When the NFL schedule was released in April, the Week 17 Eagles-Bills game became a popular pick as a potential Super Bowl preview. That’s still a possibility, and both teams enter the NFL’s penultimate week among the top five in Super Bowl odds. Neither is locked into their playoff seed, although both teams have likely scenarios that takes some of the luster off the game. The Eagles sealed their division title with a win over Washington on Saturday, and the Patriots’ win over the Ravens put New England in prime position to win the AFC East over Buffalo.

Regardless, it’s still two contenders playing in frigid December conditions with winning streaks offering a tailwind and passionate fan bases envisioning a February in Santa Clara. We’ll have ample opportunity to discuss the game as the stakes become clearer after the holiday this week. Until then, let’s get to this week’s Eight Eagles Thoughts:

1. What we know about the Eagles’ playoff scenarios

At this time last week, Eagles were focused on clinching a postseason bid. Now, attention can shift to the seed and potential matchup. Here’s what you need to know:

The Eagles have an 88 percent chance of the No. 3 seed, according to The Athletic playoff simulator.
The Eagles have a 12 percent chance of the No. 2 seed.
The Eagles have less than a 1 percent chance of the No. 1 seed or No. 4 seed.

The simple path to the No. 2 seed is if Chicago loses its final two games and the Eagles win their final two games. The Bears play the 49ers and Lions, so that’s plausible. But the Eagles would also have to beat the Bills. There’s also a scenario that involves three other teams losing. (The Bears play Sunday night, so the No. 2 seed will still be a possibility when the Eagles kick off against the Bills.

The more likely scenario is the No. 3 seed. In that case, they would then host the No. 6 seed in the opening round. The 49ers have a 49 percent chance of the No. 6 seed after their 48-27 victory over the Colts Monday night (how appropriate), according to The Athletic playoff simulator. The Packers have a 9 percent chance. The Seahawks have a 23 percent chance. The Rams have an 18 percent chance. The Eagles beat the Rams and Packers this season. They have not played the 49ers or Seahawks. San Francisco is experienced and depleted with injuries on defense, but is dangerous on offense with Christian McCaffrey.

There are Eagles fans calling for the team to rest players in the final two weeks regardless of the circumstance. From my perspective, if the No. 2 seed is a reasonable possibility, it’s worth trying to secure that seed because of the guaranteed home playoff game if they reach the divisional round.

I understand the merit of resting and avoiding injuries (in 2023, the Eagles played the starters in the season finale and A.J. Brown sustained an injury that kept him out of the opening round of the playoffs), but that’s a more worthwhile question next week. The Eagles have a chance to test themselves against the Bills, try to win their 11th game and stay alive for the No. 2 seed, and they could still encounter a scenario in which they can rest their starters in the season finale, depending on Sunday’s results.

2. What to do with Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter?

Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter are nearing a return. I understand the argument for giving them two extra weeks to get healthy. But there’s also the idea of shaking off rust before the playoffs.

“Every guy’s a little different. Every scenario’s a little different,” coach Nick Sirianni said. “There’s a time where you, last year we had rested guys, but Dallas Goedert was just coming back in that last game against the Giants and he came back in, we got him some early touches and that was good for him. …So you do think about your past situations and when you’ve been through those things before, but you’re trying to do and trying to make the best decision for each guy.”

The Eagles are practicing on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday this week, so there might be a better sense of the health and the approach by the time they head to Buffalo. My view is Buffalo is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and there could be a benefit in the Eagles getting this type of test and then think about seed and matchup when they get home.

3. Penalties pose problem for tush push

For so long, the conversation about the tush push has been about whether teams can stop it. The way it’s being officiated this season might pose a bigger problem for the Eagles, to the point that there should be internal conversations about when and how to use the play. The Eagles were flagged for a false start at the goal line twice against the Commanders.

Sirianni should have confidence that Hurts and the offensive line could procure the cherished yard at a high enough percentage of attempts to justify sticking to the play, and there are enough variations and wrinkles to add to the staple play to make it worthwhile. But when flags are flying, that changes the calculus because losing five yards makes a considerable difference.

A short-yardage attempt becomes six yards. The Eagles have been flagged multiple times this season on short-yardage sneak situations, and even among players, there’s skepticism about how much longer the play will last because of officiating.

Teams this year have done a great job of stopping that play,” Jordan Mailata said. “We have to do a better job of executing and go from there.” I’m sure this play might not even be around next year, to be honest, just the way they’re officiating it, to be fair.

“Last week, it was, we can’t, our shoulders have to be parallel to the line of scrimmage now. Can’t be angled in. …They’re just officiating it a little bit harder. So if this is the last year we get to run it, we’ll run it until we can’t run it anymore.”

Sirianni said it’s incumbent upon the coaches to adjust to opponents, but that wasn’t the question posed to Sirianni. The counterpunch has always been part of the conversation. But officiating poses a bigger threat than a defense. If false starts are going to be flagged at a greater frequency, the risk must be considered as a factor.

“I think for sure that the penalties play into the thought process as well because you have to be perfect on that play,” Sirianni said. “We understand that and we got to be even a little bit better than what we’ve been there.”

On both penalties against Washington, the Eagles responded with a passing touchdown. This is another thing to consider. The Eagles’ passing game has been outstanding in the red zone. They are scoring touchdowns on a league-high 71 percent of their red zone drives, with 15 of 28 touchdowns coming through the air. They’ve been successful even without their trademark play. That’s something to think about when considering the tush push.

4. The controversial two-point conversion

A big topic in the post-game Commanders coverage was the Eagles’ decision to go for a two-point conversion late in the fourth quarter to make it a 19-point lead instead of 18. Sirianni’s logic was that a 19-point lead ensured that the Commanders could, at best, tie the game with two touchdowns, two two-point conversions, and one field goal and that the 19 points would help them more than an 18-point lead. The logic is sound. If you’re going to follow the chart, you should marry the data — not date the data. You only get the mathematical advantage if you adhere to it over a large enough sample size.

The nuance is that Sirianni chooses to deviate from the chart in other instances. And there’s a human element to consider when going for a two-point conversion with 4:26 remaining against a team that seemingly had thrown in the towel and that will visit in two weeks. The Commanders clearly took objection to it, and a brawl ensued.

Going for two doesn’t justify starting a fight, nor could that have been specifically predicted. But like any decision, there’s a cost-benefit analysis. Is the benefit of the 19-point lead worth the potential ramifications? (Of course, it’s not as if he ran a trick play in the final minute. We’re talking about a two-point conversion instead of an extra point. The Commanders could play defense on the play and live for the next down.)

I didn’t object to the two-point conversion because I like being aggressive when data supports it. But if Sirianni is going to be aggressive when up 18 points and four minutes in the fourth quarter against an overmatched opponent, it would behoove him to be aggressive with, say, 40 seconds remaining before halftime.

Nick Sirianni is tied with Paul Brown for the most career wins in his first five seasons, behind only George Seifert. (Amber Searls / Imagn Images)

5. Nick Sirianni in exclusive company

One can quibble with Sirianni’s two-point conversion or even his end-of-half approach, but his overall body of work five years into his Eagles tenure cannot be denied. As I wrote in the postgame column, the Eagles have now made the playoffs in all five seasons in the Sirianni era. They’ve reached double-digit wins four times. They’ve won the division three times. They’ve already made the Super Bowl twice. This five-year run to start a coaching career is one of the best in NFL history. 

Sirianni is tied with Paul Brown for the most career wins in his first five seasons, trailing only George Seifert. (Any data with volume of wins must account for the additional game/s during Sirianni’s coaching career, but judging by winning percentage, he is the best among active coaches and fifth-best in NFL history.)  Sirianni joins Bill Cowher and Chuck Knox as the only coaches in the Super Bowl era with five playoff appearances and three division titles in his first five seasons.

In the locker room after the game, veterans mentioned Sirianni without prompting when considering the success of this period. Yes, they have a talented roster. So do other teams falling short of the playoffs this year. Sirianni has pushed the Eagles into the playoffs every year he’s been in Philadelphia.

This doesn’t make Sirianni infallible, but I’ve seen his entire coaching tenure up close and also the context with which he’s sometimes discussed. He deserves to be considered among the best coaches in the NFL.

6. The interior line shines

This item was going to be devoted to Jordan Davis, who is playing like a Pro Bowler in Year 4 and was responsible for difference-making plays at the line of scrimmage. Then I typed “Jordan Davis” and “Eight Eagles Thoughts” in the search engine and realized I can’t keep saying Davis is ascending. He’s ascended, he’s one of the most important players on the team and he’s in line to be a big part of their future.

It occurred to me how I’ve similarly written often about Moro Ojomo’s breakout. I’ve mentioned how Byron Young has been a valuable contributor. I’ve noted how well Brandon Graham is rushing from the interior. And by the way, the best player on the defense might be Jalen Carter.

This is a way of pointing out the wealth of talent that the Eagles have at defensive tackle. When opposing offensive coordinators plan for the Eagles, that group should be the focal point. You can see why the Eagles let Milton Williams leave in free agency and traded Thomas Booker. They’re playing so well that fourth-round pick Ty Robinson barely has a role. (Considering Robinson was 24 when the Eagles drafted him, one can question if that was the best use of resources.

But talent is talent, and if they thought he could be a strong player, you shouldn’t pass on a talented defensive lineman because you have some.) Davis, Carter, Ojomo, and Byron Young are all under contract for next season, too. The Eagles will have extension considerations with the first three this offseason, and it’s hard to envision keeping all of them. But this is a clear strength of the roster and should factor into any postseason game.

7. Saquon Barkley in December

During a scrum by Saquon Barkley’s locker last month, when he was mired in a stalled production, I mentioned to Barkley that the data in his career shows his most productive months have been November and December and asked if there was something about running late in the year that supports those numbers.

“I did not know that,” Barkley said with an interested look on his face. “That gives me something to look forward to.”

The numbers were especially pronounced in December, and Barkley wasn’t surprised. “Real football happens later in the season,” Barkley said.

Perhaps it’s that time of the year, or it could simply be a coincidence, but the results this month have followed the trend. Barkley is second in the NFL in rushing yards this month with 332. He’s first in the NFL with rushes of 10-plus yards with nine. He’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He has his most rushing yards and most first downs in December this season despite playing one fewer game than all of the other months, and his success rate is nearly 9 percent higher than the rest of the season.

This only buttresses the career-high numbers. Barkley is averaging 88.2 yards per game in December his career — no other month is greater than 79.5 — and his 4.8 yards per carry are also his greatest. He has 67 rushes of 10-plus yards in December — 20 more than any other month. (He’s also played more games in December.) This supports the point that he’s harder to tackle this time of the year. Barkley said he trains to endure late in the season, but there’s also a school of thought that when the weather is colder and the season is later, the idea of tackling a big running back becomes less appealing. I thought about this when listening to Barkley’s comments about the way he ran against Washington, when teammates applauded his “angry runs.”

A mindset this game was run like I’m 230, 235 (pounds),” Barkley said. “That’s what my coach said. There’s times when I don’t. I’ve had games where I’ve rushed for 200 yards and been more like a scat back. God blessed me with that ability. I don’t get caught up in yards after contact because there’s things we can do in a run with setting our shoulders and placing ‘backers and having a good relationship with the O-line that can create holes.”

8. Eagles’ 2026 schedule 

A first-place finish in the NFC East also includes a first-place schedule in 2026. Three games that are dependent on the standings. The Eagles will host the first-place finisher from the NFC South and AFC North, and visit the first-place finisher from the NFC North.

If the season ended this week, that would mean the Eagles host the Panthers and the Steelers and visit Chicago. Those three are still up for grabs, although the Ravens’ loss on Sunday night made the Steelers the likely team in the AFC North. The Bucs and Packers can still disrupt the other two games.

If you’re looking for some diversity among opponents on the schedule, root for the Panthers. The Eagles have played the Bucs six times in the past five seasons. (Five of them have been in Tampa Bay, which wouldn’t be the case next year.) The Eagles have only played the Panthers twice during that period. You might as well root for the Bears, too. The Eagles and Packers have played four times in the past five years. They’ve only played the Bears twice during that period.

Then again, the Bears’ numbers might change in the postseason…

Here’s the full slate of opponents:

Home: Cowboys, Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, Rams, Texans, Colts, NFC South, AFC North

Away: Cowboys, Commanders, Giants, 49ers, Cardinals, Jaguars, Titans, NFC North