With two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, the playoff picture is taking form, but the seeding within each conference is nowhere close to settled. Seven of the eight divisions are still up for grabs, and neither the AFC nor the NFC boasts a team with at least a 60 percent chance to earn the No. 1 seed. What’s more, assuming there are no ties this week, no team can clinch the top spot and secure the first-round bye, which means both conferences’ top seeds will likely come down to how Week 18 unfolds.

However, there is plenty at stake this week. As always, we will use The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by my NFL Projection Model, to see which post-Christmas Week 17 games have the biggest impact on the postseason picture. There are five games that I’ve chosen to highlight, with the drama really getting underway on Saturday.

The Houston Texans weren’t among the trio of teams that clinched playoff berths with the Indianapolis Colts’ loss on Monday Night Football, but they’ve just about locked up a spot. A win or tie this week secures their spot this week, as does a Colts loss or tie. The AFC South title is still within Houston’s reach, and a win will keep it in the hunt for Week 18, regardless of what the Jacksonville Jaguars do. However, a loss paired with a Jaguars win or tie would eliminate them from division contention. A win and a Jaguars loss would be ideal, as the Texans would then have an 84 percent chance to win the AFC South for a third straight season.

I’m not sure how the Los Angeles Chargers are alive for the AFC West with all of the offensive line injuries they’ve endured this season, but with two weeks to go, they have a real shot. With a playoff berth already clinched, that’s the only drama remaining for them. They cannot clinch the division this week, but they can be eliminated with a loss after the Denver Broncos’ win on Thursday night. But a Chargers win guarantees that the AFC West will be decided in Denver during Week 18 with a winner-take-all matchup. Also, Chargers fans should root against the New England Patriots, as the Chargers would still be alive for the AFC No. 1 seed with a win over the Texans.

It’s pretty simple for the Ravens this week. They have to win — a tie knocks them out of the AFC North race — and the Pittsburgh Steelers must lose to the Cleveland Browns. You read that right. It does not matter if the Ravens beat the Green Bay Packers if the Steelers beat the Browns. A Steelers win on Sunday will clinch the AFC North. If the Browns come through for the Ravens on Sunday, however, that would make for a Week 18 winner-take-all matchup between the Ravens and Steelers in Pittsburgh.

The Packers seemed primed to win the NFC North, but a disastrous fourth quarter and overtime last Saturday against the Chicago Bears has Green Bay with some work to do to win the division. They already clinched a playoff spot with the Lions’ loss on Thursday, but to win the NFC North title, well, a loss knocks them out of contention, as does a Bears win, as does a Packers tie and a Bears tie.

However, a Packers win and a Bears loss would mean that Week 18 will decide the division, with the Packers needing a win and another Bears loss. Please note, however, that these odds could swing quite a bit depending on the health of quarterback Jordan Love over the next two weeks.

Playoff hopes for the Colts are on life support after their loss to the 49ers on Monday. In fact, they are at just 1 percent to make the dance heading into Week 17. Now, they need to win out and have the Texans lose out. I mentioned it above for the Texans’ clinching scenarios, but the Colts will be eliminated with a loss or tie or a Texans win or tie.

The Jaguars might be the hottest team in football, and they’ll look to continue that momentum by clinching the AFC South this weekend. A Jaguars win over the Colts isn’t enough to clinch on its own, but if it’s paired with a Texans loss or tie, that would get the job done. They can also clinch the division with a tie and a Texans loss. They’re still alive for the AFC’s top seed, as well, but a loss this weekend would eliminate them.

Not only was the Seattle Seahawks’ comeback win against the Los Angeles Rams last week thrilling from an entertainment standpoint, but the stakes couldn’t have been much higher, as Seattle is now in the driver’s seat to win both the NFC West and the NFC title. The Seahawks actually have a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed this weekend with a win and a Rams loss or a tie and a 49ers-Bears tie. That’s highly unlikely, so we can focus on the NFC West title, which is much more achievable. The Seahawks clinch the NFC West with a win plus a Rams loss or tie, in addition to a 49ers loss or tie. Those scenarios are still unlikely, so the focus should simply be on winning, which would boost their division odds from 50 percent to 61 percent.

The Carolina Panthers’ path to the playoffs is simple. A win, paired with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss or tie, clinches the NFC South for Carolina. The same goes for a Panthers tie paired with a Bucs loss. If neither of those results holds, the division comes down to a winner-take-all battle during Week 18 in Tampa. Right now, my model has the Panthers at 45 percent to win the division. A win boosts that number to 58 percent, but a Bucs win sinks those odds to 36 percent. The Panthers will be an underdog in Tampa Bay as it stands today.

After beating Green Bay last week, the path for the Bears is simple. Win this weekend or watch the Packers lose on Saturday, and they are NFC North champions. Chicago is currently 88 percent to win the division, and a loss only drops it to 80 percent. There is no reason to panic going into Week 18, even if that is second nature to Bears’ fans at this point. As I mentioned with the Packers, a lot depends on the health of Jordan Love. However, it’s not just the division on the line this week; the Bears are still alive for the top seed. A win will boost their odds to 35 percent to clinch the first-round bye, whereas a loss would eliminate them.

The 49ers have everything in front of them. They control their path to winning the NFC West as well as the No. 1 seed. A win over the Bears increases their division odds to 46 percent, setting up a win-and-clinch scenario against Seattle in Week 18. While that should be the main focus, winning at least one game should help their seeding, as right now, they have a 12 percent chance to be the No. 5 seed but also an 9 percent chance to be the No. 7 seed.