Barth’s 5 Things: Patriots still chasing seeding, health, and more in Jets matchup – 98.5 The Sports Hub

The New England Patriots are officially heading back to the playoffs. Yet with two games to go there’s still plenty to accomplish. On top of seeding and a division title though, there’s one other feat the team is focused on heading into Sunday’s matchup with the New York Jets.

“We want to be undefeated on the road,” head coach Mike Vrabel said this week, when discussing his message to the team after clinching the playoff spot. “I think that that’s something that’s unique…that’s something that I think is special.”

With a win over the Jets on Sunday, the Patriots would have just their third unbeaten road season in franchise history. They previously accomplished the feat in 2007 and 2016.

What do the Patriots need to do to check that box? Let’s look at this Sunday’s matchup, and other important topics to follow for Week 17…

Reinforcements coming against the run?Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean/USA Today Network via Imagn Images

Struggles defending the run have been one of the Patriots’ biggest issues in recent weeks. Even when loading the box last week the Patriots had trouble slowing down the run game (until the Baltimore Ravens decided to pull Derrick Henry). That aggressive schematic adjustment seemd to reinforce the point that the issues are based more on personnel – with key run players like Milton Williams and Robert Spillane out – than they are on scheme.

Luckily for the Patriots, help could be coming this week. Milton Williams returned to practice on Wednesday, and is now eligible to return from IR. Williams hasn’t been the only absence but his return would be a huge boost. The Patriots were allowing 3.8 yards per rush over the first 10 weeks of the season before he got hurt, which ranked fourth in the NFL. Since Week 11 (the game Williams left early) the Patriots have allowed 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks 28th.

However, other players will need to step up as the defense still won’t be at full strength. Khyiris Tonga is expected to miss at least this game with a foot injury, and Vrabel said earlier this week he doesn’t expect Spillane to practice this week – putting his status for Sunday in doubt.

In the first matchup of the year between these teams the Jets ran for 140 yards, but a significant chunk of that was on quarterback runs by Justin Fields, including 28 yards (and a touchdown) on the opening drive of the game. Fields is now on IR though, and the Jets will be going with the less mobile Brady Cook for this one.

In terms of traditional runs the Jets ran the ball 16 times for 69 yards good for 4.3 yards per carry, mainly leaning on Breece Hall. Hall has still been producing as the rest of the offense has fallen off, and with the shortcomings of the Jets’ pass game he’ll be a key player for the Patriots to limit in this one.

It is a limited pass game, with multiple quarterbacks and wide receiver Garrett Wilson out. The biggest threat at this point is AD Mitchell, the wide receiver they Jets acquired in the Sauce Garder trade. Mitchell beat Christian Gonzalez a couple of times in the first matchup, but had issues with drops. That will be another matchup to watch in this one.

Opportunities for depth players on offensePaul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Patriots’ offense could be without multiple starters, after multiple players were put into concussion protocol following the Ravens game. Wide receiver Kayshon Boutte and guard Jared Wilson were not at practice to start the week, while TreVeyon Henderson is also in the protocol but was able to participate in a limited capacity on Wednesday (he was also listed as limited on Thursday’s projected injury report).

Henderson has the best chance of the three to play, given he was able to return to practice to start the week. That being said, concussion timelines are already tricky. If Henderson can’t go, the Patriots’ running back depth will be tested once again. Behind Rhamondre Stevenson the team also has D’Ernest Johnson on the practice squad, although he didn’t get the ball much after Henderson got hurt last week.

Then earlier this week the team signed Elijah Mitchell to the practice squad. Mitchell has good experience for a December pickup, with 327 carries over three years with the San Francisco 49ers. It will be interesting to see how involved he is, even if Henderson does play, and if he’s an option as a third running back in the playoffs.

Without Boutte, more snaps would open up for rookie wide receiver Kyle Williams. Williams has made progress in recent weeks after a rougher start to the season, and has made the most of limited opportunities. That includes two catches on three targets while playing 38% of the offensive snaps last week (he also set a key block on the game-winning touchdown run). A bigger role this week – not just in the game but in practice – should help him get more on the same page with Drake Maye.

Meanwhile Ben Brown projects to step in at left tackle if Wilson can’t go, as he has when Wilson has been hurt earlier in the season. Brown has held up well when he’s been added to the lineup this year, both filling in for Wilson and as a sixth offensive lineman in heavy formations, and this week signed a two-year contract extension with the Patriots.

Kickoff coverage unit tested againCorey Perrine/Florida Times-Union

Two weeks ago in their loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots were burned repeatedly in kickoff coverage. Last week the team mostly elected to not chance things, sending their first four kickoffs deep for touchbacks and giving the Ravens the ball at the 35-yard line. Credit to them though, the two they had returned late in the game went for under 30 yards.

This week that unit will get another test. No team in the NFL is averaging more yards per kick return than the Jets, at 30.1 yard per return.

“Great scheme, excellent players, very good returners. We’ll have to cover with a purpose this week,” Vrabel said this week when asked about the Jets’ kick return unit. “We’ll have to make sure that we’re good, that the space is limited, and again, one guy’s probably not going to be able to do it and get him down.”

Will the Patriots give their kickoff coverage unit a chance at redemption this week? Or not test things and keep one of the Jets’ few strong points out of the game, instead being O.K. with giving their weaker offense slightly better field position? At a certain point the Patriots will have to show that their kick coverage has improved, but this may not be the week to test things and allow the Jets to keep the door open in this game.

Contract incentivesJames Lang-Imagn Images

Late in the NFL season, contract incentives always become a part of the storyline. With two weeks to go a few Patriots are getting close to triggering some bonuses in their contracts. Here are a couple to watch for on Sunday via Spotrac:

Hunter Henry: $250,000 at 55 catches, $250,000 at 60 catches, currently at 52 (already hit a $250,000 bonus at 50 catches)

Stefon Diggs: $500,000 at 80 catches, currently at 76 (already hit a $500,000 bonus at 70 catches)

Mack Hollins: $400,000 at 50 catches, currently at 46 (already hit $300,000 each at 30 and 40 catches)

K’Lavon Chaisson: $500,000 at 7 sacks, currently at 6.5 (already hit $1.5 million in playing time bonuses)

Go BirdsEmilee Chinn/Getty Images

If the Patriots win this game, all attention quickly shifts to Orchard Park, New York where the Buffalo Bills will be hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. A Patriots win coupled with a Bills loss would clinch the AFC East for the Patriots.

This is a big game for both teams. The Eagles have already clinched the NFC East but are battling for seeding in a competitive NFC. They’re also trying to get back into shape heading into the playoffs, after a shakey stretch midway through the season.

Meanwhile the Bills are still battling to keep their AFC East hopes alive. However they’re dealing with significant injuries. That includes quarterback Josh Allen, who has been limited all week with a foot injury he suffered last Sunday against the Browns.

Allen being banged up could open the door for the Bills’ run game against the Eagles’ run defense being the key matchup in this one. The Bills have run the ball as well as anybody this season, and James Cook has been their best offensive weapon for a few weeks now. Meanwhile the Eagles’ run defense has had an uncharacteristically down season, but has been much better the last two weeks.

While this game could help the Patriots, it’s not the be-all-end-all. If the Bills win (or if both the Patriots and Bills lose this week), the Patriots could clinch the division with a win over Miami next week regardless of what the Bills do against the Jets. If the Patriots lose, then a Bills win over the Eagles would put them in the driver’s seat for the division heading into Week 18.

Meanwhile, the Patriots also need a win to keep their hopes of the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC alive. However, after beating the Chiefs on Thursday night the Broncos just need a win next week over the Chargers to clinch that, no matter what the Patriots do. If the Chargers lose on Saturday to the Texans though, the Broncos clinch the division and there won’t be much for Los Angeles to play for next week. That makes tomorrow’s game a bit of a scoreboard watch for Patriots too (it’s also just one of the best games on the slate this week).