The Steelers have halted two important patterns in recent weeks in winning games without T.J. Watt and without a turnover advantage. Entering this season, they were 1-11 in games in which Watt did not play. For much of this season, they were also without a win in games in which they were not on the plus side of the turnover ledger. Their ability to overcome both patterns hints at a more resilient team, which is a good sign for the future.
That didn’t happen by accident, of course, particularly with respect to the former. The Steelers saw how much they struggled when they didn’t have T.J. Watt, so they started addressing it. First, they tried veteran supplements like Melvin Ingram, but they have since found success in the draft. Last Sunday, they won without not just Watt but also Nick Herbig, with rookie fourth-round pick Jack Sawyer stepping up.
Prior to last Sunday’s game, the Steelers were also 0-6 when they did not win the turnover battle. That included three games in which they turned the ball over as often as they took it away. Against the Lions, they lost one fumble, in the red zone, and did not take the ball away. They did, however, have a fourth-down stop in the red zone. Or technically two, including the final play of the game, which was technically a “no play”.
Now, the Steelers lean hard into the turnover culture, replete with apparel you can only “purchase” with a football taken from the opposing team. In 15 games, they have forced at least one turnover 10 times and rank fourth in the NFL in total takeaways. But resilient teams also need to find ways to win when they can’t steal extra possessions.
Until recently, the Steelers had not shown themselves to be a team that could overcome some major mistakes. At least not without forcing their opponents into making mistakes of their own. That’s why losing the turnover battle but winning the Lions game was meaningful. Before last Sunday, they couldn’t even win with a neutral outcome in the turnover department.
And as for T.J. Watt, the Steelers’ inability to win without him is rather important right now. Having suffered a partially deflated lung during a dry-needling session, it is unclear when he might return. As an injury that is very uncommon within the athletics sphere, HC Mike Tomlin is very cautious to even comment on it. And it all makes it difficult for even the team and its doctors—and Watt’s doctors—to predict when it is safe for him to play again. While he has returned to practice, the level of his participation in-game, if he even plays, is unknown.
Over the past decade, the Steelers have not had things break their way in the playoffs—over and over again. They have allowed early mistakes to snowball before the game got away from them. Beating the Lions without T.J. Watt while not taking the ball away doesn’t guarantee playoff success. But it is an indication that the Steelers are a more resilient team than perhaps we thought.