Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s game between the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 17.
Week 17 of the NFL season kicked off with a trio of games on Christmas Day, but the fun isn’t over yet. On Saturday, two more matchups take place as the first pits the Houston Texans against the Los Angeles Chargers on the West Coast. There are playoff implications at stake here with L.A. having clinched its berth but seeking a favorable matchup in the postseason bracket, while Houston looks to punch its ticket into the final Wild Card spot with a win. These teams squared off in the opening round last year — a matchup in which the Texans’ defense dominated in a 32-12 win. Will we see a similar result in this rematch?
Read on for a Texans vs. Chargers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s contest in NFL Week 17.
Texans vs. Chargers prediction, preview
Given the history between these teams following last season’s playoff blowout, this shapes up as a very fun matchup between a couple of fun and good, but flawed football teams.
Houston Texans
The Texans are the visitors with a 10-5 record on the campaign after rattling off seven straight victories, and with a defense like this one, they could very well extend it to eight on Saturday. Houston has its shares of offensive inconsistencies but those issues are largely made up for by the NFL’s best unit — or a top-three one at absolute worst. The Texans allow a league-low 16.6 points and 274.3 total yards while allowing the third-lowest third-down conversion rate to opponents. Whether through the ground or through the air, this is a difficult unit to attack with top-five marks against the run and pass in terms of yardage allowed. Given the star power of Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, splash plays come at a frequent rate as well. This defense has 41 sacks on the year, tied for eighth-most, along with 1.7 takeaways per game, third-most of any team.
The offense has struggled to post consistent numbers at times, averaging 23.1 points and 323.9 yards per game, both marks which fall 19th overall. A third-down conversion rate of 38.16% isn’t inspiring, nor is the second-lowest red-zone scoring rate in the league. There’s undoubtedly talent here with C.J. Stroud throwing passes to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz, and Woody Marks should rejoin the backfield after missing last week’s game as well. The biggest questions are whether the run game can find room to work and whether the passing attack — 16th in the NFL with 217.2 yards per contest — can make plays against a strong defense here.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have the edge in terms of record this season at 11-4, and they’ve also rattled off four straight wins including standout victories over the Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys. In a way, Los Angeles finds itself in a somewhat similar situation to Houston in that a strong defense is left hoping the offense can match production each week. L.A. allows 20.1 points and 283.1 yards per game, both top-eight marks, as well as the sixth-lowest opponent third-down conversion rate. The Chargers are quite good against the run at ninth in yards allowed but even better against the pass at sixth overall, and they match the Texans with 41 sacks as Tuli Tuipulotu’s 13 pace the group. Takeaways also come often with 1.4 per game, good for seventh in the league behind four interceptions each from Donte Jackson and Tony Jefferson.
Looking towards the other side of the ball the offensive production remains a bit hit-or-miss for the most part. The Chargers average 23.3 points (16th) and 345.5 yards per game (11th), converting third downs at the third-best rate. However, they’re 27th in red-zone scoring percentage, keeping them from accessing the ceiling of the offense. Justin Herbert continues to play through a non-dominant hand issue as Los Angeles averages 220.2 passing yards per game, but the rushing attack sits sixth-best with 125.3 yards per contest as well. However, standout Kimani Vidal (neck) is questionable and could cede more work to Omarion Hampton this week, and an offensive line that was already dealing with numerous injuries could be without Mekhi Becton (knee), who is also questionable.
Texans vs. Chargers pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chargers are 1.5-point favorites at home with -125 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Texans are listed at +105 to win outright with a game total of 39.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 53% of straight bets favor Houston while 50% are on the visitors to cover. On the total, 56% of the wagers favor the over.
This game feels like as much of a pick ’em as you can get. Both teams have top-10 defenses facing inconsistent offenses reinforced by some of the worst offensive lines in football. The Houston defense sees an edge over that of Los Angeles and should wreck havoc in pursuit of Herbert, especially if Becton doesn’t play. The Texans are actually better on that end than they were last time these teams faced off as well, intercepting Herbert four times in the last postseason meeting while also sacking him four times as well. The Chargers’ offense maintains an advantage over their opponent though, especially with a better run game (though that may not ring true against an elite run-stopping unit). This one could truly go either way.
Given how the last meeting between these squads played out, it’s tough not to trust in the tough, hard-hitting identity of this Texans defense once more in the rematch. They simply need to bottle up the run and pressure Herbert enough throughout the game to keep him out of rhythm. Yes, the Chargers’ own defense could largely shut down Stroud, Collins and Marks here, but we’ve seen this Houston group win ugly, low-scoring affairs numerous times this season on the backs of its defensive playmakers. The total remains so low for a reason, but even at a combined 39.5 points, this feels like a defensive slugfest that ends in something like a 17-13 final. The under still holds value in this spot.
Best bet: Under 39.5 points (-110)