Who has the edge? Dolphins vs. Buccaneers, in Miami’s home finale

Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (6-9) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 17 game at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m., Fox):

When the Dolphins run: Miami running back De’Von Achane, fresh off his first Pro Bowl selection, needs to be fed the football. The Dolphins are 5-0 when he has more than 20 touches. You do the math on when he has 20 or fewer. The one win in those instances came when he had 92 rushing yards on seven carries against the Jets.

The only thing is, outside of the 48-yard touchdown run early in last Sunday’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the run game was largely stymied. Miami’s No. 13 rushing offense goes against the Buccaneers’ seventh-ranked run defense. When you face Tampa, you always have to worry about big, powerful nose tackle Vita Vea, so center Aaron Brewer and the two guards will have their hands full, possibly limiting how much Brewer can run-block with his athletic range if he’s consumed on the interior. Veteran linebacker Lavonte David, a Miami Northwestern High grad playing back home Sunday, leads the Bucs with 105 tackles. Edge: Even

When the Buccaneers run: In four games back from an injured reserve stint, Tampa running back Bucky Irving has averaged under 4 yards per carry in each outing. Irving gets fed plenty, and his home run abilities must be kept in check. Rachaad White is a bigger back and an efficient change of pace with his opportunities. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is also a threat to scramble.

The Dolphins run defense has been up and down and, after a really rough start, ranks 26th in the NFL. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks, who was snubbed from the Pro Bowl despite leading the league in tackles (169), may come out on fire in this one. Veteran defensive tackle Zach Sieler and the three rookies on the line have come along of late. The Bucs offensive line has strong tackles in Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke and center Graham Barton was a first-round pick in 2024. Guard Michael Jordan — no, not that one — has racked up seven starts as a replacement. Edge: Even

When the Dolphins pass: All eyes will be on rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers in his second start. It didn’t look like the moment was too big for him in his debut as a starter, starting off 10 of 12 in the first half. The team unraveled a bit in the second half as one unfortunate event snowballed into the next. Ewers threw two interceptions. One seemed to be on undrafted rookie Theo Wease, as he didn’t attack the ball, allowing a defensive back to deflect it against him.

Ewers will look to build greater chemistry with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who had five catches on nine targets for 72 yards against the Bengals. He can also utilize the size of tight end Darren Waller. The Buccaneers rank 27th in pass defense. Waddle and Waller may find matchups against safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and cornerback Jamel Dean, both whom Ewers must be mindful of. Those two have combined for five interceptions this season.

Vea is a strong interior pass-rusher, along with his run-stuffing prowess, and David can bring the pressure on the blitz, which coach Todd Bowles may try to do against the rookie passer. Outside linebacker YaYa Diaby leads the Bucs with six sacks, and Haason Reddick is a seasoned edge rusher. Both left tackle Patrick Paul, who now protects the blind side of the right-handed throwing quarterback, and right tackle Austin Jackson will have their hands full. Edge: Buccaneers

When the Buccaneers pass: Quarterback Baker Mayfield is completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 3,144 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s got the arm talent and mobility to extend plays that make him a difficult matchup whenever he’s on the other side.

He’s done it this season with veterans Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both missing time in the receiving corps, but the Buccaneers did well by him in drafting superb rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, who has 910 yards and six touchdowns this season. The Dolphins secondary has to see him and Evans a week after getting torched by Joe Burrow throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Tampa has also gotten fine production from tight end Cade Otton, so it’ll be tough as safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is expected to miss another game with his calf injury.

Sieler has 4 1/2 sacks in his past three games, while outside linebacker Chop Robinson has three sacks in his past four games. So some of the pass rush around Bradley Chubb’s team-leading 6 1/2 sacks is heating up. The Bucs, of course, are always strong with Wirfs anchoring the pass protection. Edge: Buccaneers

Special teams: Miami’s special teams hasn’t been as hot as it was earlier in the year, but punter Jake Bailey has a considerable edge in net punting against the Buccaneers’ Riley Dixon, 42.8-38.6. Kicker Chase McLaughlin has missed four field goals this season, compared to Dolphins’ Riley Patterson with just two, but McLaughlin is a whopping 11 for 11 on kicks of 50-plus yards. Miami gets more in the return game, too. Edge: Dolphins

Intangibles: Tampa Bay still has something to play for, as it is in play for an NFC South crown with two games remaining. Could this be the game that gets the Bucs on track after losing six of seven? If the Dolphins’ first game since elimination was any indication, they’re not looking very good with nothing to play for. Edge: Buccaneers

PREDICTION: Buccaneers 24, Dolphins 20

Dolphins Deep Dive: Prediction time — Will Ewers, Miami defeat Bucs? | VIDEO

Who has the edge? Dolphins vs. Buccaneers, in Miami’s home finale

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