NFL Week 18 trending toward being a complete dud

We’re only three games into Week 17, and already 11 of the 14 spots in the NFL postseason are locked up.

In the AFC, two spots remain mathematically available. The AFC North’s spot is still up for grabs between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and the final Wild Card spot has yet to be settled, with the Indianapolis Colts still alive with an outside chance at sneaking into the seventh seed over the Houston Texans. Over in the NFC, only one spot remains available: the winner of the NFC South between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

By Sunday night, all 14 playoff spots could be accounted for with an entire week still left to play.

A Packers win over the Ravens on Saturday, or a Steelers win over the Browns on Sunday, would clinch the AFC North for Pittsburgh. A Texans win over the Chargers on Saturday, or a Colts loss against the Jaguars on Sunday, would solidify Houston’s spot in the postseason. And a Panthers win over the Seahawks, combined with a Buccaneers loss against the Dolphins, would lock up the NFC South for Carolina.

Wins this weekend by the
Dolphins
Packers
Panthers
Jaguars
would completely set the NFL playoff field before Week 18.

— sportswithben (@sportswithben1) December 26, 2025

If every team in the league knows its postseason fate entering Week 18, it’d be a tough scenario for the league. The NFL postpones scheduling Week 18 games until after Week 17 is complete to preserve competitive integrity and maximize drama. Typically, NBC’s Sunday Night Football is given a game with a “win-and-in” scenario. The national windows on CBS and Fox are usually filled with concurrent divisional games whose results directly impact one another. The Week 18 Saturday doubleheader, which will be carried by ABC/ESPN this season, would generally be scheduled with games where at least one team is playing for something important.

All told, that’s at least five nationally televised games that, under normal circumstances, hold substantial playoff implications. Should all of the NFL’s postseason slots be accounted for when Week 17 ends, the league will have to rely on games with a seeding impact to fill its marquee windows.

Luckily, first-round byes in both the AFC and NFC may still be up for grabs in Week 18, which would provide at least some intrigue. Then there are some division battles, with the three-way race for the NFC West being of particular interest. But aside from the first-round byes, fighting for playoff seeding can only be so interesting, primarily when fans are used to do-or-die games to make or miss the postseason in Week 18.

The NFL is undoubtedly hoping that some Week 17 results break its way, and that at least one or two playoff spots are still to be decided next week. If both the Panthers and Buccaneers hold serve this week, they’ll play next week in a win-and-in game. If the Ravens win and the Steelers lose this week, those two teams will play a win-and-in game in Week 18. If the Texans lose and the Colts win this week, those two teams will play each other in a win-and-in game next week.

In other words, there are possibly exciting games to look forward to next week. Those scenarios just aren’t as straightforward as the less exciting alternatives.

Regardless, the NFL will survive. Not every season can have a must-watch final week. And if the worst-case scenario is highlighting some teams fighting for first-round byes, that’s something the league can live with for one season.

Should every slot be accounted for in Week 18, the league would likely look towards Seahawks-49ers for Sunday Night Football, assuming both teams are still in the running for an NFC West title and first-round bye. If the Chargers beat the Texans this week, Chargers-Broncos would be another possibility as the AFC West and a first-round bye would be at stake.

Aside from those matchups, any win-and-in games will surely be featured in national windows. But assuming there’s only one of those (with Panthers-Buccaneers being by far the most likely), that leaves at least two nationally televised games that won’t be for a first-round bye, and won’t be win-and-in.

Unlucky for the NFL, its broadcast partners, and football fans, but not the end of the world.