Chargers can take step to AFC West title

NFL Week 17 picks include Jaguars, Steelers and Niners

Lorenzo Reyes shares his three picks for NFL games through Christmas week.

Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL‘s ever-evolving playoff picture – typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we’ll be watching then, too).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized Sunday, Jan. 4.

Here’s where things stand with Week 17 underway:

NFC playoff picture

x − 1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3), NFC West leaders: Splitting their season series with the Rams in Week 16’s classic means they’ll wind up with the No. 1 seed if they win their final two games. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at 49ers

x − 2. Chicago Bears (11-4), NFC North leaders: A remarkable overtime win against Green Bay in Week 16 helped them clinch a playoff berth − cemented by Detroit’s loss Sunday. Chicago is also still in play for the NFC’s No. 1 seed and will win the division with one more win or Packers loss. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Lions

y – 3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5), NFC East champions: With Week 16’s defeat of Washington, they became the first team this season to wrap up a division − and the first to win this division in successive years since they last did it 21 years ago. Philly’s victory also officially knocked the hated Cowboys out of playoff contention. Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Commanders

4. Carolina Panthers (8-7), NFC South leaders: Their defeat of the Bucs last Sunday moved them into first place. They can win the division in Week 17 with a win and Tampa Bay loss. A Week 18 defeat of the Buccaneers would also do the job regardless of circumstances. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers

x − 5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4), wild card No. 1: Win out, which would entail completing a season sweep of Seattle on the final weekend of the regular season, and the Niners would get the No. 1 seed. Continue winning, and they won’t leave their stadium again this season − which would mean playing Super Bowl 60 at Levi’s Stadium. A 4-1 record in NFC West games moved them ahead of the Rams on Monday. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks

x − 6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4), wild card No. 2: They became the first team to clinch a playoff spot but lost the inside track for home-field advantage and a first-round bye after failing to sweep Seattle. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Cardinals

x − 7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1), wild card No. 3: The Lions’ Christmas night loss locked the battered Pack into the field. Good thing as QB Jordan Love (concussion) was downgraded to out Friday, though RB Josh Jacobs and others will apparently play Saturday against Baltimore − Green Bay still in the mix to win the NFC North and ensure a home playoff game at Lambeau Field. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Vikings

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8), in the hunt: (Their record is actually worse than the Vikings’, Lions’ and Cowboys’ in the overall NFC standings, hence the 11th place designation.) Week 16’s loss in Charlotte was Tampa Bay’s sixth in its last seven outings. But win their last two games, and the Bucs will retain the NFC South crown by a one-game margin in the common-games tiebreaker over Carolina (assuming the Panthers also finish 9-8). Beating Miami ensures Buccaneers will play for the division in Week 18; lose, and they could be finished. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins, vs. Panthers

AFC playoff picture

x − 1. Denver Broncos (13-3), AFC West leaders: After surviving the Chiefs on Christmas night, win in Week 18, and Denver gets the top seed … and might even have it by Sunday. A Bolts loss Saturday wraps up the division for the Broncos. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers

x − 2. New England Patriots (12-3), AFC East leaders: Officially headed to the playoffs, the Pats are also still in driver’s seat to win AFC East and just a tiebreaker (common games) of sitting atop the conference if they continue to match the Broncos win for win. Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Dolphins.

x − 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4), AFC South leaders: They won their seventh straight Sunday with an impressive win over Denver. The Colts‘ loss Monday stamped the Jags’ playoff invite. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Titans

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6), AFC North leaders: Their win Sunday in Motown clinched spots in the NFC field for the Bears and 49ers. No matter what else happens over the next two games, sweep the Ravens, and Pittsburgh secures the division. A win Sunday in Cleveland will also sew up the division … if the Ravens don’t do it first by losing on Saturday night. Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Ravens

x − 5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4), wild card No. 1: The Bolts have now won seven of eight, and Indy’s Monday night loss put them in the playoffs for the second straight year. A half-game advantage in AFC games (8-2) keeps them ahead of Buffalo. Win out, and the Chargers win the AFC West … and maybe more. Lose Saturday, and they hit the wild-card road. Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, at Broncos

x − 6. Buffalo Bills (11-4), wild card No. 2: Still alive to win their sixth straight AFC East crown, the Bills were guaranteed at least their playoff shot with the Colts’ loss Monday. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, vs. Jets

7. Houston Texans (10-5), wild card No. 3: They’ve won eight of nine, including seven in a row, but haven’t been able to overtake similarly surging Jacksonville yet for the top spot in the AFC South. But beat the Bolts on Saturday afternoon, and the Texans are assured of at least a wild card. A Colts loss Sunday would achieve the same result for Houston, which still has a shot to win the division for a third straight season. Remaining schedule: at Chargers, vs. Colts

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-7), in the hunt: Now in the hands of 44-year-old QB Philip Rivers, who hasn’t been able to engineer a win despite two valiant attempts, their 7-1 start seems like ancient history. One more loss or Houston win eliminates Indy. Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, at Texans

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-8), in the hunt: They lost control of their playoff path with Week 16’s loss to New England and can be eliminated Saturday night by a loss at Green Bay or even a Pittsburgh win Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Packers, at Steelers

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 17

Denver clinches AFC West and AFC’s No. 1 seed with:

▶ Chargers loss or tie + Patriots loss + Bills loss or tie + Jaguars loss or tie

Denver clinches AFC West with:

▶ Chargers loss or tie

Jacksonville clinches AFC South with:

Win + Texans loss or tie ORTie + Texans loss

New England clinches AFC East with:

Win + Bills loss or tie ORTie + Bills loss

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:

Win or tie ORRavens loss or tie

Houston clinches playoff berth with: