The Jaguars snap the Broncos‘ streak: A hotly contested 34-20 win against the Broncos pushes the Jaguars into the race for the top seed in the AFC.
The end of the road for the Lions and Ravens: Detroit and Baltimore suffered likely season-ending losses in Week 16.
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Estimated Reading Time: 27 minutes
The power rankings below provide clear tiers on each NFL team’s market assessment, offering a comprehensive view of team standings and future prospects. All of the information below and more can be found in PFF’s power rankings tool, which is available with a PFF+ subscription.
It’s important to note that these rankings consider more than just win-loss records and playoff seeding. Factors like player and team-level grades, offensive and defensive efficiency, prior performance from past seasons, and strength of schedule all play a role. This is why teams with worse records and slimmer playoff hopes may rank higher than those with better records who have managed wins against weaker opponents or delivered inconsistent performances from key players.
Click here to jump to a team:
ARZ | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS
1. Los Angeles Rams (No change)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 15%
The Rams joined some illustrious, but unfortunate, company after their Week 16 game of the year candidate loss to the Seahawks. Los Angeles became the first team ever to generate 500 yards of offense, not commit a turnover, force three turnovers and still lose. There were some hijinks with the fourth-quarter two-point conversion — which was initially ruled dead before being awarded — and that’ll sting. Still, the Rams uncharacteristically gave up a 16-point lead before succumbing to the Seahawks in overtime.
That loss now gives the Seahawks the edge in the NFC West, with the Rams’ chances of winning the division falling to 20%. The likelihood is the Rams finish with 13 wins and are on the road in the playoffs — that doesn’t feel right.
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 11%
The Bills were dragged into the mud by an excellent Browns’ defense, but ground out a win thanks to an excellent rushing performance from James Cook (82.5 grade; 6th). Cook carried the ball 16 times for 117 yards and two touchdowns, ripping off three runs of 10 yards or more while Josh Allen (88.7 grade; 3rd) and the passing game struggled.
Allen was pressured on 43.5% of his dropbacks, but credit still needs to be given for grinding out a win against a tough defense on the road. But, the Bills haven’t been all that convincing recently.
3. Green Bay Packers (Down 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 96%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 6%
There aren’t many teams in professional sports who have had a worse two-week stretch than the Packers, losing Micah Parsons (92.0 grade; 2nd) to a torn ACL before Jordan Love (88.5 grade; 5th) suffered a concussion in their 22-16 loss to the Bears in Week 16. The Packers are now 9-5-1 and were sweating before a Lions loss to the Steelers essentially sealed their postseason spot.
Losing Love for a game and resting him for the playoffs might not be the worst decision. The Green Bay offense ticked along nicely with backup Malik Willis, who earned a 65.4 overall PFF grade.
4. Seattle Seahawks (No change)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 10%
At times, the Seahawks were ugly and ineffective on offense in Week 16. But they turned it on in the fourth quarter, recovering from a 16-point deficit to beat the Rams in overtime and take control of the NFC West.
The Seahawks are now 12-3 and have a 45% of winning the division ahead of their final two games of the season — road showdowns against the Panthers and the 49ers. A win against the Panthers in Week 17 and a loss by both the Rams and 49ers would seal the Seahawks’ first division title since 2020.
Chance of making playoffs: 97%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 8%
Heading into Week 16, the Texans had won six consecutive games and were expected to walk over the Las Vegas Raiders at home. They were one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Instead, the Texans played down to their opponent and snuck away with a 23-21 win, moving to 10-5 on the season.
In terms of a win streak, Houston remains hot, but the offense’s struggles hark back to a time of midseason discomfort for the Texans. The difference this time is that they ground out a win. Houston now owns the longest active winning streak in the NFL at six games.
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 12%
The Broncos’ excellent 11-game win streak came to a crashing halt in Week 16 with a 34-20 loss to the Jaguars. The offense churned up over 440 yards of offense, but the defense — which ranks seventh in EPA per play — was pushed around by Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ passing game in ways we haven’t seen much of in 2025.
This was the Broncos getting punched in the mouth, and the loss opens the door for the Chargers to make a late run for the AFC West title. Everything could come down to the Week 18 matchup in Denver.
7. San Francisco 49ers (Up 2)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 7%
The 49ers are kicking into gear on offense at just the right time. Over the last two weeks, they’re second in EPA per play and fourth in success rate, while Brock Purdy (87.4 grade; 6th) has thrown for 590 yards, eight touchdowns and an interception, earning a 96.3 overall PFF grade.
Purdy is looking sharper and more like himself under center as the weeks progress, and the 49ers are now 11-4 and the fifth seed in the NFC after the 48-27 win against the Colts in Week 16. There’ll be concerns about the defense and how that unit fares against better offenses, but the 49ers will be a tough test for anyone in the postseason.
8. Detroit Lions (Down 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 4%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: <1%
The Lions’ loss to the Steelers in Week 16 isn’t without controversy, with a Jared Goff (78.5 grade; 12th) fumble recovery touchdown negated due to an offensive pass interference call. It’s a tough way to end a contest, but the long and short of it is the Lions had the opportunity to keep their season alive with a win — but couldn’t get it done.
The defense, which has fallen off a cliff, allowed 8.5 yards per rush and 230 rushing yards to a Steelers offense that hasn’t always looked like the most explosive unit. The Lions are now 8-7, and their race is run. It’s back to the drawing board this offseason.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (Up 2)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 6%
Though he won’t win the MVP award, there might not be one player more important to his team’s success in 2025 than Justin Herbert (83.2 grade; 8th) is to the Chargers. Herbert hasn’t played his best football in recent weeks, but he’s been behind an offensive line that allows more pressure than any other in the league — while routinely making spectacular throws.
The pieces came together in the 34-17 win against the Cowboys in Week 16. Herbert completed 23-of-29 pass attempts for 300 yards and two touchdowns, adding 42 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. That culminated in an 88.1 overall PFF grade.
The win lifts the Chargers to 11-4 and gives them an outside shot of winning the AFC West. If they beat the Texans in Week 17, the division will be on the line against the Broncos in Week 18.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (No change)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 5%
If the Eagles could take the fourth quarter of their 29-18 win against the Commanders in Week 16 and extrapolate it across an entire game, they’d be absolutely fine, and there’d be no concern. But those prior three quarters feel just as indicative of this team. Their young cornerback duo of Quinyon Mitchell (77.2 grade; 6th) and Cooper DeJean (77.2 grade; 6th) continues to impress, and the concerted effort to target receiver A.J. Brown (81.2 grade; 14th) helped move the chains, but something just isn’t clicking.
11. Baltimore Ravens (Down 3)
Chance of making playoffs: 6%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: <1%
Even without Lamar Jackson (70.0 grade; 26th), who was ruled out with a back injury for the second half of their Week 16 loss against the Patriots, the Ravens were still in range to snatch a late victory. Instead, individual mistakes — which have often been the downfall of the offense in 2025 — reared their ugly head again in the form of a Zay Flowers (76.9 grade; 25th) fumble.
Jackson looked closer to his best, and backup Tyler Huntley was effective enough off the bench, while the Ravens leaned into giving Derrick Henry (72.7 grade; 27th) the ball. In the end, it wasn’t enough, and the Ravens let an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter slip. Pair that with the Steelers’ win against the Lions, and the Ravens are almost all but certainly out of the playoffs.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (No change)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 6%
Is it time to say that the Jaguars are for real? In a wide-open AFC, why wouldn’t they be?
The Jaguars had won five straight games heading into their Week 16 matchup against the Broncos, and the Denver defense would provide a real barometer for the Jaguars’ success. They passed the test in a 34-20 win. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (81.5 grade; 9th) has played the best football of his career in recent weeks and looked like a game-changer under center again, completing 23-of-36 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns, adding another score on the ground. Lawrence secured an 81.8 overall PFF grade in the win, and since Week 11, his 90.7 grade is third among quarterbacks.
It’s an outside shot, but the Jaguars could still finish with the top seed in the AFC. Right now, though, wrapping up the AFC South is the main goal.
13. New England Patriots (Up 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 7%
The Patriots pulled back from an 11-point hole in the fourth quarter to overcome the Ravens 28-24 in Week 16, keeping their grip on the AFC East and becoming the second team in the AFC to clinch a playoff spot. There’ll be concerns about the run defense, which is now 21st in success rate and EPA per play with Henry rushing for 128 yards.
But, the main takeaway from the game should be what Drake Maye (86.6 grade; 7th) was able to do in the comeback. Maye completed 31-of-44 pass attempts for 380 yards and two touchdowns and an interception, compiling a 69.9 overall PFF grade.
The race for MVP is likely coming down to Maye, Allen and Stafford. Could Maye win it in his second season?
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 4%
The Bears pulled off a 22-16 victory against the Packers in Week 16, with Caleb Williams (75.7 grade; 16th) making one of the best throws of the season. Williams uncorked a 46-yard touchdown bomb to D.J. Moore (67.9 grade; 56th) to walk the game off and get the Bears one step closer to their first NFC North crown since 2018.
The win, as well as results around the league, clinched a playoff spot for the Bears — who have now won seven of their last eight contests. Ben Johnson has turned this team into a certified force in his first season in charge, and Williams is playing the best football of his short career. Things are pointing firmly up in Chicago.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (No change)
Chance of making playoffs: 94%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 3%
The Steelers delivered their biggest win of the season in Week 16, defeating the Lions 29-24 on the road to effectively seal the AFC North title — thanks in part to a Ravens loss on Sunday Night Football. The ground game was exceptional, with the pairing of Jaylen Warren (79.5 grade; 13th) and Kenneth Gainwell (76.3 grade; 20th) combining for 193 rushing yards. Also, Aaron Rodgers (69.2 grade; 29th) had another efficient game, registering an 81.0 overall PFF grade while throwing for 266 yards and a touchdown.
If the Steelers can continue to run the ball with similar efficiency, they could cause some issues in an AFC that proves to be anyone’s for the taking.
16. Cincinnati Bengals (Up 3)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The Bengals’ 45-21 win against the Dolphins served as a reminder to Joe Burrow (90.7 grade; 2nd) that football can still be fun. The sea hasn’t been smooth sailing for Burrow and the Bengals in recent weeks, and they entered Week 16 with nothing to play for, but that didn’t stop Burrow and the offense from putting on a show. Burrow completed 25-of-32 passes for 309 yards and four touchdowns, notching an 88.1 overall PFF grade in the win.
It’s been talked about countlessly in recent weeks, but the 2026 offseason is going to be the most important in recent Bengals history. Reports around the NFL are that the Bengals plan on keeping Zac Taylor on as the team’s head coach. If that’s the case, he has to get it right. There’s too much talent on this offense to be missing the playoffs in three straight seasons.
17. Minnesota Vikings (Down 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
A hand injury to J.J. McCarthy (61.6 grade; 36th) forced the second-year starter out of the game just before halftime, with rookie Max Brosmer taking his place. Whether McCarthy or Brosmer, the results were the same: The Vikings’ offense just doesn’t have it right now. Getting Justin Jefferson (78.1 grade; 22nd) more involved is a surefire way to find more success — Jefferson caught six of eight targets for 85 yards, his best output in yards since Week 5 — but the offense still lacks that punch.
A 16-13 victory against the Giants showcased the Vikings’ aggressiveness on defense, but this offseason will be important for the development of McCarthy — who posted a 45.7 overall PFF grade on Sunday.
18. Dallas Cowboys (Down 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The usually exceptional Cowboys offense started well against the Chargers in Week 16, but a scoreless second half and a labored performance from the defense saw the Cowboys fall to 6-8-1 on the season in a 34-17 losing effort. Dak Prescott (88.6 grade; 4th) still moved the ball well, completing 21-of-30 pass attempts for 244 yards and two touchdowns on an 83.3 overall PFF grade.
The season is ending poorly for Dallas, but there’s a lot to be optimistic about. If the Cowboys can add some more defensive talent, retain receiver George Pickens (87.0 grade; 6th) and continue to improve, they could be back to competing in 2026.
19. Indianapolis Colts (Down 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 3%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: <1%
Even though the Colts aren’t winning and are on the brink of elimination from playoff contention, there’s joy in watching veteran Philip Rivers bark at the line of scrimmage, setting protections and calling audibles. Rivers has exceeded expectations in his two games under center, even if the Colts are 0-2 in that time. On Monday night, he completed 23-of-35 passes for 277 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, compiling a 49.6 overall PFF grade.
The Colts are now 8-7, and their playoff odds sit at just 3%. There’s no solace that Colts fans can take right now, especially after a 7-1 start to the season. But enjoy Rivers under center while you can.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No change)
Chance of making playoffs: 52%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 1%
Ever since the Buccaneers’ Week 7 loss to the Lions, they’ve fallen off a cliff. They were 5-1 after six weeks, but have lost seven of their last nine games and are now 7-8 after faltering in a potential division-clinching game against the Panthers in Week 16. Baker Mayfield’s (71.1 grade; 25th) performances for the last two months have been concerning, even as the offense has gotten healthy, while the defense is 18th in EPA per play since Week 7.
The Buccaneers still have a 52% chance of winning the NFC South, but it’s hard to believe in a team that has delivered so little in recent weeks. If they miss the playoffs, significant changes could be on the way in the offseason.
21. Atlanta Falcons (Up 2)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The list of players in the NFL better than Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (83.3 grade; 6th) is a short one. Robinson carried the Falcons to a 26-19 win against the Cardinals in Week 16, compiling a 64.1 overall PFF grade while totalling 168 yards from scrimmage. Robinson is a true force multiplier out of the backfield, and regardless of whoever is starting at quarterback for the Falcons in 2026, the offense should run through Robinson.
22. Carolina Panthers (Up 4)
Chance of making playoffs: 48%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: <1%
How about the Carolina Panthers? Bryce Young (71.2 grade; 24th) and the Panthers took control of the NFC South in Week 16 with a 23-20 win against the Buccaneers at home. Young continues to play great football and earned a 91.6 overall PFF grade, completing 21-of-32 passes for 191 yards, two touchdowns and four big-time throws.
Young is at his best when he’s airing the ball out. He and rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan (79.2 grade; 19th), who caught six passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, took advantage of a down-on-its-luck defense. If the Panthers beat the Buccaneers in Week 18, they’ll make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
23. Washington Commanders (Up 2)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The Commanders played the Eagles tough. The defense, which is 32nd in EPA per play, held strong for three quarters before succumbing to the reigning Super Bowl champions in Week 16. The offense lost Marcus Mariota (71.4 grade; 23rd) to an injury to his right hand, with journeyman Josh Johnson stepping in late.
Retooling the defense is the goal for the Commanders in 2026. There are a few good young players on that side of the ball — including cornerback Mike Sainristil (54.7 grade; 83rd), who recorded a 63.7 overall PFF grade against the Eagles. The Commanders are an old team, and injecting some youth into the organization to help build around Jayden Daniels (74.9 grade; 18th) will go a long way.
24. Miami Dolphins (Down 2)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The Dolphins kick-started their post-Tua Tagovailoa era with a painful drubbing against the Cincinnati Bengals and one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Though this loss was more about what the Bengals’ offense was able to do against the Dolphins, as opposed to what rookie Quinn Ewers and the Dolphins failed to accomplish.
The Dolphins are going to be active in the quarterback market this offseason, with it likely that head coach Mike McDaniel stays while Tagovailoa departs. We’ve seen what a functioning McDaniel offense can look like, but can the Dolphins get the right quarterback?
25. Arizona Cardinals (Down 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
It’s been clear that the Cardinals are heading toward another transitional phase for a while now, and that’s always a strange time on the outside looking in. The Cardinals could enter 2026 with a new front office, head coach and starting quarterback, or any combination of the three.
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett (69.6 grade; 28th) has helped keep the offense afloat in 2025, and maybe he deserves another year under center if Kyler Murray (72.1 grade; 20th) has one foot out the door — or if the Cardinals have a lack of conviction about a quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The real bad news for the Cardinals: They lost promising rookie defender Walter Nolen (74.1 grade) to a knee injury. Nolen has 15 pressures in six games and 10 pressures in his last two showings. That’s a huge wound for the Cardinals.
26. Kansas City Chiefs (Down 5)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
Though there’s nothing left to play for in 2025, things got a little bit worse for the Chiefs in Week 16, as backup QB Gardner Minshew injured his knee just a week after QB Patrick Mahomes (76.0 grade; 15th) tore his ACL. That’s just unthinkable bad luck for the Chiefs. On the field, Minshew was replaced by Chris Oladokun, who struggled against a Titans’ defense playing for pride. The Chiefs lost 26-9 in a nothing game, but maybe it served as a reminder of just how much Mahomes has been holding this team up.
27. New Orleans Saints (Up 2)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
Another game, another strong passing performance from Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough (75.3 grade; 17th). The second-round pick completed 32-of-49 pass attempts for 308 yards and a touchdown pass, posting a 60.4 overall PFF grade in the 29-6 win against the Jets.
Every victory and good performance help strengthen Shough’s case to be the starter in 2026, as does his connection with receiver Chris Olave (75.6 grade; 29th) — who caught 10 of 16 targets for a career-high 148 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Load up, grab another receiver and let Shough go to work in 2026.
28. New York Giants (Down 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The Giants played some of the most situational football you’ll ever see in Week 16, doing whatever they could to protect rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart (66.6 grade; 32nd) from Brian Flores’ defense. Dart attempted just 13 passes, and the Giants carried the ball 30 times, with Dart yielding just two attempts. It was a concerted effort that almost worked, but the Vikings’ defense is one of the better units in the NFL.
If the Giants end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft — if the season ended today, they would — there’s a small matter of how they’d go about their business. Dart has shown enough to get an extended run, but is the lure of taking Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza too much to pass up? We might just find out.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (Up 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The Raiders weren’t given a snowflake in hell’s chance of beating the Texans in Week 16, but they did all they could to make it a close game — eventually losing 23-21. The offense delivered a strong performance against arguably the best defense in the NFL, relying on some explosive plays from rookie running back Ashton Jeanty (72.0 grade; 29th) — who had a career-high 188 scrimmage yards on an 81.7 overall PFF grade.
That’s better from the Raiders, though the pre-game reports were that head coach Pete Carroll could be in jeopardy after just one season.
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The Browns, led by their defense, did well to keep within grasp of the Bills in Week 16 — especially with both teams at opposite ends of the NFL standings. Cleveland can bring any team into a mud fight because of the ability of its defense. At the same time, credit should also go to an offense that managed to pull itself back into the game even when running back Quinshon Judkins (66.6 grade; 46th) suffered a season-ending leg injury.
That’s the main takeaway from this game, sadly. Judkins was excellent in his rookie season, and let’s hope he can return to the field healthy and raring to go ahead of the 2026 season.
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
For most of the 2025 season, two or three times a game, Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward (59.8 grade; 37th) will make a throw that just utterly astounds. But in recent weeks, those passes are becoming more frequent as the 2025 No. 1 overall selection is starting to find his NFL wings. Ward earned an 89.9 overall PFF grade in the Week 16 win against the Chiefs, completing 21-of-28 passes for 228 yards, two touchdowns and three big-time throws.
Ward is a special thrower, and since Week 11, his nine big-time throws are the ninth-most in the NFL. With better surroundings and a new coaching staff, Ward could be in a great position to succeed in 2026.
32. New York Jets (Down 1)
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 0%
The Jets are in “hard to watch” territory now. They’ve lost three straight games and are struggling with rookie quarterback Brady Cook under center. Cook assembled a 28.5 overall PFF grade against the Saints in the 29-6 Week 16 loss, and there aren’t many franchises that await season’s end more than the Jets.
A positive spin, though: The Jets‘ offensive line could be an excellent unit in 2026. Rookie tackle Armand Membou (71.6 grade; 30th) has been a delight in 2025, and second-year tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu (70.0 grade; 36th) is developing nicely, too. With the tackle spots secure for the next half a decade, the Jets are in a position to finally find their franchise quarterback.