Lions’ playoff hopes fade after gut-wrenching loss vs. Steelers
USA TODAY Sports’ Prince Grimes ‘overreacts’ to some of the best games from Sunday’s Week 16 slate.
Seven weeks ago, the Indianapolis Colts held the No. 1 spot in the AFC. Now they’re in danger of missing the postseason entirely.
Indianapolis has gone 1-5 since starting the season 7-2, dropping them from the top seed in the conference to the outside of the playoff bubble. Injuries to quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, as well as to six different members of the defensive secondary, four offensive linemen and three receivers, have significantly impacted the team’s playoff outlook.
The Colts’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers on “Monday Night Football” has pushed Indianapolis to the brink of elimination. They have only one way to still make the playoffs after this season, and it involves getting some help – Indianapolis does not control its own destiny to secure a postseason spot.
It’s all going to come down to the final two weeks – and two AFC South clashes – for the Colts. Here’s how their playoff picture looks at the end of Week 16:
Colts playoff odds
Indianapolis has a 2% chance to make the playoffs after its loss to the 49ers on Dec. 22, according to Next Gen Stats.
The Colts had a 5% chance entering the “Monday Night Football” game and could have raised those chances to 11% with a win. Instead, they’re one loss – or Houston Texans win – away from elimination with two more weeks in the regular season.
Colts playoff scenarios
There is only one scenario in which the Colts can still make the playoffs:
Colts win vs. Jaguars Week 17 ANDColts win at Texans Week 18 ANDTexans lose at Chargers Week 17
Indianapolis can only hope to tie the Texans’ 10 wins in the final two weeks of the season. The good news for the Colts is that wins in the last two weeks – plus the Texans losing out – would also tie them with Houston in the following tiebreakers: head-to-head matchups, divisional record, record vs. common opponents and conference record.
In a scenario where both Houston and Indianapolis had 10 wins at the end of the season, the Colts would swipe the last playoff spot from Houston via the fifth tiebreaker in the NFL’s pecking order: strength of victory. The Colts would have wins over teams with a combined 67 (or 68, if Jacksonville wins Week 18) wins, while the Texans’ victories would have been against teams that combined to win 64 games.
If the Texans beat the Chargers on Saturday, Dec. 27, the Colts will be eliminated from the playoffs before they play their Week 17 game.
AFC South standings
The Colts are out of the AFC South division race after their loss on Dec. 22 – and the Jaguars’ Dec. 21 win – since they don’t have a way to match Jacksonville’s 11 wins with two games to play.
Here’s how the AFC South looks through 16 weeks:
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4, 3-1 AFC South)Houston Texans (10-5, 4-1)Indianapolis Colts (8-7, 2-2)Tennessee Titans (3-12, 0-5)
Indianapolis would be eliminated from the playoffs with a home loss to the Jaguars in Week 17, or if the Texans beat the Chargers on the road on Dec. 27.
Colts remaining schedule
The Colts’ final two games are among the most difficult stretches in the NFL to close the season. Their two upcoming opponents are the two teams ahead of them in the AFC South standings, and both have already won at least 10 games entering Week 17.
Tankathon has Indianapolis’ remaining schedule ranked third-hardest, with two more weeks to play. Here’s a look at the Colts’ homestretch:
Texans remaining schedule
Houston’s end-of-season schedule is also quite tricky. The Texans have to play an AFC team that is seeded ahead of them in the playoff picture, then close the season against a Colts team chasing them for the No. 7 seed in the AFC’s postseason race.
Tankathon ranks the Texans’ remaining schedule as the fifth-hardest in the NFL, just behind the Colts. Here’s who Houston still needs to play:
AFC playoff pictureDenver Broncos (12-3; AFC West leaders)*New England Patriots (12-3; AFC East leaders)*Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4; AFC South leaders)*Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6; AFC North leaders)Los Angeles Chargers (11-4; wild card No. 1)*Buffalo Bills (11-4; wild card No. 2)*Houston Texans (10-5; wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (8-7); Baltimore Ravens (7-8)
* Denotes team that has clinched a playoff berth.
Eliminated: Kansas City Chiefs (6-9); Miami Dolphins (6-9); Cincinnati Bengals (5-10); New York Jets (3-12); Cleveland Browns (3-12); Tennessee Titans (3-12); Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)