Game of the week
Chicago Bears (11-4) v San Francisco 49ers (11-4)
A throwdown for the NFC’s No 1 seed is the decorative iced penguin on a colossal Week 17 Christmas cake that started with Detroit flaming out on the big day, snowballs from there with a playoff preview between the Texans and Chargers on Saturday, and finishes with Bears v 49ers (discounting Monday’s morsel of Rams v Falcons).
The race for the holy bye week has Chicago and San Francisco one game back from 12-3 Seattle, meaning the loser will have their hopes dashed at the final whistle. If the 49ers prevail, they can still clinch the No 1 seed with a win over the Seahawks in Week 18 owing to already holding the tie-breaker. If the Bears are victorious, they must beat the Lions next week and hope the Seahawks lose at least once to close the season. It is going down to the wire.
What the Bears need to do to win
The Bears’ defense is having an extraordinary year turning the ball over. The ball-hawk brothers Kevin Byard and Nahshon Wright are showing a preternatural ability to read a quarterback’s mind and, as such, Chicago lead the league in interceptions (21) and total turnovers (31).
They need to keep the giveaways flowing to cut the legs from a San Francisco offense quietly becoming a juggernaut. The 49ers’ success has been largely built on Brock Purdy’s return at quarterback, which has laid on a five-game winning streak in which they average a chunky 34.2 points per game. Backup Mac Jones also had success, though not quite as much, with the 49ers scoring 22.8 points per game and posting a 5-3 record under his care.
A major difference is Purdy’s unwavering aggression when pushing the ball downfield. These more dynamic, trigger-happy tendencies can lead to interceptions, as Carolina discovered when picking Purdy off three times in November, only to lose 20-9. What the Bears have that the Panthers did not is an offense capable of outscoring San Francisco if they can pull off a similar trick. Chicago need to be conservative, guard against the big play and patiently await a present from Purdy.
What the 49ers need to do to win
San Francisco need to slow down Chicago’s impressive two-man running attack. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who have 1,728 rushing yards between them, form the best tandem in the NFL outside of Buffalo’s unorthodox combination of James Cook and quarterback Josh Allen.
Swift and Monangai’s old-school power running controls drives and keeps defenses honest as they efficiently chew up yardage from first whistle to last.
The problem for the 49ers is that they have faced plenty of weak rushing attacks and have struggled against teams who run the ball well, such as the Rams. Los Angeles ran for 126 yards and two scores in their 42-26 thrashing of San Francisco in November. The solution may lie in the returns of linebacker Tatum Bethune and lineman Sam Okuayinonu from injury. Both are strong run defenders; both need to be ready to go toe-to-toe with a fierce offensive line and an even fiercer pair of backfield burners. The Bears will control the outcome if Swift and Monangai run riot.
Rising: Pittsburgh Steelers
“I think there’s a mindset that you pay for a ticket, you say whatever the hell you want. I think there should be some sort of code of conduct. Obviously that was intentional and I think there was some celebration afterward on his part,” mused the cerebral quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The depth of thought is still outstripping the arm, then – no change there.
Where change has come for Pittsburgh is finding a cause they can rally behind to bind them as a unit. Rodgers has revealed that the in-house narrative is that DK Metcalf has been treated unfairly, despite the receiver very openly throwing a punch at someone he could barely reach up to in the stands. Hardly a reflexive action to a vicious barb. But the bad man with the blue hair made him do it. Pittsburgh have their edge again.
The entitled fan, and the rest of the NFL kingdom that want the black and gold to fail, are going to pay – even the home bodies chanting for Mike Tomlin to be fired in November. An edge missing on defense during early-season blundering has returned, enhancing an offense scoring in bunches for what feels like the first time in forever. Metcalf will make a triumphant return to save the Steelers on wild-card weekend, should they beat the Browns on Sunday or the Ravens next week, delivering a first playoff win in what also feels like forever. It is written.
Aaron Rodgers has the Steelers on the rise. Detroit on the other hand … Photograph: Nic Antaya/Getty ImagesFalling: Green Bay Packers
The wheels haven’t fallen off completely. The Packers are in the playoffs after the Lions limped out on Christmas Day. Job done. A window to winning the NFC North is still ajar, too, if the Bears lose out and the Packers win out.
But after two successive defeats, Micah Parsons being ruled out for the season and quarterback Jordan Love’s fitness to face Baltimore in question, the omens don’t exactly scream Super Bowl contenders, which they very much were two weeks ago. The offense was exploding into life, leaning on Christian Watson’s deep threat, and Green Bay were leading the AFC-leading Broncos 23-14 early in the third quarter in Mile High.
Defeat from a position of strength followed, as it did again at Soldier Field last week. The old enemy’s Caleb Williams delivered the most brutal of late daggers to extinguish what would have been a gritty victory against the odds. A chance missed to assume the playoff-boosting rallying cry – “nobody believes in us”. Instead, maybe the Packers themselves have lost faith now, too.
Race for the No 1 pick
And then there were two. A pair of 2-13 fall guys sharing respective nine-game doom slides. The Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants sit in pole position for the top pick after Cam Ward’s Tennessee Titans whipped up on the fallen Kansas City Chiefs.
And who might these bottom dwellers be facing this week? Each other. Yes, the bruised, battered and broken bowl comes crunching into focus, likely to settle the battle for good. Two jobbers enter; one leaves unsure whether to laugh or cry. The other lies crippled on the canvas, smiling through blackened teeth. Next year, the pain might just have been worth it.
If the season ended today
AFC 1) Denver 13-3; 2) New England 12-3; 3) Jacksonville 11-4; 4) Pittsburgh 9-6; 5) LA Chargers 11-4; 6) Buffalo 11-4; 7) Houston 10-5. Bubble: Indianapolis 8-6; Baltimore 7-8
NFC 1) Seattle 12-3; 2) Chicago 11-4; 3) Philadelphia 10-5; 4) Carolina 8-7; 5) San Francisco 11-4; 6) LA Rams 11-4; 7) Green Bay 9-5-1. Bubble: Tampa Bay 7-8