The Cal Golden Bears (7-5) and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (8-4) meet Wednesday in the Hawaii Bowl. Kickoff at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii, is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Cal vs. Hawaii odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Cal leads the all-time series 3-2. These teams last met in Sydney, Australia, in 2016, as Cal came away with a 51-31 victory. The last time these teams met in the islands was in 1993, a 42-18 victory in the regular season at the old Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. Hawaii’s only win in the islands came in 1935 in the New Year’s Classic, a 14-0 victory.
Cal fired coach Justin Wilcox, so former Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich will serve as the interim HC. Rolovich was Hawaii coach from 2016-19, going 28-27, while leading the team to a 2-1 postseason record. He was the Mountain West Coach of the Year in 2019, too.
The Cal offense starts with QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, a native of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, on the island of Oahu, just west of the capital. The freshman completed 63.6% of his passes for 3,117 yards, 17 TDs and 9 INTs, while running for 3 scores.
Cal RB Kendrick Raphael rolled for a team-best 853 yards and 12 TDs on the ground, averaging 4.0 yards per carry (YPC). WR Jacob De Jesus had 99 receptions, 892 yards and 5 TDs, jelling nicely with Sagapolutele, and WR Trond Grizzell was a nice secondary option with 690 yards, 1 TD and 14.7 yards per grab.
For Hawaii, the big news for coach Timmy Chang’s team is that leading WR Jackson Harris (49-963-12) has entered the transfer portal, and he will not stick around to play in the Hawaii Bowl. One of the guys who could help fill the void, WR Nick Cenacle, is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is questionable to go. WR Pofele Ashlock (62-704-6) is the best remaining receiver, and will be a big-time target for QB Micah Alejado.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
Cal vs. Hawaii odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Cal -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Hawaii -115 (bet $115 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Cal +1.5 (-115) | Hawaii -1.5 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Cal vs. Hawaii picks and predictionsPrediction
Cal 31, Hawaii 27
Backing CAL (-105) as short dogs, in what amounts to a road game, is the way to go.
The Golden Bears fought to a 38-35 win over the SMU Mustangs in the regular-season finale under Rolovich’s stewardship, winning outright as a 13.5-point underdog. It also topped the Louisville Cardinals 29-26 on the Nov. 8 as an 18.5-point dog. Cal won 4 games in 2025 outright as an underdog.
The good news for Cal is that Sagapolutele is not only playing in a bowl game, but he’ll be looking to put on a show for family and friends in his island homecoming.
And, for Hawaii, it hurts losing Harris to the transfer portal. Alejado can still sling it, and Ashlock is a big-time downfield threat, but Chang’s team won’t have all of the arrows in the quiver.
There is little reason to choose Cal +1.5 (-115) over backing it on the moneyline, although you’re absolutely convinced of a 1-point win for Hawaii. That’s the only way this bet makes sense.
PASS.
OVER 50.5 (-110) is a low number for the explosive offensive weapons we have in this game.
Alejado and Sagapolutele could put on an aerial show, and De Jesus and Ashlock are 2 of the more unheralded receivers in the nation. Raphael is a stud capable of housing it in the run game for Cal, too.
Cal hit the Over in 2 of the final 3 road games, and it went high at a 3-1-1 clip in the final 5 games.
Hawaii went low in the final 3 games, but the offense scored 27 or more points in 6 of the final 7 outings, while allowing at least 23 points in 5 of the final 8 games.
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