The second of three Christmas Day NFL games sends the Detroit Lions to the Land of Lakes for the holiday, facing the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17.
While Minnesota doesn’t have much to play for, Detroit is trying to keep its playoff hopes alive after fumbling away a home game in Week 16.
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My early Lions vs Vikings predictions and NFL picks break down the opening odds, early market moves, and more for Thursday, December 25.
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Lions vs Vikings predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Lions vs Vikings spread pick: Lions -6
The spread opened with the Detroit Lions as a 5.5-point road chalk, and early action has pushed this to the key number of six. It may not be done moving considering the status of the Minnesota Vikings‘ QB position.
Minnesota watched QB1 J.J. McCarthy leave Week 16’s win over the Giants with an injury to his throwing hand. While X-rays came back negative, McCarthy wasn’t able to grip a football and now has a short week to recover before playing Thursday.
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If he can’t go, backup Max Brosmer would get the start against Detroit. That would prompt not only an adjustment toward the Lions, but also action on the visitor.
As for Detroit, it has to rally after a bad showing versus Pittsburgh. The home loss to the Steelers put the Lions behind the eight ball, needing help from some other NFC contenders on the weekend to qualify. But as far a Thursday goes, they just need to worry about winning.
Early Lions vs Vikings total pick: Under 44.5
This total took a nosedive in the opening hours of action. Following the Lions’ loss, the number opened at 46.5 points and got bet down to 44.5, with one-sided play on the Under.
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It still sits on the happy side of the key number of 44 points, but any update on McCarthy’s status will push this total around.
The initial move is warranted, especially after watching the Vikings’ futility against the Giants. Even with McCarthy in, Minnesota struggled to move the chains, and this offense gets very conservative if Brosmer is at the wheel.
Minnesota also has injuries to starting center Ryan Kelly and running back Jordan Mason on this short week.
The Vikings defense can keep things competitive and has played very well in the second half of the schedule. Minnesota has been a Top 5 defense in EPA allowed per play during the team’s three-game winning streak and anchored a 27-24 win over Detroit back in Week 9.
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The Lions would be undertaking the bulk of the scoring, considering the issues with the Minnesota offense. Over bettors would be asking Detroit to score 34-plus points, which the Lions can do. But with a short week and travel on the holiday, I’m not running to bet the Over.
Lions vs Vikings odds
Lions vs. Vikings spread: Vikings +6
Lions vs. Vikings moneyline: Lions -275, Vikings +225
Lions vs. Vikings Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Lions vs Vikings
Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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