 stars)
McCaffrey has the third-most carries in the NFL this year but ranks just 13th in rushing yards as he is averaging 3.6 yards per carry. His inefficiency running the football coupled with the Colts entering Week 16 ranked sixth against the run this year (95.1 rushing yards per game) has the model leaning Under on this prop line with a projection of 50.8. McCaffrey has gone Under this line eight times in 2025.
Rushing attempts propsChristian McCaffrey: 17.5 (Over -125, Under -102)Jonathan Taylor: 23.5 (Over -106, Under -120)
Top pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 17.5 carries (4.5 stars)
McCaffrey does get a lot of total touches, as evidenced by him ranking sixth in the league in receptions, but the model expects a lighter workload for him on Monday, at least in terms of rushing attempts. The model pegs McCaffrey for 14.4 total carries, well Under his 17.5 prop line at DraftKings. McCaffrey has gone Under 17.5 carries seven times this season.Â